True Fantasy Points: 2017 Wide Receiver Projections

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

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This is the third installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2017. If you missed the previous installments or want more details of my statistical methodology, here are the relevant links:

1. Quarterback TFP
2. Running back TFP

Below are the three efficiency stats I'll be using to evaluate wide receivers and calculate their TFP. For the edification of newcomers, I've also included the number of routes a given stat takes to represent less than 50 percent luck, and therefore become a reliable indicator of a wide receiver's "true" ability:

• Receptions per route run (RPRR) stabilizes after 188 routes
• Yards per route run (YPRR) stabilizes after 351 routes
• Touchdowns per route run (TDPRR) stabilizes after 882 routes

True Stats Through 2016

Below are actual and "true" per-route stats for the 87 wide receivers that are a) playing on the same team they did last year, and b) projected to see 100 or more fantasy-scoring opportunities (i.e., carries plus routes run). The table is sorted by YPRR, with the Top 6 in each "true" stat category displayed in bold, and the Bottom 6 displayed in italics.

Perusing the table, it should be abundantly clear that my "true" wide receiver stats pass the smell test. To wit, only seven wide receivers rank in the Top 18 of all three "true" stat categories, and five of these seven are literally the Top 5 off the board per ADP right now. And who's the only wide receiver to rank in the Top 6 of all three "true" stat categories? (Mildly) arguably the best wide receiver talent in the game today, Odell Beckham, Jr.

I'll discuss the somewhat-surprising sixth later, but the total surprise among these seven statistical studs is Tyreek Hill. In fewer than 400 routes run with the Chiefs, he's already No. 1 in True RPRR (along with No. 12 in True YPRR and No. 13 in True TDPRR). He should be a target in drafts regardless of format and a must-have in PPR leagues.

Two other wide receivers are worth noting for their "true" stats. First, Dez Bryant is No. 1 in True TDPRR. Any potential Ezekiel Elliott absence will catalyze Bryant's penchant for touchdowns. But even if Elliott somehow avoids the Ginger Hammer, Dak Prescott's growth in his second season should be more than enough to sustain Bryant's TDPRR.

Second, wow, Nelson Agholor is awful. Ever sinnce the Eagles traded Jordan Matthews, Agholor's been mentioned as a sleeper candidate. One look at the bottom of the above table, which shows that he's last or second-to-last in all three "true" stat categories, should be persuasive enough to stay woke. (That's the first and last time I'll ever use that term.)

True Projections for 2017

The table below displays David Dodds' standard-scoring projections, my TFP projections, and the difference between the two (i.e., sorted by the "DIFF" column):

Below are three underrated wide receivers -- bottom of the table -- and three overrated wide receivers -- top of the table -- worth further discussion.

Underrated: Larry Fitzgerald

Going into last season, Dodds projected Fitzgerald for an 83-955-7 stat line, whereas I identified him as an underrated wide receiver due to TFP projecting an 83-1,079-8 stat line. Fitzgerald finished 2016 with a stat line of 107-1,023-6. Heading into 2017, it's deja vu. Fitzgerald has a True YPRR of 1.87 with the Cardinals, whereas Dodds' projections imply 1.54. Fitzgerald has a 1.28% True TDPRR, whereas Dodds' projections imply 0.96%.

Methinks the issue here is that Dodds thought the old man was going to fall off an efficiency cliff last season and is (reasonably) going to the well once again because the old man is even older. In contrast, my TFP system knew nothing of Fitzgerald's age last year, nor this year; only his efficiency across more than 6,000 routes run in Arizona over the past decade. But of course, players don't sustain their "true" stats forever. There has to come a point when Fitzgerald actually does fall of that effiency cliff. So what's the probability of that?

Well, our colleague Adam Harstad has calculated the "Death Rate" for wide receivers at a given age, and his math says that an average 34-year old has a 43.3 percent chance of falling off a cliff; up from 34.4 percent for a 33-year old. Therefore, compared to the average 34-year old wide receiver, Fitzgerald has better than a 50/50 shot to sustain his production. (Of note: Fitzgerald is not your average 34-year old wide receiver.)

Underrated: Demaryius Thomas

First and foremost, it's time to tie up a loose end: Thomas was the other wide receiver (of seven) that ranks in the Top 18 across all three "true" stat categories. Given his aforementioned company, that alone should be enough to establish his underrated bona fides. Alas, I presume readers want more.

The discrepancy between Dodds and TFP for Thomas is completely explained by YPRR. Namely, Thomas' YPRR across 3,000+ routes run in Denver is 2.35, which translates to a True YPRR of 2.30. Meanwhile, Dodds' projections imply a drop to 2.09 YPRR. That may not seem like much, but 0.21 YPRR over the course of 534 projected routes works out to over 100 additional receiving yards.

Underrated: Doug Baldwin

Ditto for Baldwin. Across 2,500+ routes run with the Seahawks, he's posted a YPRR of 1.92. But while both Dodds and TFP foresee regression in 2017, Dodds does more so. As displayed in the earlier table, Baldwin's True YPRR is 1.91, whereas Dodds' projection implies a YPRR of 1.79. And again, although it doesn't seem like much, .12 YPRR over the course of 620 projected routes translates to about 75 additional receiving yards.

Overrated: Antonio Brown

Brown's scored 50 touchdowns despite running over 3,300 routes for the Steelers for an unadjusted TDPRR of 1.49% and a True TDPRR of 1.41%. Meanwhile, Dodds projection of 13 receving touchdowns in 600 implied routes run translates to a TDPRR of 2.17%. To put how outlying this is into perspective, one need only to refer back to the earlier table, where Dez Bryant ranks No. 1 with a mere 1.86% True TDPRR. If that doesn't sway you, how about this perspective? Given his True TDPRR, Brown could also score 13 touchdowns by running nearly 1,000 routes this season, which is literally unprecedented since routes run has existed.

Overrated: Julio Jones

Jones is in the same boat as Brown. In nearly 2,900 routes with the Falcons, his TDPRR is 1.40%, which translates to a 1.34% True TDPRR. Dodds' projections imply a TDPRR of 1.76%.

If that's not enough, let me remind you that, as I detailed in the 2017 quarterback TFP article, Matt Ryan is due for a massive regression to the mean this season.

Overrated: Jarvis Landry

I assure you that this has nothing to do with Jay Cutler replacing an injured Ryan Tannehill, nor do I seek to exploit the recent buzz surrounding DeVante Parker. Rather, Landry is overrated per TFP because Dodds's projections imply a 2.19 YPRR and 1.08% TDPRR when his actual values across 1,500 routes run in Miami are 2.03 and 0.87%, and his "true" values are 1.99 and 0.97%.

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