Saquon Barkley: The Biggest Fantasy Bust of 2025

Last year, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley turned in an all-time season. Barkley hurdled his way to 2,005 yards on 345 carries, becoming the ninth member of "The 2K Club" on the way to helping lead the Philadelphia Eagles to a victory in Super Bowl LIX. Had Barkley played in Week 18 and posted the 125.3 rushing yards per game he averaged in the regular season, he would have broken Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. His 22 PPR points per game led all running backs.

Not surprisingly, Barkley's massive 2024 campaign has led to him being one of the first players selected in fantasy drafts this year. His early ADP is the first running back off the board and the second player selected overall.

However, those fantasy managers taking that early swing at Barkley are making the sort of mistake that can wreck a season before it even begins. Multiple factors suggest Barkley will take a major step backward in 2025. A number of reasons to expect that Barkley will be unable to duplicate his success from a year ago.

In fact, it's entirely possible that when the dust settles on this year's campaign, Barkley will have earned a far different moniker than the one he claimed a year ago.

Rather than being arguably fantasy football's most valuable player, Barkley is going to be fantasy's biggest bust.

The Madden Curse

In news that should surprise no one, Barkley was selected by Electronic Arts to be the cover athlete for Madden NFL 26. The 28-year-old told the team's website that he's honored to have been selected for the team's cover.

"Starring on the cover of Madden NFL 26 and being named to the Madden NFL 99 Club are both dreams come true," said Barkley. "I'm grateful to my teammates, coaches, and Eagles fans for their support, and I can't wait to hit the field again to give Madden players more highlight-reel moments in Madden NFL 26."

Of course, appearing on the game's cover puts Barkley in the crosshairs of the "Madden Curse," an insidious supernatural force that is exactly as real as the idea that if you say "Candyman" into a mirror, a hook-handed monster will chop you into bits and pieces.

In other words, it's a load of crap.

As the Footballguy himself (the inestimable Joe Bryant) wrote, many more players have met or even exceeded fantasy expectations the season after a Madden appearance than those who came up short. Yes, there are a couple of running backs who flamed out in Cleveland's Payton Hillis (2011) and San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey (2024). But Hillis was a one-hit wonder who just wasn't an especially good player, and McCaffrey's injury history wasn't exactly a state secret entering last year.

There are plenty of things for Barkley drafters to legitimately worry about.

The Madden Curse ain't one of them.

Barkley's 2024 Workload is a Massive Red Flag

The Madden Curse may be bunk, but the Curse of 370 most assuredly is not.

As I wrote recently here at FBG, The Curse of 370 was discovered by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders over two decades ago. It states that if a running back has 370 or more carries in a season, they will spontaneously combust in Week 1 of the following year and collapse in a pile of ash.

Wait. That's not it. But the reality is only marginally less horrifying.

Since 1980, 30 running backs have surpassed 370 carries in a season. Of that bunch, one back (Eric Dickerson in 1984--when he set the aforementioned rushing record) gained more rushing yards the next year. Most missed time. Forty percent saw their production drop by over half. The average decrease in production topped 40 percent.

Depressed yet? Well, grab the Zoloft--because the Curse extends to 370 touches as well.

Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, a pair (Clinton Portis in 2008 and Ray Rice in 2011) gained more total yardage the following year. An equal number (Rice and Adrian Peterson in 2009) saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases--the kind of dip a drafter can live with.

The rest. POOF! Ashtray-time.

Don't believe me? Here's a look at the 370-touch running backs from the past decade.

Look at that table of terrible. Look at it!

Arizona's David Johnson made it one game into the 2027 campaign before suffering a season-ending injury. Le'Ven Bell sat out all of 2018 in a contract kerfuffle. Christian McCaffrey played in just three games in 2020--and he wasn't even on the "Madden" cover that year.

Tennessee's Derrick Henry was actually on an even more torrid pace in 2021 than the season before. But then he broke his foot, and POOF! Dust in the Wind.

Too much?

Only Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys experienced a drop in fantasy production under 20%. If you use Bell's 2019 numbers instead of just zeroing him out, the average decrease in fantasy production for 370-touch backs the past 10 years is over 49 percent.

Take away 49 percent of Barkley's 2024 numbers, and he goes from RB2 overall to RB28.

Did I Mention Barkley's Workload?

Of course, Barkley's season didn't end with his sitting out Week 18. The Eagles went on to win it all, and Barkley played a big part in that. Barkley amassed 104 more total touches in the playoffs. That left Barkley with a staggering 482 total touches for the season--tied for the 10th-most ever.

Wonder what happened to the other guys?

This table is like the eye of the hurricane destroying Barkley's fantasy value. It's bad--but frankly, it's not as horrible as this analyst expected.

Four of the 11 backs with the most single-season touches actually improved their yardage production the following year. But one (Denver's Terrell Davis) went screaming off a cliff the year after, and none increased by more than 12 percent. Another (Emmitt Smith of the Cowboys in 1993) experienced a minor slide in total yardage but saw his rushing touchdown total cut in half.

But again, the majority of players saw their regular-season (the only time fantasy managers care about) total yardage decline the season after a massive workload--including three by over half. The average drop-off is just over 39 percent.

Knock 39 percent off Barkley's 2024 yardage (rushing and receiving) and 2,283 becomes 1,393. That would have ranked 13th among running backs a year ago--just ahead of Chuba Hubbard of Carolina.

Two Thousand Rushing Yards is the Kiss of Death

But wait! There's more!

May want to grab a couple Prozac--it's about to get sad again.

As was already mentioned, last year Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards on the ground in a season. It's a remarkable achievement--and one that no one has come even remotely close to doing two years in a row.

That's right! More depressing tables!

Yeah, it ain't good.

Six of the eight running backs who have gained 2,000 rushing yards in a season went on to miss time the following year--in fact, the workload Davis saw in 1997 and 1998 effectively ended his Hall of Fame career. No back has ever followed up a 2,000-yard season with even a 1,500-yard one--just one 2K back (Barry Sanders in 1998) saw his rushing yards fall by less than 30 percent the following year. Three of eight fell off by at least 50 percent.

The average decline in rushing production from a running back following a 2,000-yard season is a whopping 966 yards--over 47 percent.

Lop 966 yards off Barkley's total last year, and 2,005 becomes 1,039. That number would have ranked Barkley 15th in the NFL in rushing--behind Najee Harris of Pittsburgh.

Barkley the Bust

Okay. Right now, Barkley truthers are no doubt hurling counters to the notion he's a bust waiting to happen like Kurt Ankiel throwing wild pitches. "He's a generational talent on a great team." "Even with a moderate decrease in production, he can still be awesome sauce!" "This time will be different!"

The first one can't be argued. But the tables of players in this column were almost universally generational talents; I hear that Dickerson guy could play. Many more than not played for great teams. They weren't spared (for the most part). Odds are, Barkley won't be either. He's a 28-year-old (the age when most backs start to decline) player coming off a huge workload, and the data suggests he's likely to miss games and almost certainly experience a sizable decrease in production. Numbers don't lie.

As to that decrease, at what point is too much too much?

A 20-percent drop would mean 281 PPR points--and an RB7 finish last year. That's wishful thinking--the best-case scenario. At 25 percent, it's 263.5 points--and the back end of the top 10. Jack it to 30 percent (which is well below the average decline of running backs who have checked all the boxes Barkley did last year), and it's 245.9 PPR points and bye-bye RB1 territory.

Mind you, this is for a player being taken first overall in some drafts--and as dispiriting as those numbers are, they are (based on what we've seen in the past) closer to Barkley's fantasy ceiling than his floor. That floor is--disaster.

There are just too many things working against Barkley in 2025. The Curse of 370. A historic workload when you factor in the postseason. Inclusion in "The 2K Club," which is awesome right up until you see what happens to those players the following year. Barkley is as elusive as they come. But even he can't dodge all of those tacklers. One's going to drag him down. The only question is "how low?"

Barkley shouldn't be picked first overall. Or in the front half of Round 1. Even then, at say 1.08, you are starting your draft with a lot of risk, even if the potential reward is tempting. If I'm picking in the back half of the round, my hope is that someone takes that decision out of my hands.

Finally, for the "This time will be different!" crowd. Just stop. Seriously. When presented with a mountain of evidence (The Barkley Mountains, if you will), saying that "This time will be different!" is the logic George Costanza or Peter Griffin would use before doing something, um, ill-advised.

Don't be Peter Griffin.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.