In a Backfield Breakdown, we will look at a team's running backs from all angles. Is there a bell-cow back on the roster? How about sleepers? What roles do we foresee from the running backs? Let's find out about the Eagles right now.
Gone are some big names: Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles, and Jay Ajayi. The biggest name left is Miles Sanders. Is this backfield primarily his? Or can Boston Scott carve out a real role? Will the Eagles bring in another veteran? Is another young back ready to step in and get notable touches? How does this backfield shake out in 2020?
Jeff Haseley
It's easy to view the Philadelphia ground game as a two-name backfield, Miles Sanders and Boston Scott. However, Mike Warren, or perhaps a veteran signing, may have a bigger role than we think. At 5'9, 226 pounds, Warren has the size and frame to handle short-yardage situations and potentially, goal-line carries. Warren is an undrafted rookie free agent, so his path to a role may take some time and confidence. Elijah Holyfield is also an option, but he was released by Carolina in his attempt to make the team last year. Could he have better luck with Philadelphia? Possibly, but not likely.
Another option is a veteran signing, such as Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, or even a reunion with LeSean McCoy. The likelihood that the Eagles stick with two main running back options seems low. This invites an opportunity for a veteran to come in and play a complementary role.
The other option, which currently looks like it might be the primary strategy, is that Miles Sanders becomes the team's three-down back with additional support from Boston Scott, especially as a receiving threat. At 5'11, 215 pounds, Sanders has a prototypical frame for a capable and successful running back in the league. As a rookie, Sanders averaged 4.6 yards on 179 carries in 16 games with an additional 50 receptions for 509 yards. Looking at projecting only his rushing stats by increasing carries and keeping the same yards-per-carry metric, Sanders jumps to 920 yards on 200 carries, 1,150 yards on 250 carries, and 1,380 yards on 300 carries. It's easy to project over 1,500 yards from scrimmage for the second-year pro. Even if Philadelphia signs another back to boost the depth chart, Sanders still stands to receive the bulk of the team's carries and is the best option for the Eagles at running back this season. The game film has shown that Sanders can struggle to find the right gap to run through at times, but there is no doubting his athleticism and versatility. If his volume of carries increases in 2020 as expected, Sanders can be a top 10 fantasy running back, and perhaps higher if more touchdowns follow his production.
Jeff Pasquino
Miles Sanders came in last year as a rookie, and Philadelphia wanted to make sure that they kept him fresh. That was not easy after Jordan Howard was injured and a playoff push fell in their laps, so a lot of last-leg veterans (Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles) and a fresh face (Boston Scott) had to step up and provide some relief for Sanders.
Entering 2020, Sanders is now the lead back and is far and away the top dog in a backfield that is razor thin after the top option. Even with Sanders the clear leader, Philadelphia wisely does not want him to wear down for another potential postseason push. That means someone has to provide some game day relief for Sanders, and the common thought is that Boston Scott can be that guy.
Scott is an interesting story, as he started 2019 as a practice squad player but saw action when the cupboard was essentially bare behind Sanders. Scott had fresh legs in December and looked fast, but questions will come for Scott as he is now a known quantity with reps on game film that defenses can study, and he will be part of the offense all season long. He has demonstrated feature back capabilities in limited action, but assuming he will get more than 20-25% of the work is a bit too much to expect. It will be Sanders' backfield for sure.
The bigger question - perhaps literally - is the depth behind Sanders and Scott. Neither back is a big bruiser, goal-line type - and that could easily be the best description of rookie Michael Warren (Cincinnati). Warren wrapped up his 39-game career as a Bearcat with 576 carries and 3,371 scrimmage yards, including 38 touchdowns and a 5.4 yards-per-carry. Warren has notable size (6'2, 213) and is a smash-mouth, between-the-tackles type runner built for goal-line situations.
The wild card is Elijah Holyfield, who I thought was a good backup for Christin McCaffrey in Carolina (news flash - McCaffrey never comes off the field). Holyfield has a good mixture of skills and can contribute in multiple phases of the game, but he might be fourth on the depth chart at best.
Note that Corey Clement is likely to make the roster as another running back, as he does know the offense quite well, but he's far more useful on special teams for the Eagles. If Philadelphia keeps only four backs, Clement may push Warren or (more likely) Holyfield off the roster.
One last note -- and I am more wishful and hopeful that the Eagles think this way, but we shall see -- Philadelphia has the depth to build a second-string 4-minute drill team to wrap up games, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons. Given that the Eagles added Jalen Hurts at quarterback, they could build a 4-minute skill positions team with Hurts and Warren to run the ball or even use their younger wideouts that were drafted in April plus tight end Dallas Goedert to not only rest their starters but also to wind down the clock and preserve a victory. Given that all of their starters - including quarterback Carson Wentz - have had issues with injury, the ability to get them off of the field in the fourth quarter would be a major plus to keeping everyone healthy all season.
Andrew Davenport
Miles Sanders is certainly going to get his shot to take control of the backfield. But I don't think that he earns a significantly larger portion of the backfield than he did in 2019. He had 229 touches last year, and I see him in that neighborhood again with perhaps a modest bump to 250 or so. I believe Doug Pederson is a good enough coach that he's not going to simply rotate backs just because "that's what he does". But on the other hand, I think Pederson understands what he has in Sanders and that he's not going to suddenly decide he deserves 325 touches. There is plenty of evidence that Sanders isn't the most gifted runner with his vision, and his between the tackles efficiency has been lacking at times. The backfield is definitely his, but there will be plenty of non-Sanders opportunities to go around, and someone else grabbing the goal-line role wouldn't surprise me either.
Boston Scott was quite a fun story at the end of last season. He caught 23 passes in just four games to end the year. Not only that, but the Eagles saw fit to give him 12 red-zone touches as well. Giving Scott over 5 catches per game may not be sustainable, but I absolutely believe he's proven that he deserves a role. Don't forget Pederson's fascination with Darren Sproles long past when it was an effective use of running back touches. Scott has been one of my favorite late-round choices in deeper leagues. I don't see him earning anything like an equal split, but I do believe in him stepping up for the touches behind Sanders.
I can't say that I'm full of knowledge about the guys behind the top two, but from what I know about them I'm surprised that Philadelphia would feel like their running back situation is settled. None of the options there are particularly noteworthy, and Scott - a guy who has bounced around practice squads - as the class of the backups doesn't say much for most of them either. I think this points to it being somewhat likely the Eagles will sign a veteran to take some touches. If that happens I believe Scott suffers the most, although he'll still have a role catching passes. They've already flirted with Devonta Freeman, and usually, the veterans like Freeman or Lamar Miller realize that if they want to keep playing they'll have to do so for a small, team-friendly contract. I would be pretty surprised if the Eagles didn't take this route.
Jason Wood
You guys pretty much nailed it. I don't know how much more I can add. Sanders steadily gained the coaches' trust last year and we the bellcow by season's end. The front office's willingness to part ways with Jordan Howard, and not target the position in this year's draft, speaks volumes for how much they believe in Sanders.
As you all noted, Boston Scott's heroics last year is the stuff of legend. Many Eagles fans didn't even know his name at the start of last year and he ended up being essential due to a litany of injuries. He showed enough last year to earn the No. 2 job.
If it weren't for Covid-19 and a lost preseason, I would think it's a lock the team adds a veteran like Lamar Miller or Devonta Freeman. But with a lack of preseason games, and limited ability to install the offense with newcomers, I'm not sure it's the priority some of you think. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they signed someone.
Jeff Tefertiller
I like Sanders more than most, but it would be foolish to assume he will get 75% of the touches. The Eagles use their RBs in many ways. Given their relative fantasy acquisition cost, I prefer Scott. While Sanders played well down the stretch, so did Scott. Also, my projections include a veteran signing. This was validated after the team wanted Carlos Hyde. Right now, I am expecting Sanders with 60% of touches, Scott 30%, and the others at 10%.
Scott showed solid goal-line and receiving chops last year so his touches should be higher in value than Sanders'.
Devin Knotts
As it stands now, the answer is Miles Sanders will see an increase in his role. The question is how much of an increase will he see. Sanders/Jordan Howard combined for 298 carries last season, which seems too high for a guy who has only seen 20 carries 4 times since high school. He is a guy that should top out in the 225-230 range in terms of carries.
Corey Clement is the guy that I expect to see the second-most carries on this team. The big question for Clement throughout his career has been health as he has been placed on Injured Reserve each of the last two seasons and this is basically his last shot as the Eagles let him go as a Restricted Free Agent only to sign him back on a one-year deal. To me, he is the guy that if Sanders went down, would leap into the starting role as Boston Scott's role is somewhat limited based on size.
Jeff Pasquino
Have to strongly disagree with Corey Clement getting the No. 2 role, Devin.
He's had a few chances to take on bigger roles, but he cannot impress enough to get regular work. He's relegated to special teams and very little else.
Bob Henry
Like Jason, I think you guys covered the high points I'd make with the focus being on the ascendance of Miles Sanders as the Eagles featured back while acknowledging the emergence of Boston Scott. I don't think Scott was a fluke or just a one-time late season surge. He's a legitimate talent who is capable of producing in a number of situational areas that underscore his value to the team. These two seem locked into their roles without the benefit of an offseason or any further personnel moves.
If we are looking at a dark horse here, I personally favor Michael Warren over Holyfield or Clements. He has versatility and functional size. Versatility seems like a critical factor for how the Eagles and their usage under Pederson. Size is a differentiating factor for Warren, but the versatility may give him the leg up on Holyfield, but not necessarily Clements because of his ability on special teams.
I don't necessarily expect a veteran free-agent addition at this stage but if injuries strike then that may be a forced issue leading to one of the many names discussed coming into the picture (Freeman, Miller, McCoy, etc.).
For draft purposes, Sanders is being priced appropriately and I couldn't really blame anyone for prioritizing Sanders over several backs in his range (or even some ahead of him). It's Scott that intrigues me even more as a mid-late round pick that can provide week-to-week plug-in value if they're both healthy. It seems like he could continue to get red zone looks and score 5-6 touchdowns while catching 35+ passes easily. Scott has a good PPR floor for your RB bench spots, but he carries upside as well if his role or usage increases slightly to keep Sanders healthy. If his touch share increases by 5 to 10%, then he becomes an excellent value as a handcuff or not.
Chris Allen
I think everyone's nailed it.
I'm less concerned with Sanders and Scott from a volume standpoint as the team has basically told us through the draft and free agency that they're satisfied with the duo. Does that change over the next few weeks? It's possible but doesn't largely change my view on either. I think my primary concern is what Sanders' pass-catching role will look like in 2020.
Typically, we look at running backs around his ADP for their dual-threat ability or significant rushing share (Derrick Henry comes to mind). I wonder how much of Sanders' targets came out of necessity due to the injuries sustained at WR and at least one of Ertz or Goedert missing a game. To be fair, players like Jordan Howard and LeGarrette Blount have led the backfield in recent years past. Regardless, I think his adequately priced but I'm unsure of his ability to maintain a 10% target share in the offense.
Phil Alexander
Yeah, Howie Roseman and Pederson investing a second-rounder in Sanders last year was an admission of guilt. They were showing their hand to opposing defenses every time they lined up Blount and Howard in the backfield. Sanders, and to a lesser extent Scott, can be used in all phases, including running passing routes.
That said, I'm with Chris. We can't just project Sanders' late-season target volume forward. The Eagles were down to former undrafted free agent, Greg Ward, as their WR1 by season's end, which necessitated funneling targets to Sanders. It shouldn't ding his fantasy stock too much, however, due to the overall quality of the Eagles offense and the fact Sanders is a capable pass-catcher.
Bob Henry
I'm less concerned about Sanders' ability to sustain a passing role. He was running vertical routes and making splash plays as a receiver in the first half of the season (2-73-0, 4-49-0, 3-86-1) already. His target volume definitely increased as pointed out due to attrition all over the offense, but I will agree that his receptions could fall back to around 40 if the Eagles have all their weapons on the field (plus Scott getting a fair number of those out of the backfield, too).
Knowing that Sanders was efficient on fewer receptions and able to run routes as opposed to just take dump offs gives me confidence that his workload will be fine and on par with his ADP peers.
Dan Hindery
The Eagles running backs combined for 447 fantasy points last season (PPR), which was a Top 5 team total. Given that context, there is room for Miles Sanders to have a great fantasy season even if he doesn't dominate the backfield touches. With a similar fantasy output for the Eagles backfield, Sanders could finish as a Top 5 back if he can manage even 60-65% of the share of the touches.
Projecting 60% of the production to Sanders feels about right, which makes him a strong value at his current ADP. Boston Scott can be a bye-week flex option if he gets 30% of the touches, which also feels about right.
Sigmund Bloom
At this moment we can't make a final call on this backfield because the Eagles have shown an inclination to sign a veteran back to reinforce this group. If they don't, then Sanders going in the late first round isn't crazy, he already showed he can deliver that kind of value last year after Jordan Howard got hurt, and that was with Boston Scott getting enough snaps and touches to be an RB2 in PPR leagues. Scott remains a priority late-round fantasy pick with that pass-catching ability and proven production, and the chance to actually grow his role if they don't bring in someone like Devonta Freeman.
Jordan McNamara
I like Jeff's and Dan's projections of Miles Sanders in the 60-65% of the workload range, which is plenty for a high-end finish. There will be a role for the rest of the depth chart to take 30-40% of the workload, but I do not think it is clear it is Boston Scott. I think Michael Warren is an interesting deeper sleeper as a UDFA.
Matt Waldman
Miles Sanders struggled with zone blocking. He didn't show strong identification and or patience with developing blocks and sometimes simply went "college" on too many plays and attempted to outrun everyone to the edge--and unsuccessfully enough that the Eagles limited his opportunities early.
Philadelphia has one of the smarter coaching units right now and it did what smart coaches do: It adjusted the offensive scheme to accommodate what Sanders does best. Sanders is an excellent athlete for the running back position but like Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller, and Tevin Coleman before him, he lacks refined vision for the zone game.
Gap plays are a great fit for Sanders because the concept places a greater onus on the offensive line to create one crease and less demand on the runner's ability to process and react behind the line of scrimmage. Gap plays ask the runner to set up one crease and hit it hard.
Once the Eagles gave Sanders more gap plays, he had consistent success. The problem with gap plays is that they are harder to execute with consistent success in the NFL, especially short-yardage situations unless the offensive line is a top-notch unit. Because the Eagles have a good offensive line and Jason Peters is still quite athletic--especially for a guard--Sanders will have enough chances to succeed this year.
However, few NFL offenses want to strictly run gap and this offense was probably conceived to be more of a zone-spread scheme. Boston Scott is a good zone runner and he's a well-built runner with excellent burst and change of direction quickness.
While Mike Warren is a lot of draftniks favorite sleeper--and he's stylistically similar to Mike Anderson--Warren is neither as quick or fast as Anderson. Elijah Holyfield is also a slowpoke for a running back. Expect the Eagles to hope that Sanders did some work during the offseason to improve his zone running. If not, expect similar production as last year with perhaps a little more love to Scott than most expect. If that happens, the Eagles are shopping for another back in 2021.
Andy Hicks
I’m not sure this is that complicated.
Miles Sanders is the choice to target. He will be the dominant ball carrier and got better as the year went on in his first year. All that is irrelevant now. How much can he grow from year one to year two and how much trust do the coaching staff have in his abilities? His best games were when all the receivers were injured and coincidentally when the favorite for the backup role, Boston Scott, played well.
Scott is seen as a sleeper and he may well be. If Sanders hasn’t improved and the coaching group loses confidence they will look for an available experienced back. Scott will be a complementary piece no matter what. He does hold some fantasy value, but his upside is capped. Anyone else is a stab in the dark and not really worth considering unless in the deepest of leagues.
Justin Howe
Doug Pedersen has established a bit of a Belichickian reputation for untrustworthy fantasy backfields. Despite Miles Sanders' playmaking breakout last year and Boston Scott's presence as a change-up guy, Pedersen and the front office still pursued help in the offseason. And it bears noting the backs they pursued - Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde - are established veteran runners, not special-teams filler. In other words: Pedersen and his staff were looking for a third option to spread the load around more. But just how much were they thinking?
It brings to mind Pedersen's second year at the helm, 2018, in which he gave late-round rookie bruiser Josh Adams 59% of the team's carries from the Week 10 bye on. By the postseason, though, he had fallen out of the rotation. By the start of 2019, he was off the roster, with the offense back to utilizing several versatile bodies at once.
Of course, Sanders is not Josh Adams. He's a much more skilled back in every facet, and the team invested a lot more in him. He's the clear name to take here, and an RB1 target in any format. It's just with a little more trepidation than most in his ADP tier. And Matt's analysis can't be tossed aside - Sanders is explosive but indeed quite raw as a runner. Yes, so is Alvin Kamara, but this isn't that kind of set-up. Sanders could cede 30% of the load to his reserves or 50%, and that difference means the world on the Round 1/2 turn.
Chad Parsons
Miles Sanders was a dynamic element for the Eagles as a rookie on an offense, especially a passing game, lacking big-play potential. Boston Scott is a nice niche player, but I doubt he is a factor in determining Sanders' upside as a Round 2 prototypically-sized back with a quality Year 1 under his belt. I like both Corey Clement and Michael Warren more than most. Clement was a dynamo in 2017 but has not turned into a larger role since. While not likely over Sanders or Scott, I hold out hope for Clement to resurface with a role elsewhere. To add some profile points on Warren, he has an ideal build, enters the NFL at 21 years old, and has >70% rushing and receiving scores in my proprietary prospect projection model. That quartet of traits is a strong combination for a running back prospect, especially when attached to minimal acquisition cost, like Warren.
