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Looks like Aaron Rodgers is headed to Pittsburgh. Then again, we’ve thought that before, so let's wait to see the contract signed. Steelers fans, grab your Terrible Towels… and maybe a stress ball. This is going to be a ride.
Today’s lineup is loaded:
Gary Davenport breaks down why he’s worried about Saquon Barkley. And it’s not the Madden Curse. Sigmund Bloom drops his Top 250, akathe sacred scroll of preseason prep. Print it. Highlight it. Frame it. Trust it.
Then Jason Wood unpacks 15 Make-or-Break WR Situations. The ones that’ll turn your WR3 into a league-winner... or a waiver wire regular by Week 3.
And Cecil Lammey’s got your News and Notes. Because let’s be honest, if you’re not tracking minicamp blurbs, are you even trying?
Whether you’re mocking with friends or mock-drafting in secret tabs at work, we’re glad you’re here.
Let’s go,
J
PS. In honor of Father’s Day, we’re collecting short stories about the dads, granddads, or father figures who have made fantasy football special. We may feature a few in the Daily Email Update, on social, or in an upcoming article or podcast. Share Your Story 👉
What's New At Footballguys
Bloom's PPR Top 250 – Where does Garrett Wilson land in Sigmund Bloom’s early PPR Top 250? This list sets the tone for the 2025 draft season.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: Will Saquon Barkley be a fantasy bust in 2025?
Free-agent QB Aaron Rodgers (Jets) reportedly informed the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, June 5, that he intends to sign the contract with the team and attend minicamp next week, according to sources.
Our view: Finally! According to reports, the contract terms have been in place for months. Rodgers is expected to play for around $20 million this year (he's said as much publicly). While no longer the elite gunslinger he used to be, Rodgers should be able to operate the Arthur Smith offense precisely and efficiently.
Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts could be available for trade as the team isn't necessarily turning calls away for him, according to NFL insider Adam Schefter. The problem is Pitts is in the last year of his rookie deal, and he's owed nearly $11 million.
Our view: That salary and the draft capital to acquire him may be too much for bidders, according to Schefter.
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Last year, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley turned in an all-time season. Barkley hurdled his way to 2,005 yards on 345 carries, becoming the ninth member of "The 2K Club" on the way to helping lead the Philadelphia Eagles to a victory in Super Bowl LIX. Had Barkley played in Week 18 and posted the 125.3 rushing yards per game he averaged in the regular season, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. His 22 PPR points per game led all running backs.
Not surprisingly, Barkley's massive 2024 campaign has led to him being one of the first players selected in fantasy drafts this year. His early ADP is the first running back off the board and the second player selected overall.
However, those fantasy managers taking that early swing at Barkley are making the sort of mistake that can wreck a season before it even begins. Multiple factors suggest Barkley will take a major step backward in 2025. A number of reasons to expect that Barkley will be unable to duplicate his success from a year ago.
In fact, it's entirely possible that when the dust settles on this year's campaign, Barkley will have earned a far different moniker than the one he claimed a year ago.
Rather than being arguably fantasy football's most valuable player, Barkley is going to be fantasy's biggest bust.
The Madden Curse
In news that should surprise no one, Barkley was selected by Electronic Arts to be the cover athlete for Madden NFL 26. The 28-year-old told the team's website that he's honored to have been selected for the team's cover.
"Starring on the cover of Madden NFL 26 and being named to the Madden NFL 99 Club are both dreams come true," said Barkley. "I'm grateful to my teammates, coaches, and Eagles fans for their support, and I can't wait to hit the field again to give Madden players more highlight-reel moments in Madden NFL 26."
Of course, appearing on the game's cover puts Barkley in the crosshairs of the "Madden Curse," an insidious supernatural force that is exactly as real as the idea that if you say "Candyman" into a mirror, a hook-handed monster will chop you into bits and pieces.
In other words, it's a load of crap.
As the Footballguy himself (the inestimable Joe Bryant) wrote, many more players have met or even exceeded fantasy expectations the season after a Madden appearance than those who came up short. Yes, there are a couple of running backs who flamed out in Cleveland's Payton Hillis (2011) and San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey (2024). But Hillis was a one-hit wonder who just wasn't an especially good player, and McCaffrey's injury history wasn't exactly a state secret entering last year.
There are plenty of things for Barkley drafters to legitimately worry about.
The Madden Curse ain't one of them.
Barkley's 2024 Workload is a Massive Red Flag
The Madden Curse may be bunk, but the Curse of 370 most assuredly is not.
As I wrote recently here at FBG, The Curse of 370 was discovered by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders over two decades ago. It states that if a running back has 370 or more carries in a season, they will spontaneously combust in Week 1 of the following year and collapse in a pile of ash.
Wait. That's not it. But the reality is only marginally less horrifying.
Since 1980, 30 running backs have surpassed 370 carries in a season. Of that bunch, one back (Eric Dickerson in 1984--when he set the aforementioned rushing record) gained more rushing yards the next year. Most missed time. Forty percent saw their production drop by over half. The average decrease in production topped 40 percent.
Depressed yet? Well, grab the Zoloft--because the Curse extends to 370 touches as well.
Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, a pair (Clinton Portis in 2008 and Ray Rice in 2011) gained more total yardage the following year. An equal number (Rice and Adrian Peterson in 2009) saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases--the kind of dip a drafter can live with.
The rest. POOF! Ashtray-time.
Don't believe me? Here's a look at the 370-touch running backs from the past decade.
The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.
Updating a previous report, Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) is not expected to need to undergo surgery on his injured shoulder.
Our view: Good news for Richardson here....well, as much as it can be. The Colts are going to be cautious with the former first-round quarterback as he recovers from this latest injury. Daniel Jones was there to compete with Richardson for the starting job, but now he may just have that spot.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) aggravated the right AC joint in his shoulder recently, according to head coach Shane Steichen. Per Steichen, the team hopes Richardson can return to practice 'at some point' during training camp.
Our view: Daniel Jones is there to compete for the starting job with Richardson. If Richardson is out, then Jones gets a clear advantage. Richardson has a ton of talent, but he's as oft-injured as they get. He needs to get healthy, stay healthy, and win the job in training camp or the Colts just roll with Jones as their starter.
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) told reporters on Thursday, June 5, that he underwent cleanup knee surgery in the offseason.
Our view: While St. Brown has not participated during the offseason program, he fully expects to be ready for training camp in July. He's in line for another huge season as the no.1 receiver for the Lions, so St. Brown is a clear-cut WR1 and set-it-and-forget-it starter for Fantasy GMs out there.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has started preliminary talks with the Ravens about a possible contract extension, according to general manager Eric DeCosta.
Our view: Jackson is under contract through 2027, as he signed a five-year, $260 million contract with the Ravens in 2023. There is no rush to get this deal done, but the quarterback market is crazy so perhaps the sooner the better for the Ravens.
Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. (undisclosed) limped off the field and did not return to practice after getting tangled up while running a route on Thursday, June 5.
Our view: We don't know the severity of this injury yet, so we'll have to wait for further reports. Pittman has been working out with QB Daniel Jones this offseason. With a questionable quarterback situation, we like Pittman as a WR4 for Fantasy GMs.
Las Vegas Raiders WR Dont'e Thornton is a player who has 'some real receiver capabilities to him' and 'not just a guy that can run fast,' according to fellow receiver Jakobi Meyers.'Dont'e is unique in terms of he's just a hair under 6-5 and he ran 4.3. There's not a lot of humans on this planet that do that. And I think if you had to draw up an outside receiver, you would pick that type of body type, someone that's got length, someone that's got a huge catch radius, but also has speed. Sometimes you can get a big guy like that, but he can't really run, so they can stay with him. So, you add that speed element to him, his ability to sink his hips, his ability to get in and out of cuts,' offensive coordinator Chip Kelly said.
Our view: Thornton can make plays down the field as evidenced by his last year at Tennessee when he led the FBS with 25.4 yards per reception. Right now, Thornton is a speed merchant who can take the top off the defense. Thornton is competing with fellow rookie Jack Bech for spots behind Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker.
Chicago Bears TE Joel Wilson and RB Kyle Monangai were identified by head coach Ben Johnson as two of the players who have stood out on offense this spring.
Our view: Let's put a pin in this news item and circle back when the Bears are in training camp and the preseason. During OTAs, Fantasy GMs should be listening for 'drum beats' of information. This one is loud and clear coming from Johnson. Manangai is the no.3 back behind D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. Wilson is the competing for a roster spot in the tight end room behind Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland.
Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams, RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta are a few of the players who have stood out the most to head coach Dan Campbell this spring.
Our view: These are players we should expect to stand out at OTAs. Williams is coming off a career year in 2024, and he could post even better numbers this year. Gibbs is a stud running back who stars as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. LaPorta is a playmaker tight end who could finish in the top-5 at his position. We love the update from coach Campbell, but everyone pretty much knows these guys will be stand out players in 2025.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has not participated in voluntary workouts after initially attending them and made it clear that he is frustrated with the lack of progress toward a long-term deal, according to sources.
Our view: McLaurin was at OTAs but left in frustration. Now, we are not sure of his intent for mandatory minicamp next week. The Commanders need to take care of QB Jayden Daniels' favorite target, and deals get done at deadlines. We could see McLaurin at mandatory work next week, but he may be held out of practice in some sort of 'hold in' situation. Stay tuned.
Thanks for being part of the Footballguys family. And for spending a few minutes of your day with us. We don’t take it for granted.
With Father’s Day around the corner and the season creeping closer, now’s the time to fire up the grill, queue up those mock drafts, and if you’re a Steelers fan: get your popcorn ready. Rodgers as a Steeler may or may not work. But it's sure to be interesting.
We’ll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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