Cracking DraftKings Week 17

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 51
• Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 51.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Buccaneers on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Patriots at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Bills at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Rams on the road against the Ravens - Implied Team Total 25.75
• 49ers at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 28.25
• Eagles on the road against Washington - Implied Team Total 24.5
• Chargers at home vs. the Broncos - Implied Team Total 26

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo is listed as doubtful so we can be all but certain Trey Lance will make his second NFL start on Sunday. Lance has the benefit of playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense that historically has gotten the most out of his Quarterbacks and offenses, most recently this season where the 49ers rank fourth in overall DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA despite Garoppolo's presence. Lance ran for 1,325 yards and 18 touchdowns in only 19 collegiate appearances and ran for 89 yards on 16 attempts in his only NFL start back in Week 5. Lance's dual-threat skill set is mouth-watering as is his home matchup against a vulnerable Texans defense and his bottom-of-the-barrel $4,800 price tag.

Josh Allen ranks ninth in pass yards per game (269.9) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and also averages 41.3 rush yards per game. He gets to play at home against a putrid Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. The Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week.

Tom Brady ranks first in both pass yards per game (305.3) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and pass DVOA. He gets to attack literally the worst-ranked defense (Jets) in the league in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week.

Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in pass yards per game (289.3) and tied for second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4) and gets to attack a depleted Ravens defense that just got demolished by Joe Burrow and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Baltimore's defense actually ranks sixth-best in run DVOA, making them a pass funnel Stafford should be able to exploit in an intriguing fantasy game.

Running Backs

The Patriots are 16.5 point home favorites against the 2-13 Jaguars and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels love to run the ball at will when they can and this most certainly projects as one of those spots. Expect Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to form some sort of committee but there should be plenty of pieces of the pie to go around and it should be noted Stevenson missed last week while on the COVID list. The Jaguars' defense ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA.

Ronald Jones II played on 52% of the offensive snaps and received 23 opportunities last week despite sharing time with Ke'Shawn Vaughn. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. The Jets defense ranks dead last in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA.

Darrell Henderson won't play on Sunday and Sony Michel has already averaged 25 opportunities per game over the last four weeks. The Ravens are decimated on defense as they rank 28th in overall DVOA and this is likely the main reason the Rams are 5.5 point favorites despite this game being in Baltimore. The Ravens have been more stout against the run but Michel is being used in the passing game as well.

James Conner is officially listed as questionable but it was also reported he would be a Game Time Decision for the second week in a row after missing Week 16. Chase Edmonds received 25 opportunities last week as the lead Running Back while Conner was sidelined. If Conner misses again, Edmonds becomes highly intriguing in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. Dallas' defense has quickly become possibly the best defensive unit in the entire NFL, but Edmonds possesses a dual-threat skill set that can deliver no matter the game script.

Jonathan Taylor is the best Running Back in fantasy but he finds himself listed below these other Running Backs because there are more viable affordable Running Backs this week than usual. Meanwhile, Taylor costs $9,000. Carson Wentz has cleared COVID protocol and is eligible to play on Sunday. This helps Taylor, who is clearly a fantastic play in all fantasy formats at home against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA. Taylor ranks fifth in the league in opportunities per game (22.8).

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp is on pace to break receiving records and gets to attack a depleted Ravens defense that just got demolished by Joe Burrow and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. You know the drill here.

Stefon Diggs gets to play at home against a putrid Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. The Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. Diggs ranks tenth in targets per game (9.4).

Jaylen Waddle ranks 13th in targets per game (9) and tied for sixth in receptions (96) as his game pairs perfectly with Tua Tagovailoa's skill sets. Waddle has caught at least eight passes in four straight games.

Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase both went off last week as Joe Burrow destroyed a depleted Ravens secondary. A week later, they get to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against the Chiefs. Both offenses should be pushed in this competitive battle, meaning Higgins and Chase project to be very busy once again.

Josh Reynolds is on the COVID list and Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen at least 11 targets and caught at least eight passes in four straight games. He has a favorable matchup to keep it going this week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.

Tight Ends

Chris Godwin is out, Mike Evans is legitimately questionable, and Antonio Brown is a game-time decision after tweaking his ankle this week in practice. Rob Gronkowski remains the one constant in this offense and he's set up to smash. Tom Brady ranks first in both pass yards per game (305.3) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and pass DVOA. He gets to attack literally the worst-ranked defense (Jets) in the league in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. It would be very surprising to see Gronkowski not receive a considerable amount of action this week given all of the variables working in his favor.

Travis Kelce missed last week while on the COVID list but is all systems go for this important matchup against the Bengals. Kelce's one-week absence shouldn't disrupt his extreme presence in Kansas City's offense as he ranks 15th in the league in targets per game (8.7).

Mark Andrews is on an absolute tear. Over his past three games, Andrews has seen double-digit targets, caught at least eight passes, gone over 100 yards, and caught at least one touchdown in all three games. And he's done it while playing with three different Quarterbacks! Andrews is a solid play if you have the salary to make it work.

Team Defenses

The Patriots are 16.5 point home favorites against the 2-13 Jaguars and Jacksonville has the lowest Implied Team Total (12.75) of the week. New England's defense ranks third in overall DVOA.

The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and the Jets have the seventh-lowest Implied Team Total (16.25) of the week.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

The Chiefs at Bengals has the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week. Joe Burrow is sure to be popular in such an intriguing fantasy game after his record day last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes II, who ranks fifth in pass yards per game (287.3) and is tied for fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2), is an intriguing tournament play in the very same game. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have really only been pushed to succeed once in Kansas City's past eight games, a 34-28 overtime victory against the Chargers in Week 15 in which Mahomes threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns. The 9-6 Bengals project to push Mahomes in this one, especially with this game in Cincinnati.

Jalen Hurts has run for ten touchdowns and ranks 26th in the entire league in rush yards per game (52.9). A dual-threat weapon with scintillating upside, Hurts now gets to set his sights on a Washington defense that ranks 27th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Hurts just destroyed this defense two weeks ago, throwing for 296 yards and a touchdown while adding 38 rush yards and two rush touchdowns.

Dak Prescott gets to play at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. The Cardinals have a solid pass defense but Prescott is coming off of a red hot performance against Washington where he threw for 330 yards and four pass touchdowns in only about 2.5 quarters of action. Prescott ranks sixth in pass yards per game (280.6) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (2.1). This projects as a competitive game where Prescott and the Cowboys' offense should be pushed to produce for all four quarters.

This is a situation worth monitoring Sunday morning but all signs point to Tyler Huntley starting for the Ravens on Sunday. It's important to note Huntley missed Week 16 while on the COVID list and players have been struggling in their first game action back after being activated off the COVID list. Still, Huntley is priced at only $5,600 and just threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns while adding 73 yards and two touchdowns on the ground as well back in Week 15. The Rams aren't an easy draw for Huntley but the Packers were a similarly tough defense in Week 15 and this week's game is in Baltimore.

Running Backs

The Bears are six-point home favorites against a Giants team without their starting Quarterback and with only one remaining healthy Wide Receiver, Kenny Golladay. Matt Nagy has ridden David Montgomery all year when he's been healthy as Montgomery ranks seventh in the league in opportunities per game (20.8) and game flow on Sunday should allow Nagy to feed Montgomery until his wheels fall off. Montgomery is more than talented enough to take advantage of a Giants defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA.

Devin Singletary has averaged 20.5 opportunities per game over the past two weeks. The bills have essentially forgotten about their other Running Backs and decided to roll with Singletary down the stretch. Well, giddy up because the Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. Singletary has an incredible matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 25th in run DVOA.

Joe Mixon ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.3) and gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Chiefs defense that ranks 21st in run DVOA. We have Mixon's ownership percentage projected for only 11.2%.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire won't play on Sunday meaning Darrel Williams will start at Running Back for the Chiefs in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Williams averaged 19.2 opportunities per game in Weeks 6-10 earlier in the year when Edwards-Helaire was out with an injury. Williams is very viable as a dual-threat playing with Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid.

Rashaad Penny has averaged 16 opportunities over the past three weeks and produced two very solid outings over that span. He now gets to play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 28th in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown returned to the lineup last week to play on 74% of the offensive snaps, catching 11 of 16 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. Brown is an alpha Wide Receiver and the clear-cut top option for not only Ryan Tannehill, but the Titans offense as a whole. And from a leverage standpoint, although the Dolphins defense ranks sixth in pass DVOA, their schedule over their past seven games has been incredibly soft.

CeeDee Lamb gets to play at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. This projects as a competitive contest where Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense should be pushed to produce for all four quarters. That's exciting for Lamb, who was essentially the only star to not post a big game in the Cowboys' Week 16 route of Washington, from a tournament perspective. We have Lamb projected for only an 8.1% ownership percentage. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper projects for only 4.1% ownership, and the thesis of the play is the same for Cooper as well.

Odell Beckham gets to attack a depleted Ravens defense that just got demolished by Joe Burrow and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. We have Beckham projected for only a 3.5% ownership percentage which is extremely exciting since just two weeks ago, we saw the Ravens shadow coverage toward Davante Adams all game. Expect a similar defensive game plan for Cooper Kupp, which should mean more targets for Beckham in one-on-one coverage. Beckham has the talent to blow up if this comes to fruition. But let's not forget about Van Jefferson, who we have projected for only a 2.1% ownership percentage. Jefferson gets the majority of the deep balls in this offense and Matthew Stafford and Jefferson are more than capable of delivering on one or two bombs in this favorable matchup.

Tyreek Hill only played on 42% of the offensive snaps last week shortly after being activated from the COVID list. We have no way of knowing how Hill will be feeling this week, but we should reasonably expect Hill to return to a full-time player. If he does, he's a very fun tournament play in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs offense have really only been pushed to succeed once in Kansas City's past eight games, a 34-28 overtime victory against the Chargers in Week 15 in which Mahomes threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns. The 9-6 Bengals project to push Mahomes and Hill in this one, especially with this game in Cincinnati.

I'm pretty much done with betting on the Seahawks offense this year as Russell Wilson hasn't been the same since he returned from his finger injury and quite simply, I believe he has one foot out the door already as I don't envision him back on the Seahawks in 2022. If that does come to fruition, this might be the last legitimate week we have to bet on the Wilson to Tyler Lockett connection, one of my favorites in NFL History. After being on the COVID list, Lockett returned last week to play on 86% of the offensive snaps. He'll be in his normal role at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

Tyler Boyd gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against the Chiefs. Both offenses should be pushed in this competitive battle, meaning Zac Taylor shouldn't be able to limit Joe Burrow even if he wants to on Sunday. Boyd doesn't even get mentioned in the same breath as Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase but he should, at least when discussing tournament DFS plays, since he's a full-time player just like his teammates. We have Boyd projected at 2.9% ownership which allows us to gain contrarian exposure to Joe Burrow.

Tight Ends

George Kittle did not play in Trey Lance's only start this year back in Week 5. With the masses focused on Trey Lance's rushing upside, few are likely thinking about what Lance and Kittle could do together through the air. Playing at home against the Texans, Kittle could go absolutely bonkers if given the targets and if Lance delivers. Those "ifs" are why we have Kittle projected at only 2.8% ownership. Kittle that low-owned in a good matchup at home? Sign me up.

Dallas Goedert simply shouldn't be this cheap. Two weeks ago, Goedert caught seven of nine targets for 135 yards against this same Washington defense. And prior to the Eagles' Week 14 bye, Goedert put up 105 yards and two touchdowns on only six targets against the Jets. Goedert is one of the most talented Tight Ends in the league and has the matchup to go off again against a Washington defense that ranks 27th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.

Zach Ertz and Dalton Schultz will both play in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. Both are affordably priced and important starters for their offenses. Ertz is my preferred play since he has seen 24 targets over the past two weeks without DeAndre Hopkins. But Schultz has caught eight passes and a touchdown in back-to-back games in his own right.

Team Defenses

The Broncos will be without their starting quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, and without wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. Courtland Sutton will also possibly miss. The Chargers get to play at home against the disaster that is Drew Lock. Forget about last week, the Chargers are an awesome tournament D/ST play.

The Giants will be without their starting Quarterback, Daniel Jones, and only have one healthy Wide Receiver available currently in Kenny Golladay. The Bears are six-point home favorites and the Giants have the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (15.5) of the week.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Chris Godwin OUT, Antonio Brown Game Time Decision, and Mike Evans Questionable - Upgrade Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson, Cyril Grayson, Breshad Perriman, and Scotty Miller
• Jimmy Garoppolo Doubtful - Upgrade Trey Lance
• James Conner Questionable/Game Time Decision - Upgrade Chase Edmonds
• Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard both OUT - Upgrade Ronald Jones II
• Darrell Henderson OUT - Upgrade Sony Michel
• Antonio Gibson on the COVID list and J.D. McKissic OUT - Upgrade Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams
• Lamar Jackson Questionable but likely OUT - Upgrade Tyler Huntley
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire OUT - Upgrade Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore
• DeAndre Hopkins OUT and Rondale Moore Questionable - Upgrade Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, A.J. Green, and Antoine Wesley
• Marquise Brown and Devin Duvernay Questionable - Upgrade Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman
• Elijah Mitchell Questionable but expected to play - Upgrade Elijah Mitchell
• Miles Sanders OUT and Jordan Howard Questionable - Upgrade Boston Scott and Jordan Howard if he plays
• Teddy Bridgewater, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick all OUT, Courtland Sutton's status is in jeopardy as well, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon both Questionable - Upgrade Chargers D/ST, Noah Fant, and Albert Okwuegbunam
• Emmanuel Sanders Questionable - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, and Isaiah McKenzie
• Donald Parham OUT and Jared Cook on the COVID list - Upgrade Stephen Anderson
• Nelson Agholor OUT - Upgrade Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, NKeal Harry, and Hunter Henry
• Jack Doyle Questionable - Upgrade Mo Alie-Cox if Doyle sits
• David Johnson on the COVID list - Upgrade Rex Burkhead
• T.J. Hockenson OUT and Josh Reynolds on the COVID list - Upgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond
• Darren Waller on the COVID list - Upgrade Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau, and Zay Jones
• Tevin Coleman on the COVID list - Upgrade Michael Carter
• Corey Davis and Elijah Moore both OUT and Jamison Crowder Doubtful - Upgrade Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios, and Denzel Mims
• James Robinson and Carlos Hyde both OUT - Upgrade Dare Ogunbowale
• Jared Goff Doubtful - Upgrade Seahawks D/ST
• Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Bears D/ST
• Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, John Ross, and Collin Johnson all OUT and Darius Slayton on the COVID list - Upgrade Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram
• TreDavious White OUT - Upgrade the Falcons passing attack
• Marlon Humphrey OUT - Upgrade the Rams passing attack
• Stephon Gilmore OUT - Upgrade the Saints passing attack
• Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
• Trey Lance and George Kittle
• Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and Stefon Diggs
• Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II, and Rob Gronkowski
• Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb

Flag Plant Plays

• Damien Harris
• Ronald Jones II
• Odell Beckham
• CeeDee Lamb
• Rob Gronkowski