Photo: Kelley L Cox, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

2019 FORMAT:

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

• The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
• The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
• The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
  • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
  • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
  • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
  • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
• If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:

CASH: It's tough to get to Lamar Jackson's $8.0K salary this week for cash games, so you will probably have to consider Russell Wilson at a $1K discount from Jackson or Philip Rivers at home against Oakland. Wilson should have no issues carving up an Arizona defense that has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any team in the league. Wilson has been quiet for the past month, largely due to blowout wins or tough matchups against strong secondaries (Rams, 49ers, Panthers), but the Cards' secondary is terrible and their offense is coming off a 38-point performance against the Browns just a week ago. Saving another $1K+ with Rivers is also an option against the Raiders, who allowed the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Having thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of his previous 4 contests, Rivers is a good candidate for both cash games and GPP formats, particularly given the Raiders' recent run of poor performances (allowing 34 points per game over the previous month).

GPP: You will quickly notice that the Falcons are all rated highly in this week's edition of Tips and Picks. There are multiple factors that created that reality, but the biggest is that the Falcons are simply too cheap given their implied team total and overall matchup against a dumpster fire in Jacksonville. This means that Matt Ryan, who thrown for 300+ yards in every home game that he has completed this season, is atop the list of GPP candidates for the quarterback position. In Philadelphia, both quarterbacks are firmly in play as GPP contenders. My buddy, Phil Alexander, made a great case for Dak Prescott on the PowerGrid that cannot be denied; as for Carson Wentz, he is going overlooked because of injuries to his key receivers, but his secondary receivers (including both tight ends) are inexpensive and reliable enough to substantiate Wentz as a GPP flyer at less than 5% ownership while trying to keep pace with one of the league's best offenses.

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:

CASH: DeAndre Washington will be the chalkiest player on the main slate this week because Josh Jacobs will not play due to a shoulder injury. In the last game that Jacobs missed, Washington absorbed the RB1 role ahead of Jalen Richard and finished with 14 carries, 6 receptions, 96 all-purpose yards, and a score against the Titans. This Sunday, he should enjoy a similar workload against the Chargers' 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense; at only $4.0K, he should easily exceed 3x value for cash formats and it would not be surprising to see him finish with nearly 20 DK points making him a bona fide GPP candidate despite his lofty ownership projections. After Washington, however, it is a dicey situation choosing a cash game running back. Off back-to-back 25+ touch performances against tougher defenses with a negative gamescript, Joe Mixon should be popular against a Dolphins front seven that woke Saquon Barkley from the dead last week. At a slightly higher price point, Alvin Kamara is still intriguing as a cash game candidate because of his continued heavy role on the Saints offense; he is averaging 18 touches per game over the past month and is easily the #2 receiver on the team. Some will question why Christian McCaffrey does not appear in this space this week? The answer is that paying $10K for a running back on a team where the quarterback was described by his head coach as "not there yet..." does not confer confidence in that player to be able to move the offense up-and-down the field. Until we see what Grier brings to the table, it's preferable to let somebody else pay the premium for CMC.

GPP: More of a 'gut play' than a numbers play, Marlon Mack is in a prime spot to deliver GPP value against the Panthers, whose reverse funnel defense (9th DVOA versus pass; last DVOA versus run) is allowing over 30 fantasy points per game (worst in the league) to his position. Things have gotten worse since Dontari Poe (quad) has missed time with a quad injury; in those three games, opposing running backs are averaging a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. Only five teams in the NFL run at a higher clip than the Colts and they are touchdown favorites over Carolina, which bodes well for Mack's prospects given that his usage is increased in winning gamescripts. In Atlanta, Devonta Freeman stands out as a top-end GPP option against the hapless Jaguars' defensive front, one that has allowed 5 different 100-yard rushers over the previous 6 weeks. Like the aforementioned Colts, the Falcons are touchdown home favorites, which could increase Freeman's involvement in the second half if the Falcons are protecting a lead. Lastly, Nick Chubb is an intriguing, albeit risky, GPP option at home against a Ravens defense that he toasted for nearly 200 all-purpose yards and 3 scores earlier this season; he will be on less than 3% of rosters and represents a deep GPP flyer for large-field tournaments.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:

CASH: If you avoid Christian McCaffrey in your cash games, you might be able to fit in Julio Jones and Keenan Allen as the centerpiece of your lineups. Allen has been a model of consistency for much of the season, having accumulated double-digit targets in over half of his games and averaging just a shade below 3x this week's modest $6.3K salary over the course of the entire season. The argument for Allen is bolstered when one considers that he will line up across from LaMarcus Joyner, who ranks as one of ProFootballFocus' worst-performing coverage cornerbacks this season; Joyner gives up six inches to Allen inside the redzone, where he has been targetd 17 different times this season. As for Julio Jones, it is difficult to come up with a reason to avoid him coming off a 20-target game, his first without Calvin Ridley. In that contest, Jones posted a monster stat line (13/134/2 for 41.4 DK points) against a far superior defense than he faces on Sunday at home. While 20 targets will not be the norm, we should expect 10-12 targets from Matt Ryan against the Jags, which should be enough to legitimize Julio Jones in all DFS formats again this week. At the lower end of the salary scale, both Alex Erickson and Greg Ward offer salary relief that can be combined with Julio and Keenan. Erickson will be playing the WR2 role behind Tyler Boyd in Miami while Ward will look to stay productive in the absence of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. Erickson was red-hot in the middle of the season before succumbing to a back injury, but he is now 100% healthy and is cheaply priced based on his poor output while injured. Ward has back-to-back games with nine targets and should see similar action against the Cowboys on Sunday due to a lack of wide receiving depth in Philadelphia.

GPP: Despite coming off a 100-yard performance against the Buccaneers just a week ago, Danny Amendola looks to be on only 4% of rosters against the Broncos on Sunday. Since becoming the starting quarterback in Week #13, David Blough has gravitated towards Amendola because of his shorter routes and good hands; in those 3 games, Amendola was the recipient of 29 targets and has averaged over 12 DK points per game, almost 3x this week's salary. If he manages to find the endzone, Amendola could be a tournament differentiator in a game where the Lions are projected to trail throughout. In the Emerald City, both Cardinals receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, are primed for positive touchdown regression after Kenyan Drake scored four touchdowns against the Browns last week--Kirk has not scored in a month and Fitzgerald has only found the endzone once since Week #3. For large-field tournaments, Albert Wilson stood out in my metrics as a possible low-owned player with upside against the Bengals. Wilson has five or more catches in three of his previous four games, games where DeVante Parker has scored on four different occasions; look to Wilson as yet another (cheap) touchdown regression candidate in a plush matchup at home against the Bengals on Sunday.

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT END TIDBITS:

CASH: As discussed on this week's edition of the PowerGrid, the tight end position is a wasteland in Week #16. With George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Higbee on different slates, we are left with a list of questionable choices to fill that slot in our rosters. For cash games, both Austin Hooper and Jacob Hollister are reasonable options due to their implied usage and reasonable salaries. Hooper will play his third game after missing three weeks with an injury in November; in his first game back, the Falcons limited him, but he was a full-go last week and we should expect the same moving forward. Against a Jaguars defense that has yielded back-to-back big games to tight ends, Hooper should be considered at his modest $4.4K price point. Alternatively, Jacob Hollister gets the cake matchup of the week against the Cardinals, whose inability to stop opposing tight ends is bordering on legend at this point in the season. Just last week, David Njoku was a healthy scratch, so the Browns rolled out Ricky Seals-Jones against Arizona and he managed to score a pair of touchdowns despite playing only 27% of the team's snaps. Hollister is a more integral piece of his offense and looks to be in a fine spot to deliver value on his $4.2K salary Sunday afternoon.

GPP: On the heels of back-to-back-to back two-catch games, the love for Hunter Henry will be limited this weekend. That said, do not let his recent performances sway you away from considering him for tournament formats because Henry is one of the few tight ends on this slate that brings two-touchdown upside to your rosters. His matchup against the Raiders is solid, as Oakland allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to his position. In southern Florida, Mike Gesicki is another tight end option who merits consideration due to increased usage in his offense; over the past five weeks, only five NFL tight ends have been targeted more than Gesicki, who certainly has benefited from Preston Williams' season-ending injury in Week #9. Closing the position out, be sure to get a piece of the Eagles' tight end corps, both of whom are solid tournament plays against the Cowboys as a result of injuries to the Birds' top wide receivers.

TEAM DEFENSES

TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:

CASH: The safest way to address the team defense position in cash games is to go against the inexperience of either David Blough or Will Grier. The Broncos will take on Blough at their home stadium and should benefit from his tendency to hang onto the ball while waiting on routes to develop. Over Blough's three starts, he has thrown only three touchdowns versus five interceptions and has been sacked nine times, all of which argues that the Broncos' defense should be firmly in play in all DFS formats. Coming off a 34-7 drubbing at the hands of the Saints in their last game, the Colts are surprising candidates for cash games because they face Will Grier, who struggled in the preseason against worse defenders. Given the struggles that Kyle Allen displayed for a prolonged period of time, we have to wonder just how bad (or underdeveloped) Grier is at this point? This recommendation is more of a bet against Grier than touting the Colts defense, but one drives the other.

GPP: Despite my love for the Falcons offense this week, the Jaguars jump off the page as an excellent GPP option at only $2.2K. The Jags do not boast a imposing defense, but the price point is right and one only needs to roster about 3x the field to gain leverage on the masses with Jacksonville (Note: Do not roster the Jags defense on the same team that contains a Falcons stack). In our nation's capitol, both defenses are in play due to questionable quarterback play by Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins. Before missing a few games due to injury, Jones was struggling with turnovers and getting sacked at a high rate, while Haskins continues to look overwhelmed as an NFL quarterback. Lastly, the Bengals defense finds their way in this table for the first time this season and its more of a function of their opponent, the Miami Dolphins, than the 'strength' of the Bengals defense; team defenses facing the Dolphins average 10.6 fantasy points per game, which is 2nd-highest in the league.

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