With all this year's organized team activities (OTAs) and mandatory minicamps behind us, the NFL will take its annual month-long break before training camps start rolling out in the second half of July.
Ideally, there won't be much going on -- in terms of NFL news -- during this lull in the action. But for fantasy managers who take their preparation seriously, there is no downtime.
That's why the Fantasy Notebook will keep rolling with a position-by-position series on underrated players.
We'll get the ball rolling this week with Underrated Running Backs, starting at the top of the heap.
RB2s With RB1 Outcomes
While it's the case more often than not, underrated doesn't necessarily mean undervalued. Today, we'll look at some running backs currently being drafted as RB2s who have legitimate shots at RB1 production. How do we know this? They've both done it before . . .
Still Capable of a Top-Five Finish?
The Jets told us what they think about Breece Hall when they signed him to a three-year, $43.5 million contract extension in May. The contract includes $29 million in guarantees.
And they think he's one of the best in the league.
The average per year ($14.5 million) ranks fourth among running backs, behind Saquon Barkley ($20.6 million), Christian McCaffrey ($19 million), and Derrick Henry ($15 million). Hall moved past Super Bowl MVP Ken Walker III ($14.35 million), who signed a free-agent contract with the Kansas City Chiefs in March.
A Surprising Development?
According to ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, Hall's deal was "a rather stunning turn of events, considering his name was floated in trade talks last fall."
Although he generated significant interest at the midseason trading deadline, the Jets decided to retain Hall, making him one of the key parts of their rebuild.
A 2022 second-round pick, Hall has expressed frustration about the Jets' losing, but showed appreciation to the franchise in his social media post reacting to the deal.
"Cried for the first time since I tore my ACL. This day really hit different for me, man," Hall said in a post on X after the news of his new deal broke.
Fantasy investors hoping for a change of scenery might have wept a bit as well. But should we?
Should Hall Get a Pass?
Hall, who turned 25 on May 31, delivered his best statistical rushing season last year. He saw career highs in carries (243) and yards (1,065) and scored four rushing touchdowns. Coaches hyped him as a dual-threat who would have a huge impact in the passing game, but that never materialized.
He caught only 36 passes, his second-lowest total in four seasons.
Still, his production was solid considering the circumstances: The 3-14 Jets averaged just 263.6 yards per game on offense, which ranked 29th in the NFL.
The rushing attack, which ranked 10th in the league, wasn't the problem.
The Jets' record with Hall is 22-46, under three different coaches, but he and wide receiver Garrett Wilson are their only two proven playmakers.
So, even if his efforts are easy to overlook, Hall is still very good.
The Range of Outcomes
It's not hard to figure out the high end here. Hall was on pace to be in the discussion for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022 before his first season was cut short by an ACL injury in Week 7.
He returned in 2023 and delivered 1,585 scrimmage yards, the second-most among running backs. That included 994 rushing yards at a 4.5-yard per carry clip. Hall also hauled in 76 receptions on 90 targets that season.
He finished as RB2 with 288.5 fantasy points that year.
But Hall disappointed investors in 2024, finishing with 1,359 scrimmage yards (14th among running backs) and eight touchdowns. He ran for 876 yards (54.8 per game) in 2024. His receptions fell to 57 on 74 targets.
His RB16 finish fell short of his RB3 Average Draft Position (ADP) that summer when he was selected with the sixth pick overall.
The Argument for the High End
If you're looking for reasons to believe Hall will regain that 2023 form this season, it would have to start with an offensive turnaround in New York.
The Jets should get improved quarterback play. Geno Smith is an upgrade over Justin Fields, and additions to the receiving corps should create space for Hall in the run game.
Things should also be different under new offensive coordinator Frank Reich.
Cimini reminded readers that Reich is known for maximizing his running backs' dual-threat capabilities.
Hall's usage in the passing game is expected to expand significantly. Reich plans to feature him more frequently as a receiver out of the backfield and keep him on the field for third downs, which will help elevate a New York offense with Smith under center.
Setting Aside the Concerns
Because it's the Jets, there's some risk here. The presence of fellow running backs Braelon Allen, who returns from a knee injury, and Isaiah Davis could be limiting factors.
Still, Footballguy Jason Wood argues that, barring injury, it's hard to foresee a scenario where Hall isn't the most valuable fantasy player on the Jets. While the overall team situation may cap his upside, his projected usage should guarantee him low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 value most weeks.
His current RB13 Footballguys projection, RB14 ADP, and his career numbers all lend credence to that belief.
Since entering the league, Hall ranks 10th in scrimmage yards, sixth in yards per touch, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs despite the Jets' playcalling and quarterbacking issues.
That's RB1 talent. The upside is worth chasing in Round 3.