Cracking FanDuel: Week 7 - Footballguys

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 7 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• Offensive scoring is way up this season and week seven has nine teams that are expected to score 24+ points on the 20-team main slate. Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Listed by descending expected team points:
  
  
  • Los Angeles Rams - 30.75 points (at SF)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 27.50 points (vs CLE)
  • New England Patriots - 26.00 points (at CHI)
  • Baltimore Ravens - 26.00 points (vs NO)
  • Indianapolis Colts - 25.25 points (vs BUF)
  • Detroit Lions - 24.75 points (at MIA)
  • Minnesota Vikings - 24.75 points (at NYJ)
  • Philadelphia Eagles - 24.50 points (vs CAR)
  • Cleveland Browns - 24.00 points (at TB)

• The Jets Secondary - This unit was already horrible against slot receivers and will be without Buster Skrine and Trumaine Johnson this week. QB Kirk Cousins ($8,000) and WR Adam Thielen ($8,700) look to benefit here. The mismatch is so big, I can envision a scenario where the Jets get behind a lot early making both WR Robby Anderson ($5,400) and Jermaine Kearse ($5,000) garbage-time compilers.
  
  
• The Rams Offense - The Rams have sizeable advantages in both the run and pass scripts against the 49ers. Vegas has the Rams scoring 30.75 points and my Game Predictor liked them even better at 31.3 points. Todd Gurley's price ($10,200) is the largest on the slate, but he isn't a fade this week with a dream matchup. He returns value at 120 combined yards and a TD with 4 catches and that feels like a floor projection for him if he plays the whole contest. If the Rams get up big, QB C.J. Beathard ($6,400) and WR Marquise Goodwin ($5,500) could deliver exceptional value for the 49ers at their discounted prices.
  
  
• Tampa Bay's Defense - Have I mentioned that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are DREADFUL against the pass lately? After 6 weeks, they are yielding 367 passing yards and 3.2 passing touchdowns a game to opposing offenses. They are particularly vulnerable to slot wide receivers and tight ends making WR Jarvis Landry ($6,500) and TE David Njoku ($5,700) attractive plays this week.
  
  
• Weather in Philadephia - Weather reports are usually overblown, but this one is starting to look like it could be nasty. Adam Joseph, a Philadelphia Meteorologist, is predicting wind chills to the low 40s and wind gusts approaching 40mph. I am fading the Panthers and Eagles for now and would advise everyone to look into this situation before kickoff.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest cost)

• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Adam Thielen ($16,700)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Robert Woods ($16,000)
• QB Kirk Cousins / WR Stefon Diggs ($15,600)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz ($15,100)
• QB Baker Mayfield / WR Jarvis Landry ($13,600)
• QB Jared Goff / WR Brandin Cooks ($15,800)
• QB Matthew Stafford / WR Kenny Golladay ($14,500)
• QB C.J. Beathard / WR Marquise Goodwin ($11,900)
• QB Baker Mayfield / WR David Njoku ($12,800)
• QB C.J. Beathard / TE George Kittle ($12,800)
• RB Todd Gurley / Def LA Rams ($15,200)
• RB T.J. Yeldon / Def Jacksonville ($11,200)

players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: C.J. Beathard, Joe Flacco, Brock Osweiler, Dak Prescott
• RBs: Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb, Bilal Powell, Duke Johnson Jr
• WRs: Keelan Cole, Jermain Kearse, Keke Coutee, Marvin Jones, Tre'Quan Smith
• TEs: Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate
• Def: Detroit, Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ (SF Stack - Projected Points = 131.9

• QB C.J Beathard, SF - $6,400
• RB Todd Gurley, LAR - $10,200
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL - $8,400
• TE Eric Ebron, DET - $6,800
• WR Marquis Goodwin, SF - $5,500
• WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $6,500
• WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ - $5,000
• Flex RB T.J Yeldon, JAC - $6,800
• TD Jacksonville Jaguars - $4,400

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ (SF Stack - Projected Points = 131.6

• QB C.J Beathard, SF - $6,400
• RB Todd Gurley, LAR - $10,200
• RB Kerryon Johnson, DET - $6,500
• TE Eric Ebron, DET - $6,800
• WR Marquis Goodwin, SF - $5,500
• WR Adam Thielen, MIN - $8,700
• WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ - $5,000
• Flex RB T.J Yeldon, JAC - $6,800
• TD Indianapolis Colts - $4,100

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash+ (MIN stack - Projected Points = 130.4

• QB Kirk Cousins, MIN - $8,000
• RB Todd Gurley, LAR - $10,200
• RB Nick Chubb, CLE - $4,800
• TE David Njoku, CLE - $5,700
• WR Marquis Goodwin, SF - $5,500
• WR Adam Thielen, MIN - $8,700
• WR Jarvis Landry, CLE - $6,500
• Flex RB T.J Yeldon, JAC - $6,800
• TD Washington - $3,500