Overvalued Players: Running Backs

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

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Player Receiving 7 Votes

Thomas Rawls, Seattle

Haseley: At this point in the offseason, I am not ready to roll the dice on Thomas Rawls being a running back I can rely on. His ADP of RB13, 38 overall is too rich for my interest level at this time. If he can prove that he is healed from his ankle injury, I will gladly take him at this point in the draft, if not sooner. He's a star in the making with a great offense to increase his scoring chances.

Kuczynski: Last year Marshawn Lynch was battling age and injuries, so the Seahawks had to turn to a revolving door of replacement running backs to try to fill the void in the offense. Rawls seemingly had the most success accumulating 800 yards, but half of those yards came from two huge games (one of which was over 200 yards against the 49ers). The team also might not be totally convinced he can be the bell cow, considering they drafted three running backs this off season, including promising rookie CJ Prosise in the 3rd, and still have Christine Michael as well. The most concerning thing however is his fractured ankle in December- it will be a while before we can see if he was just a flash in the pan, or if he will even be ready to start the season.

Parsons: RB13 is a rich ADP for a running back with a partial season of production, limited pass-catching history, and still a lingering injury recovery heading into camp. Seattle has declared C.J. Prosise will, at a minimum, have a receiving role. I fade two-down running backs with much of a price tag as they need high volume and goal line looks to return value. Thomas Rawls qualifies among the 2016 running back crop.

Pasquino: I do believe that Seattle wants to run the ball again this year, but the retirement of Marshawn Lynch does not mean that they will immediately go to a feature tailback plan this season. If you think Thomas Rawls will inherit Lynch's touches, think again. There are many indications that Rawls is not as healthy as you might think, and even if he is, Seattle drafted two running backs in the draft this May. Rawls could easily face competition for the offensive workload and a timeshare or committee could be on the horizon. Couple that with Russell Wilson's strong passing game in the second half of 2015 and I would steer clear of Rawls as a Top 15 back in your fantasy drafts this year.

Simpkins: The fact that Rawls is going in the early fourth round of 12-team leagues is absolutely mindblowing. As fans, we root for undrafted free agents, but draft pedigree is an important consideration. Those players do not typically get the opportunity afforded to highly drafted players and teams are quicker to move on from them when something negative occurs. Rawls was playing well in relief of Marshawn Lynch, but then suffered a nasty ankle injury. The fact that the team drafted three running backs and is keeping the nature and treatment of Rawls' injury quiet should terrify owners. Assuming Rawls is healthy, a committee approach in Seattle from here on out is still very likely.

Wimer: I am waiting for clarity on Rawls' recovery from a gruesome ankle/leg injury that occurred near the end of last season. It appears he may have had a least one ankle surgery during the offseason, and the team is being reticent about discussing Rawls' progress. I am leary of investing a premium pick on a guy with this many question marks.

Wood: Rawls was a revelation last year after taking over for Marshawn Lynch. In six games as the full-time starter, Rawls averaged 21 carries for 119 yards (5.7 yards per rush). Pro-rated over a 16-game season, Rawls would've had 336 carries for 1,898 yards and 11 touchdowns. So why do I consider him overrated? It all comes down to the ankle. Rawls broke his ankle late in the season, and his recovery has been shrouded in mystery and misinformation. Coach Carroll continues to say he "hopes" Rawls will be ready for Week One. Our own Jene Bramel and Craig Zumsted believe Rawls may have had surgery this offseason – in spite of denials to the contrary. Rawls' limited track record – albeit impressive – combined with his injury questions makes him too risky to draft at his present ADP.

Players Receiving 5 Votes

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta

Alexander: Freeman rushed for more than 3.4 yards per attempt only once in his last seven games -- production more consistent with the runner he looked like as a rookie. 55% of his league-leading 247.9 fantasy points came in a five-game span from Weeks 3-7. Only one of Atlanta's opponents over that stretch (Houston) ranked better than a bottom-third rush defense per Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. Last year's third-round pick, Tevin Coleman, should be healthy and a bigger part of the Falcons game plan going forward, making it doubtful Freeman's counting stats will once again be bolstered by near-league-leading volume. A low-end RB1 finish remains a reasonable expectation for Freeman this season, but it doesn't look like you'll get him for that price.

Hester: Freeman was one of the NFL's biggest surprises in 2015, but it's the reason he was such a surprise that should have owners skeptical in 2016. Early last season, then-rookie Tevin Coleman was actually the primary ball-carrier for Atlanta. He had 20 carries for 80 yards in Week 1 and had nine carries for 32 yards and a score in Week 2 before suffering an injury. Coleman had the backfield to himself one more time last year, when Freeman missed Week 12 due to injury. Coleman ran for 110 yards on 18 carries. Coleman's presence allows Atlanta to spare Freeman's small frame. Freeman did seem to wear down after his torrid start, with a high rushing output of just 81 yards after Week 8. He only eclipsed 100 total yards three times in that stretch (with two of those just barely going over at 102 and 104). Freeman is the better pass-catcher, so this won't be a totally split backfield, but Freeman's workload won't be repeated in 2016. And he's being drafted in a place that suggests it will.

Ingel: Freeman did most of his damage (and serious damage it was) over only four games last year and I wouldn't be surprised if Coleman got the ball more than people are expecting. As ESPN's Matthew Berry recently pointed out, from Weeks 9 through 17 last season, Tim Hightower and Ameer Abdullah were among the 27 NFL running backs who had more rushing yards than Freeman who averaged a pathetic 3.1 yards per carry over that time frame. Berry went on to add that 46 different players had at least one run of 40-plus yards last season, while Freeman have zero. This running game could very well devolve into a Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard type situation, with Freeman in the Bernard role and Tevin Coleman playing the role of Hill. In fact, both the team's head coach and general manager have stated as such; mentioning that the two backs form a great tandem.

Pasquino: First off, I do like how Freeman performed last year, but it was in the ideal circumstances for him to be a top producer at tailback last year in Atlanta. First, Tevin Coleman was hurt, so there was not the threat of splitting time with him in the Falcon backfield. Second, the passing game struggled with just Julio Jones as a true threat, leaving Freeman as the second-most targeted player on offense behind Jones. That's pretty rare for a running back, and Atlanta has addressed both issues this offseason by adding Mohamed Sanu at wide receiver and getting Coleman back to health. I still expect good things from Freeman, but a lower-end RB1 value is more likely. That tells me that Freeman's present ADP of RB6 is too high.

Simpkins: Freeman's start to last year was fantastic, but it was his finish that should be a cautionary tale. Remember, he is a high-effort runner, but he's not enough of an athlete to create for himself when there is little space to run. As defenses wised up and began to stack the box against him, he cooled rapidly. While Matt Ryan and the passing game should get back on track to keep defenses honest, Freeman has legitimate competition. Healthy after being dinged up last year, the more athletic Telvin Coleman threatens to eat into Freeman's workload. Head Coach Dan Quinn has expressed the desire to get Coleman more involved. A later first- or early second-round pick is just too much to devote to a back who isn't going to be a true featured option.

DeMarco Murray, Tennessee

Bloom: With an "exotic smashmouth" offense and a second-round rookie nipping at his heels for carries, Murray is not a player in an ideal situation. His game seemed to decline sharply last year. Perhaps overuse is to blame, but the Titans only gave up pocket lint to get him, and they used a premium pick to get a back with some of his strengths and none of his pro workload. They have already declared an inclination to the hot hand approach in Tennessee. The Murray I saw last year would rarely be the hot hand, and if he's standing still next to Marcus Mariota when he gets an handoff, we also saw that there isn't enough juice in his legs to do well in a read option running game. I wouldn't spend a tenth round pick on Murray.

Fahey: When the Titans traded for DeMarco Murray, it looked like the perfect situation for him. Murray was in the scheme he needed to be in, he was playing with a mobile quarterback to draw attention away from him and he was playing for a head coach who desperately wants to run the ball. Since then, Mularkey has assured Dexter McCluster of the third-down role and drafted Derrick Henry. Henry will eat into Murray's touchdowns, Mariota too, while McCluster will make him essentially irrelevant as a receiver. The older Murray will become less appealing than the younger Henry as the season wears on also.

Haseley: DeMarco Murray hit the wall last year whether it was the Philadelphia offense or the hangover from his 393 carry 2014 season, the fact is he was not a reliable fantasy back. Now that he has been traded to Tennessee are we to assume he'll return to his days of stardom? I'm not buying it. Not only do I think Murray was a product of the Cowboys system, he also will face a timeshare with an equally bruisng back in Derrick Henry. I smell a committee approach in Tennessee, which spells out caution in my draft interest.

Holloway: Murray disappointed a year ago in Philadelphia, averaging a career low 3.6 YPC and disappearing in some games altogether. In his last seven games, he averaged less than 10 carries per game. He moves on to Tennessee and is joined there by rookie Derrick Henry, a second round pick by the Titans. Running back by committee again for Murray.

Kuczynski: Murray signed a huge free agent contract with the Eagles last year and failed to meet expectations after his great 2014 season. He was much less effective than his counterpart Ryan Mathews and only accumulated the stats he did because of being forced the ball to justify his massive contract. Now in Tennessee, it will be interesting to see where he fits in with the running back group. In 5 seasons he's hovered around 200 carries, aside from the outlier 2014 season, and this year might not be any higher with 2nd round pick Derrick Henry eating into carries and Dexter McCluster used on passing downs.

Latavius Murray, Oakland

Alexander: Murray finished 2015 as the cumulative RB10, but he lacked both consistency (minimum 12 fantasy points in just five out of 16 games) and upside (minimum 16 fantasy points in only two games). Most of Murray's value was derived from his 72% market share of the Raiders' total backfield touches (fourth-highest in the league). Fifth-round rookie DeAndre Washington seems tailor made for a third-down role (and possibly more), which poses an obvious threat to Murray's workload. Even if Murray has the edge on the smaller Washington for goal line work, it won't help much. 82% of the Raiders touchdowns last season came via the pass.

Bloom: The Raiders gave off signs of not being enamored with Murray as their lead back this offseason, looking into Doug Martin in free agency and drafting DeAndre Washington in the fifth round. Why would they be satisfied with a player who was about as unremarkable getting over 300 touches in a good offense as any back in recent memory. Murray averaged about four yards a carry and under six yards a reception in a growing offense. It's not hard to imagine Murray giving way to an RBBC if Washington is up to the task. While the offensive line is one of the best in the league and Derek Carr is piloting an offense on the verge of a breakout, Murray didn't look up to the task of elevating his game along with his teammates.

Hester: Murray has shown little pass-catching prowess, which likely led to the team drafting DeAndre Washington in the fifth round this season and very probably led them to already penciling Washington into a passing-game-and-possibly-more role as a rookie. Before Washington has even worn shoulder pads at the NFL level, he has already been given a clearly-defined role and got work with the first team in minicamp. Coaches are gushing about him and not about Murray. Players going after Murray who have more intriguing prospects are Matt Jones, Jay Ajayi, and – in PPR leagues especially – Danny Woodhead and Duke Johnson Jr.

Simpkins: When Murray was going in the late rounds of drafts in previous years, taking him was a wise move. However, his limitations as a runner lead one to believe that a late fourth-round pick is too costly of an investment. The team drafted DeAndre Washington in round five. He could legitimately challenge Murray for the primary job as early as this year. At the very least, Washington will cut into Murray's volume, something on which Murray is dependent to maintain his value. The fact that Washington is already getting first team reps is an indicator of just how much the Raiders like him.

Waldman: The Raiders back has 10 quality starter games in his past 21 outings and I don't trust him to hang onto his job. He only gained 3.5 yards per carry on first down last year, which compared to starters like Adrian Peterson (4.4), Ameer Abdullah (4.3), Devonta Freeman (4.0), and even an aging Frank Gore (4.1) behind a lackluster line. Look for rookie DeAndre Washington, who is already seeing first-team reps in June, to earn a committee role with Murray in September. Washington, a shorter back with a low center of gravity, a decisive style, and strong skills as a receiver, has the consistency to push Murray for even more time as the season progresses. I'm far more likely to take Washington than Murray at their current values.

Player Receiving 4 Votes

Jeremy Langford, Chicago

Bloom: Langford was getting a lot of touches by the end of the season in 2015, but he was only useful when Matt Forte was out, and this year the Bears have added Jordan Howard, who is a more ideal power back for a John Fox approach (as Matt Waldman would point out, remember Stephen Davis?). Ka'Deem Carey could also figure in a backfield that could employ a "hot hand approach". Langford has a chance to return his ADP value with touches by default, but that argument is low on the list of compelling reasons to take a running back in the fifth round.

Holloway: Jeremy Langford had moderate success in his rookie season. Yet, he only had 15 carries over the first six games before Forte was injured. In Forte's absence, Langford had 63 carries in 3-and-a-half games, but only averaged 3.4 YPC. He had two good receiving games with 10 catches for 179 yards, but only caught 12 more passes all season for another 100 yards. He will likely need a steady volume of touches to be a consistent producer. The coaching staff has already expressed the likelihood of a committee backfield and the team drafted Jordan Howard in the 5th round.

Waldman: Here's another back that had difficulty running between the tackles as a rookie. His 3.4 yards per carry on first downs is symptomatic of his immaturity with blocking schemes because he's not getting the job done against base defenses. When a back isn't in good position according to the dictates of a scheme, it's also more difficult for him to make defenders miss or break tackles. Langford may have excellent straight-line speed but without a strong feel for the ground game he'll never maximize that physical talent as a runner. He only had two runs over 15 yards last year. Langford will have to perform much better if he wants to fend off the more efficient Ka'Deem Carey or rookie power back Jordan Howard. At this point. Langford has too much to prove to count on him as a RB2.

Wood: Langford struggled at times in his role as Matt Forte's backup/injury replacement. He averaged just 3.6 yards per rush and failed to break 100 yards in any game. The film shows a stiff runner lacking vision. On the positive front, he scored 6 rushing touchdowns and was a productive receiver (22 receptions for 279 yards and a touchdown). So the jury is out on whether Langford can improve enough to be a reliable, every week fantasy starter. I'm skeptical he'll live up to his ADP for a number of reasons. One, I didn't see a lot of special ability on last year's tape. Two, I believe rookie Jordan Howard is a better player and should push for a starting role quickly. Three, the Bears replaced Adam Gase with Dowell Loggains as play caller. Too much risk versus some of the other players going at the same spot in drafts.

Players Receiving 3 Votes

Matt Jones, Washington

Hester: Jones had a bizarre rookie season last year, at times showing big play ability and flash but more often losing yards and not looking like a high-quality ball carrier. He also has no pass-catching pedigree as the team used Chris Thompson and even dusted off Pierre Thomas last season to fill that role. Thompson remains in the fold, and for an offense that should be more pass-centric than run-based, Jones' outlook is murky. All of the backs going in this range are dice-rolls, but in PPR leagues, I'd rather take someone who might get 100 fewer carries but still outscore Jones – someone like Danny Woodhead or Duke Johnson Jr. Jonathan Stewart profiles similarly to Jones in terms of a player who will get the bulk of the carries but isn't necessarily dynamic, and Stewart is going nearly two full rounds later.

Holloway: Jones was drafted by Washington in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft. He played second fiddle a year ago to Alfred Morris, who signed with division rival Dallas in free agency. Many anticipate a potential three-down role for Jones, but his play last year does not inspire additional work this season. Jones averaged only 3.4 YPC and was not often used as a receiver.

Wood: Fantasy success comes down to ability and opportunity. It's clear Jones has the opportunity, but does he have the ability? With Alfred Morris moving on, and Washington only adding 7th round rookie Keith Marshall to the depth chart, fantasy owners are salivating at Jones' potential. Yet, I find it very hard to get excited about what I saw from the player based on last year's film. Jones "emerged" last year in Week Two against the Rams – 19 carries for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's where the good news ends. In 12 other games, Jones ran 125 times for 367 yards (2.9 per carry) and one touchdown. He also finished 2nd among running backs with 4 lost fumbles. I realize players can improve – sometimes dramatically – from Year One to Year Two, but Jones was ABYSMAL for the vast majority of his rookie season. No thanks.

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay

Feery: To say that the 2015 season was underwhelming for Eddie Lacy may be an understatement. He looked out of shape and out of sorts at various times during the season, and the Packers offense actually seemed to hum along better while James Starks was handling the running back duties. That information is being swept under the carpet in current drafts, and Lacy is going off the board as a Top 10 RB. An offseason that was dedicated to improving his conditioning is an outstanding sign, but I'll take a wait and see approach to see if that translates to on-field production.

Kuczynski: Lacy played in nearly every game last year but still managed his worst season with under 800 rushing yards, 20 catches and 5 total touchdowns, which greatly disappointed anyone who used a top 5 pick on him. It got to the point where Green Bay turned to backup James Starks to give a spark to the run game, and he was much more effective- there were many games where the split in carries favored Starks and Lacy had under 10 carries. One big concern has always been his conditioning and motivation. While reports are coming out that he has slimmed down and is taking it more seriously, there has to be question marks about if he can keep it up and be trusted to carry the load. It seems like his days of a reliable every week RB1 have slipped away unless he can prove otherwise.

Pasquino: Please tell me why you would draft Eddie Lacy as a Top 10 running back this year, because I just do not get it. He had his worst season as a pro in 2015, failing to get 1,000 yards on the ground by quite a bit (only 758 yards rushing on 187 carries) and either split time with James Starks or fell behind him on the depth chart at several points last season. It could be that Lacy was out of shape or that Starks was just better at times or that the coaching staff liked the committee approach, or some of all three of those reasons. It doesn't matter for me – Lacy and Starks screams running back by committee to me, so I am not drafting Lacy as a feature back this year.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh

Hicks: Le'Veon Bell is a premier back. We have only seen him for a full season once though in 3 years to date. When he is on the field he will produce elite stats and be worthy of consideration as one of the first backs of the board. Another thing to consider: Will the performance of DeAngelo Williams last year take carries away from Bell? Probably not a lot, but Williams had 1,200 combined yards and 11 touchdowns last year so cannot be dismissed out of hand. Bell also may not be ready for training camp after his torn MCL. Like most other top backs this year there are serious concerns that should make you think carefully before spending a first rounder on such a player.

Wimer: Bell has been productive - when on the field - but he's hardly a model of durability. With a proven-effective DeAngelo Williams on board in Pittsburgh, I expect a small but consequential number of touches flowing to Williams each game, knocking Bell off the presumptive #1-fantasy-running-back perch for 2016. The Steelers will spice their running back mix with enough Williams to keep Bell from eye-popping numbers during 2016. Pittsburgh will want Bell healthy for post-season, and Williams provides a solid #2 option at running back for late-game blowout duty (and etc). Other fantasy prospects have a clearer path to elite production.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

Fahey: Jamaal Charles is being drafted like a fully healthy, every-down back. After a second ACL tear in an offense that continued to produce without him last season, that is illogical. Charles can come back and still be a good player but he's likely to be tentative cutting and have stamina issues if relied upon too much. If Alex Smith carries over the increased aggressiveness throwing downfield that was seemingly created by Charles' injury, then his value in the passing game will take a hit also. There are too many concerns with Charles for him to be a top-20 player.

Haseley: Jamaal Charles suffered an ACL tear (his second of his career) in Week 5 last season. He should be back to full health by Week 1, but I am leery on Charles as a reliable fantasy back for multiple reasons. A second ACL tear is more worrisome and there's the uncertainty of if and when he will be fully healthy. If he's not fully healthy, he won't go through the rigors of training camp that will prepare him for the season. Charles is approaching 30 years old and his body is taking a toll. At his current ADP of RB8, 20 overall, I'd rather target someone with youth and health on his side.

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas

Hicks: Everything points to Ezekiel Elliot being the most successful rookie running back expected to do well, almost ever. That leaves no room at all for downside, which tends to happen to all rookies, especially running backs. He has a good reputation as a pass blocker, excels as a receiver and is a natural runner. All positives. Rookie running backs however rarely have an ADP in the first round, let alone the top 6. The only rookie running backs drafted in the first 2 rounds of fantasy drafts in the last 10 years were Reggie Bush in 2006 and Ryan Mathews in 2010. Both failed to get anywhere near their ADP. I'll probably let others take the chance on Elliot.

Howe: It's fair to expect big things from Ezekiel Elliott's NFL career, yet still not want to pay top-5 RB prices for his rookie year. He's being drafted alongside Devonta Freeman and ahead of Lamar Miller, but that's an awfully risky proposition. Rookies come equipped with question marks, and many bust, even from the top of the draft. Will the rookie truly dominate snaps from Day One over two productive veterans? Is Dallas good enough to bring him the touchdown opportunity? All of this may pan out, but I can't pass on better bets to hope Elliott bucks history to that extent.

David Johnson, Arizona

Fahey: The hope for David Johnson is that he can sustain his big plays while feasting on a huge number of touches in the Arizona Cardinals offense. Johnson is an inconsistent player, someone who isn't on the same level as a Todd Gurley or Le'Veon Bell, so he is going to be reliant on those big plays to be effective. With a stacked group of receivers and Chris Johnson still lingering behind David on the depth chart, not to mention Andre Ellington, Johnson isn't going to get as long of a leash as his peers.

Waldman: I've been a big fan of Johnson's potential. I even stated in last year's RSP pre-draft publication that if drafted by a gap-oriented scheme like the Cardinals or Colts, Johnson had the promise to develop into a fantasy star. Johnson excelled as a fantasy producer down the stretch after Chris Johnson got hurt. Now fantasy owners are equating Johnson's skills to Todd Gurley's tier and I think this could be a premature reaction to a player who admits he's still learning to develop more patience between the tackles. Moreover, the team had more trust in Chris Johnson's patience as an every-down runner. David Johnson has elite physical ability but there's a lot more to becoming a top fantasy back than speed, strength, and quickness. I'm optimistic David Johnson can become a low-end RB1 this year if he's the lead runner but I think top-5 expectations are a stretch for a pass-first team and the talent of the committee that the team projects at the position.

Lamar Miller, Houston

Hicks: Miami let Lamar Miller walk in the off season. This is the same Dolphins offense that will be choosing between Jay Ajayi, rookie Kenyan Drake or another uninspiring back on their roster. That immediately puts up a red flag on the prospects of Miller in Houston this year. Previous to last year Miller couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas. On paper Miller was underused in Miami and walks into a great situation where his potential will finally be unleashed on to the NFL. Either the Dolphins don't know what they are doing or they know something we don't. For the moment I trust the latter.

Wimer: Miller was not utilized as well as he should have been in Miami, as he has featured-running-back level skills. Houston runs the ball A LOT and he'll be able to fulfill his full, fantasy running back number one potential as a Texan. I see him as challenging for top-ten status this year, and then moving on to top-five contention in year two (2017) as a Texan. I think fantasy owners are over-optimistic about his status as an instant superstar in Houston - he's overvalued for 2016 as of July 1.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

C.J. Anderson, Denver

Howe: Anderson was indeed re-signed by the Broncos, but that certainly doesn't guarantee him a full workload. Over the last few years, we've seen similar contracts go to the likes of C.J. Spiller (New Orleans), Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville), and Donald Brown (San Diego) – none of whom were featured much in their offenses. And Anderson returns to a crowded backfield, with versatile rookie Devontae Booker on board and Ronnie Hillman bafflingly brought back as well. Anderson looks poised for another rotational year in Denver, a shaky prognosis at his RB16 cost.

Arian Foster

Ingel: Arian Foster turns 30 this year and has never been able to stay healthy. He is now coming off an Achilles injury that usually zaps a player's burst, and it's not like Foster had that much to begin with. I'm not buying that he makes any sort of fantasy impact this season, despite scaring a lot of fantasy players once he eventually signs with some team as depth.

Mark Ingram, New Orleans

Hicks: Last year Mark Ingram finally looked like the back the Saints drafted in the first round of 2011 until a shoulder injury cut short his 2015 season. He unexpectedly went from 24 receptions in his first 3 years to 50 in 12 games last season, ran the ball well and was on target for a 1000 rushing season. The problem with Ingram though is that he always misses games. He has played 10 to 13 games in 4 of his 5 seasons and other backs the Saints throw in always seem to do as well or better. Chris Ivory, Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Tim Hightower have all filled in for Ingram and the Saints offense hasn't missed a beat. Others will see the upside that Ingram has, but I've seen enough to be wary.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay

Parsons: At RB11 ADP, Martin equals his PPR point-per-game finish a year ago. Last season was the perfect storm for Martin as he stayed healthy for the second-most carries in the NFL (288) and played all 16 games. However, Charles Sims dominated the passing game from Tampa Bay's backfield, Martin logged just six touchdowns on the ground, and is exiting a running back's historical peak age window of production. The perfect storm from 2015 needs to happen again for Martin to justify his ADP.