Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Miami | -10.5 | 47 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -9.5 | 47.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -10.5 | 46.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | -4 | 53 | 28.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 51.5 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Arizona | Seattle | -6.5 | 47 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Houston | Jacksonville | -6 | 46 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| St. Louis | San Francisco | -3.5 | 37.5 | 20.5 | ++ | ||
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | -9 | 41.5 | 25.25 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Kansas City | Oakland | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | ++ | + | ++ |
| Denver | San Diego | -9.5 | 41 | 25.25 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Indianapolis | Tennessee | -6 | 44 | 25 | + | + | + |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 4 | 53 | 24.5 | |||
| Green Bay | Minnesota | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | |||
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | 3.5 | 51.5 | 24 | |||
| Chicago | Detroit | -1 | 46 | 23.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
| Detroit | Chicago | 1 | 46 | 22.5 | |||
| San Francisco | St. Louis | 3.5 | 37.5 | 17 | |||
| Dallas | Washington | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | ++ | ||
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | |||
| Seattle | Arizona | 6.5 | 47 | 20.25 | |||
| Jacksonville | Houston | 6 | 46 | 20 | |||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
| Tennessee | Indianapolis | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 9.5 | 47.5 | 19 | + | ||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | + | ||
| Washington | Dallas | 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | |||
| Miami | New England | 10.5 | 47 | 18.25 | + | ||
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 10.5 | 46.5 | 18 | + | ||
| Baltimore | Cincinnati | 9 | 41.5 | 16.25 | + | ||
| San Diego | Denver | 9.5 | 41 | 15.75 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Brandon Bolden/Steven Jackson/James White (Patriots), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Cameron Artis-Payne (Panthers)
- Receivers: Brandon LaFell/Keshawn Martin/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Heath Miller (Steelers), Ted Ginn Jr/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Julio Jones/Roddy White/Jacob Tamme (Falcons)
- Defense: Broncos, Bengals
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Eli Manning (Giants), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Brian Hoyer (Texans)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Rashad Jennings (Giants), David Johnson (Cardinals), Alfred Blue (Texans), Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals), Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Odell Beckham Jr/Rueben Randle/Will Tye (Giants), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), DeAndre Hopkins/Nate Washington/Jaelen Strong (Texans)
- Defense: Patriots, Panthers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams
1-STAR
- Quarterback: A.J. McCarron (Bengals), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Brock Osweiler (Broncos), Stephen Morris (Colts), Austin Davis (Browns), Derek Carr (Raiders), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Jimmy Clausen (Ravens), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts)
- Receivers: A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Jeremy Maclin/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Owen Daniels (Broncos), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Coby Fleener (Colts), Travis Benjamin/Taylor Gabriel/Gary Barnidge (Browns), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Clive Walford (Raiders), Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker/Jordan Cameron, Kamar Aiken/Chris Givens/Maxx Williams (Ravens), Steve Johnson/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Steelers
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Tavon Austin
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Brandon Bolden
Tom Brady
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John Brown
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Devonta Freeman
A.J. Green
Rob Gronkowski
T.Y. Hilton
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Brian Hoyer
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Maxx Williams
Albert Wilson
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