It hasn't been a good season for the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints went all-in for a Super Bowl this year with their off-season moves. By giving Jairus Byrd a huge contract, trading up to draft Brandin Cooks and re-signing Jimmy Graham to a long-term deal, the Saints kept their most important pieces in place and seemingly addressed important needs. However, it soon became clear that Byrd wasn't going to be as effective as advertised, while the offense as a whole was putting up decent numbers without being overly impressive.
Part of the reason that the Saints were aggressive last season had to be Drew Brees' age.
The Saints starting quarterback is now 35 years of age and if his recent play is anything to go by, he is beginning to decline. Brees has thrown for 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season, with 3,071 yards on 417 pass attempts. Although those are fine total numbers, the explosiveness of the passing game has been absent this year and Brees has made a number of very costly errors late on in games.
Typically, the first sign of a declining quarterback is a significant decline in deep accuracy. A quarterback's arm strength is bound to fade over years of usage combined with the effects of ageing, so it's natural that the deep ball becomes more difficult to throw. Brees hasn't been an accurate deep pass thrower this year and it is reflected in his statistics. Through 10 games this year, Brees has just 29 20+ passing plays and six 40+ passing plays. Through 16 games last season, he had 67 20+ yard plays and 15 40+ yard plays.
Brees is on course for his fewest big plays of the past four seasons, despite being on course to throw for more passes than he did in two of those years.
On this play, Brandin Cooks is wide open running across the middle of the field. Brees isn't under any pressure in the pocket and he doesn't need to rush to fit the ball into a tight window. Whether the quarterback simply tried too hard to fit the ball into Cooks with precision or he just missed the throw because of the added effort it takes now, this was an inexcusable miss from the quarterback. Even if he didn't throw the ball perfectly on time or with great velocity, he would have had plenty of time to hold the ball or let the ball float somewhat into space.
This throw can be calssified as deep, but it's not exceptionally deep. Brees isn't being asked to hit a receiver 40 yards down the sideline. It's a pass that should be routine for a quarterback of his standing.
A few plays after this one, Brees just slightly overthrew his tight end running down the seam. On the following drive, he connected with Marques Colston on a similar route to the missed throw to Cooks. Colston came back two plays later with an outstanding catch on a sideline pass roughly 15 yards down the field. Colston and Brees came close to another 15-20 yard pass in the third quarter, but the receiver was crowded out by the sideline.
Ever since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, Brees has had major deep ball issues. The Saints have seemingly adjusted their offense to not take deep shots, instead focusing on more intermediate throws in the 15-20 yards to gain range.
Not until the fourth quarter did Brees push the ball down the field again. Once more, his pass was off target as he overthrew Marques Colston on a deep post route. Brees was very fortunate not to be intercepted on this occasion. On Third-and-12 immediately after this play, Brees forced the ball to a covered Colston in a similar area of the field. He was fortunate not to be intercepted again, but at this stage of the game he was forcing passes because of the scoreline and dwindling time left on the clock.
Brees is still at the point of his career in an offense that will allow him to be one of the more productive starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Losing his deep ball is going to hamper his potential and it likely signals a decline that will take him away from being a top five quarterback next season. Brees likely hasn't got long left as a top tier fantasy quarterback.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
It was a HUGE week for Mike Evans against the Washington defense. Evans put up 209 yards on seven receptions, with multiple 50+ yard receptions. Recently I wrote that Evans would become a touchdown-reliant fantasy receiver because of the insertion of Josh McCown into the starting lineup. McCown made a number of throws I simply don't expect him to make consistently against a poor secondary on Sunday. Maybe that continues, but I'd still bet against it until we can see it a couple more times.
Arian Foster has been arguably the best back in the NFL this season. He has been DeMarco Murray without the fumbles. The only negative on Foster this season has been his injury issues. Last week, Alfred Blue got an opportunity against the Cleveland Browns. Blue played well, but his offensive line dominated the Browns front to make his job very easy.
Speaking of easy running back jobs, Jonas Gray benefited from the dominating performance of the New England Patriots offensive line against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. Gray isn't a special talent, but much like BenJarvus Green-Ellis of previous seasons, he is reliable and smart enough to make the right decision on every play. So long as Gray is doing that, he should be productive, but his limited talent should make you cautious when considering a long term investment.
It's a really good time to be a young receiver in the NFL. Part of it is the rules and part of it is the culture of the league moving towards more of an emphasis on the passing game. Two players who are standing out more than their peers are DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr Both players continue to be consistent with the opportunities that they are afforded, even if those opportunities are fewer than they should be. Both players should be hot dynasty draft picks/trade targets.
On the other side of the wide receiver sphere, Cordarrelle Patterson and Brandin Cooks have struggled to varying degrees. Cooks is now injured, while Patterson couldn't create separation down the field against the porous Chicago Bears secondary. It wouldn't surprise me if Patterson was traded in the offseason because he continues to be ineffective and the Vikings continue to avoid being creative with his usage.
Ryan Tannehill and Bill Lazor both showed up brilliantly in the Miami Dolphins' biggest game of the season last Thursday night. Tannehill needed to be very quick with his actions on the field to overcome the matchup problems that the Bills defensive line created, and he did that, while Lazor helped him with better play-calling. Lazor focused on getting rid of the ball quickly and sent receivers on fewer deep routes.
In that game, Kyle Orton continued to struggle after the previous week's late-game disappointment. Orton has never been a great quarterback and nobody expected him to be that, but he needs to be better than he has been lately to keep this offense on track. As bad as he has been, it seems unlikely that the team would go back to EJ Manuel at this stage.
Ryan Mallett's big debut for the Texans was certainly interesting. He was fortunate to avoid multiple touchdowns with poor decisions/throws, but he also showed off his arm strength on a regular basis. A perfectly thrown fade route to J.J. Watt didn't hurt either. On the whole, Mallett was a tough evaluation because the Browns defense seemed overwhelmed in every facet. Mallett would have had to do a lot to lose that game for the Texans.
The Chicago Bears got back on track, kind of...last week. Jay Cutler and his wide receivers showed off a good rapport, but the story of the game came in the trenches, where Jermon Bushrod and the rest of the Bears offensive line stood out. Bushrod dominated Everson Griffen. The Bears beat the Vikings largely because of the difference between the two teams' offensive lines. The Vikings offensive line is preventing them from running an effective offense, with Matt Kalil continuing to be a disaster.
Shaun Hill was very effective in relief for Austin Davis for the St. Louis Rams. A huge reason for that was Kenny Britt's reminder of his exceptional talent. Britt is an incredible player when he is as effective as he can be, borderline uncoverable because of his combination of technique and physical talent. Of course, we've fallen down this hole too many times before with Britt so it's hard to buy into him now.
The release of Ben Tate by the Cleveland Browns shouldn't come as a major shock to anyone. Tate is a limited player who didn't receive a big deal on the free agent market. Both rookies Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have performed better than him this season. Crowell is likely the bigger benefactor of this move, but even he has limited upside because the Browns' rushing attack looks much less effective without Alex Mack at center.
The return of Josh Gordon to the Browns is going to be fascinating for a couple of reasons. Despite Gordon's production last season, he was still a developing player who needed to refine his routes. Time away from football likely hasn't helped his development, so his early games will be interesting to watch. Furthermore, Kyle Shanahan's offense has largely relied on misdirection and masked routes to get WRs/TEs open down the field. Gordon may not be the focal point for deep shots in this offense.
Zach Mettenberger received a lot of praise for his Monday night performance against the Steelers. While his numbers were decent, it's hard for me to be too optimistic about the gangly quarterback. His ball placement was consistently poor and most of his positive work came in situations where the Steelers couldn't get any sort of pass rush and his receivers were wide open. Tennessee has been a great place to to play quarterback recently, but the Steelers' lack of talent on defense exasperated that.
