Last year, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley turned in an all-time season. Barkley hurdled his way to 2,005 yards on 345 carries, becoming the ninth member of "The 2K Club" on the way to helping lead the Philadelphia Eagles to a victory in Super Bowl LIX. Had Barkley played in Week 18 and posted the 125.3 rushing yards per game he averaged in the regular season, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. His 22 PPR points per game led all running backs.
Not surprisingly, Barkley's massive 2024 campaign has led to him being one of the first players selected in fantasy drafts this year. His early ADP is the first running back off the board and the second player selected overall.
However, those fantasy managers taking that early swing at Barkley are making the sort of mistake that can wreck a season before it even begins. Multiple factors suggest Barkley will take a major step backward in 2025. A number of reasons to expect that Barkley will be unable to duplicate his success from a year ago.
In fact, it's entirely possible that when the dust settles on this year's campaign, Barkley will have earned a far different moniker than the one he claimed a year ago.
Rather than being arguably fantasy football's most valuable player, Barkley is going to be fantasy's biggest bust.
The Madden Curse
In news that should surprise no one, Barkley was selected by Electronic Arts to be the cover athlete for Madden NFL 26. The 28-year-old told the team's website that he's honored to have been selected for the team's cover.
"Starring on the cover of Madden NFL 26 and being named to the Madden NFL 99 Club are both dreams come true," said Barkley. "I'm grateful to my teammates, coaches, and Eagles fans for their support, and I can't wait to hit the field again to give Madden players more highlight-reel moments in Madden NFL 26."
Of course, appearing on the game's cover puts Barkley in the crosshairs of the "Madden Curse," an insidious supernatural force that is exactly as real as the idea that if you say "Candyman" into a mirror, a hook-handed monster will chop you into bits and pieces.
In other words, it's a load of crap.
As the Footballguy himself (the inestimable Joe Bryant) wrote, many more players have met or even exceeded fantasy expectations the season after a Madden appearance than those who came up short. Yes, there are a couple of running backs who flamed out in Cleveland's Payton Hillis (2011) and San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey (2024). But Hillis was a one-hit wonder who just wasn't an especially good player, and McCaffrey's injury history wasn't exactly a state secret entering last year.
There are plenty of things for Barkley drafters to legitimately worry about.
The Madden Curse ain't one of them.
Barkley's 2024 Workload is a Massive Red Flag
The Madden Curse may be bunk, but the Curse of 370 most assuredly is not.
As I wrote recently here at FBG, The Curse of 370 was discovered by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders over two decades ago. It states that if a running back has 370 or more carries in a season, they will spontaneously combust in Week 1 of the following year and collapse in a pile of ash.
Wait. That's not it. But the reality is only marginally less horrifying.
Since 1980, 30 running backs have surpassed 370 carries in a season. Of that bunch, one back (Eric Dickerson in 1984--when he set the aforementioned rushing record) gained more rushing yards the next year. Most missed time. Forty percent saw their production drop by over half. The average decrease in production topped 40 percent.
Depressed yet? Well, grab the Zoloft--because the Curse extends to 370 touches as well.
Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, a pair (Clinton Portis in 2008 and Ray Rice in 2011) gained more total yardage the following year. An equal number (Rice and Adrian Peterson in 2009) saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases--the kind of dip a drafter can live with.
The rest. POOF! Ashtray-time.
Don't believe me? Here's a look at the 370-touch running backs from the past decade.
| Player | High-Touch Season | Next Season Played | % Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Touches | PPR Pts | Games | PPR Pts | ||
| David Johnson (AZ) | 2016 | 373 | 411.8 | 1 | 15.1 | -96.33% |
| Le'Veon Bell (PIT) | 2017 | 406 | 345.6 | 15 (2019) | 215 | -37.99% |
| Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) | 2018 | 381 | 331.1 | 16 | 315.7 | -4.65% |
| Christian McCaffrey (CAR) | 2019 | 403 | 469.2 | 3 | 90.3 | -80.75% |
| Derrick Henry (TEN) | 2020 | 397 | 335.1 | 8 | 187.1 | -44.17% |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 2021 | 372 | 377.1 | 11 | 152.4 | -59.59% |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 2021 | 381 | 300.7 | 17 | 227.3 | -24.41% |
| Derrick Henry (TEN) | 2022 | 382 | 304.6 | 17 | 238.1 | -21.83% |
| Josh Jacobs (LV) | 2022 | 393 | 330.3 | 13 | 183.1 | -44.57% |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 2024 | 378 | 351.3 | ??? | ??? | ??? |
Look at that table of terrible. Look at it!
Arizona's David Johnson made it one game into the 2017 campaign before suffering a season-ending injury. Le'Veon Bell sat out all of 2018 in a contract kerfuffle. Christian McCaffrey played in just three games in 2020--and he wasn't even on the "Madden" cover that year.
Tennessee's Derrick Henry was actually on an even more torrid pace in 2021 than the season before. But then he broke his foot, and POOF! Dust in the Wind.
Too much?
Only Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys experienced a drop in fantasy production under 20%. If you use Bell's 2019 numbers instead of just zeroing him out, the average decrease in fantasy production for 370-touch backs the past 10 years is over 49 percent.
Take away 49 percent of Barkley's 2024 numbers, and he goes from RB2 overall to RB28.
Did I Mention Barkley's Workload?
Of course, Barkley's season didn't end with his sitting out Week 18. The Eagles went on to win it all, and Barkley played a big part in that. Barkley amassed 104 more total touches in the playoffs. That left Barkley with a staggering 482 total touches for the season--tied for the 10th-most ever.
Wonder what happened to the other guys?