BOTTOM 5 PASSING MATCHUPS WEEK 11
To view all of our Week 11 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 11
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 11
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 11
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 11
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 11
Passing Matchup Chart Week 11
Tennessee at Baltimore
The Titans are fielding quite the efficient, yet low-volume passing offense this season. Ryan Tannehill has attempted just 282 passes for the Titans--sixth-fewest. However, he has led this team to 20 passing touchdowns with just three interceptions despite what has certainly been a run-first, but pass-when-needed offense. Tannehill has struggled in difficult matchups over the past two weeks, and that string of tough defenses continues with Baltimore now on deck. There has been no single stand-out pass-catcher for the Titans as production has been split pretty evenly between A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith--all of whom combine for 15 of the team’s 20 receiving touchdowns. Brown is the top overall playmaker here, but Davis has seen a pair of 100+ yard outings while Jonnu Smith has been a top red-zone threat with six touchdowns. Target volume for Smith has been down since early in the season though, as he has seen two or fewer receptions in five straight outings.
The Ravens defense continues to impress against opposing passing offenses this season, ranking seventh-best in passing yards allowed per game (213.3) and second-best in yards-per-attempt at 6.5. This unit has been particularly effective in recent weeks, allowing opposing quarterbacks to pass for a league-low 185 passing yards per game since Week 5. Cornerback Marlon Humphries is the anchor of this secondary and has done an excellent job at shutting down opposing wide receivers. He missed Week 9 with an injury, but returned to his usual high level of play last week and should represent a difficult matchup for A.J. Brown on the right side. The Ravens pass rush has also been strong this season despite the mediocre sack numbers. Their defensive line is not exactly elite, but Yannick Ngakoue should be a tough matchup for backup tackle Ty Sambrailo on the left side. It is the contributions from the secondary that help set this pass-rush apart, with both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey having success in creative pass-rush scenarios. This defense has allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers just once this season while also doing a decent job at limiting production from tight ends, so look for that success to continue against the low volume Titans passing attack.
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh
The Jacksonville passing game will continue to be led by rookie Jake Luton, who took over in Week 9 for the injured Gardner Minshew. Luton started his NFL career with a bang in Week 9, throwing a 73-yard touchdown pass to D.J. Chark Jr which vaulted him to a 300+ yards game in his first start. However, since that opening touchdown pass, Luton has averaged a sub-par 5.5 yards per attempt while turning the ball over three times to complement his two touchdown passes. D.J. Chark Jr has led Jacksonville handily in the receiving department this season and remains a top big-play threat in this offense. Luton has shown a solid connection with Chris Conley affording him eight targets in each of the past two games, but Conley’s involvement will depend on the health of Laviska Shenault Jr, who missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Shenault is questionable coming into this weekend, but if he suits up, expect a reduced role from Conley.
The Steelers defense continues to play extremely well, holding opposing offenses to just 19 total points per game (third-fewest) while limiting quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game this season. A quarterback has yet to exceed 280 yards against the Steelers, and since Week 6, the position is averaging only 210 yards per game while coughing up five interceptions to just seven passing touchdowns. A big reason for Pittsburgh’s success against the pass has been the relentless pressure applied from their defensive line, ranking first in the league with 36 sacks. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville’s mediocre pass-blocking offensive line has given up the sixth-most sacks (28) in the league--stacking up to be quite the mismatch in the trenches. This defense has also excelled at shutting down routes in the middle of the field, as both tight ends and running backs are averaging near league-lows in production. With that, almost 80% of air yards against the Steelers have been funneled to wide receivers. D.J. Chark Jr has a slight advantage in his matchup, but the rest of these Jaguars receivers and skilled position players will be tough to rely on this week.
Tampa Bay vs LA Rams
The Tampa Bay passing offense has been a feast or famine kind of group this season. On one hand, Tom Brady and company have finished half of their games with less than 255 passing yards and a total of five interceptions to just six touchdowns in those outings. The other half, however, consists of a passing attack averaging 331 yards per game with 17 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Mechanically, Brady has looked off for the past few weeks as he struggled with accuracy and decisiveness. However, the plethora of weapons at his disposal continues to make this a high-floor passing offense. Mike Evans made a resurgence last week with a team-leading 11 targets, but he remains tough to trust after so many sub-par outings this season. Chris Godwin has been slightly more predictable, when healthy, and continues to see a high volume of snaps and targets. Antonio Brown is also seeing volume with only two games under his belt, leading the team with seven receptions in last week’s game. Finally, Rob Gronkowski has returned to his status of a staple in the red zone, finding the end zone in four of his last five games.
The Rams come into this week’s game as one of the league’s best and most balanced passing defenses. A stout defensive line anchored by Aaron Donald has racked up 31 sacks this season--tied for third-most. Tampa Bay’s defensive line has done well in pass protection, but they have struggled when facing teams with similarly-elite pass rushes, giving up three sacks per game to the Saints (twice) and Bears. In the secondary, the Rams have shut-down cornerback Jalen Ramsey to pair with Darious Williams, who has been surprisingly impressive throughout the season. This elite pass rush combined with a pair of extremely talented cornerbacks has led to opposing wide receivers scoring the league’s fewest fantasy points per game (PPR scoring) when facing the Rams. The Buccaneers have some talented offensive weapons, but a great way to rattle Tom Brady throughout his career has been placing him under constant pressure. With the advantage going to Los Angeles in the trenches, combined with what should be smothering coverage in the secondary, the outlook for Tampa Bay looks relatively bleak in this one.
Green Bay at Indianapolis
The Packers passing offense has been humming as of late, with Aaron Rodgers averaging 301 yards and 3.25 touchowns per game in the last four weeks. Rodgers has now passed for three or more touchdowns in two-thirds of his games with only three interceptions on the season. There is no doubt he is having a great year, and Davante Adams has been the primary beneficiary with a league-leading 105.9 yards per game and nine touchdowns despite missing two games this season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a great game last season and has been relatively involved in the passing game, while Robert Tonyan Jr continues to see looks as the primary pass-catching tight end. A big reason for Green Bay’s success has been the stellar play of their offensive line, giving Aaron Rodgers plenty of time to do damage. This week, however, that unit will certainly be tested by what has been an equally stellar front seven of the Colts.
Indianapolis has been quite a difficult matchup for nearly every quarterback they have faced this season. This defense is holding opposing passing offense to the second-fewest passing yards per game (198.7) while yielding the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. A big part of their success has been simply executing their defensive plan, as these Colts defenders are the best tacklers in the league, having missed only 35 tackles in nine games. Darius Leonard continues to anchor this group at linebacker while rookie Julian Blackmon continues to get better game by game at safety. Veteran cornerback Xavier Rhodes has played as one of the top cornerbacks in the league and will welcome the tough matchup from Davante Adams, a familiar face from Rhodes’ time with the Vikings. The defensive line for Indianapolis has also been a key strength and will match up well against an equally strong Packers offensive line. Getting DeForest Buckner mismatched against one of the weaker Packers offensive guards will be a big key to generating pressure, which is something the Colts have done effectively for most of the season and will try to replicate this week.
Cleveland vs Philadelphia
The Browns passing offense has struggled all season, partly due to poor play from Baker Mayfield and in part due to a run-focused offensive scheme that limits what is needed from the passing attack. Mayfield has failed to eclipse 200 passing yards in six of nine games and continues to be mistake-prone with seven interceptions. Now two games in without top receiver Odell Beckham Jr no clear top target has emerged in this passing offense. Jarvis Landry is the de factor WR1, but he has eclipsed 50 yards just twice this season. Rashard Higgins continues to get looks given his rapport with Mayfield, while tight end Austin Hooper recently returned from injury and should begin contributing again. Kareem Hunt also continues to be a threat out of the backfield as he has seen at least three targets in all but two games.
Philadelphia’s passing defense has done a fine job this season, holding opposing offenses to the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (211.8). They’ve seen strong play from the secondary, particularly at the safety position with Jalen Mills and veteran Rodney McLeod. This group has been excellent at limiting big plays, giving up a league-low two plays of 40 or more yards and only 22 plays of 20 or more yards (third-best). Play from their cornerbacks has been up and down, but Darius Slay should have the advantage over Higgins while these strong safeties will help cover Jarvis Landry from the slot, as Landry actually has the edge over slot cornerback Cre'Von LeBlanc. The Eagles defensive line should put up a strong fight in the trenches though, as this unit has notched 31 sacks on the year (T-3rd most) with at least three sacks in four straight games. This Eagles defense will force the Browns to beat them on the ground in what will be another tough matchup for Baker Mayfield and company.