Cracking DraftKings Week 17

Favorite Games

• Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 51
• Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 51.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Buccaneers on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Patriots at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Bills at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Rams on the road against the Ravens - Implied Team Total 25.75
• 49ers at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 28.25
• Eagles on the road against Washington - Implied Team Total 24.5
• Chargers at home vs. the Broncos - Implied Team Total 26

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo is listed as doubtful so we can be all but certain Trey Lance will make his second NFL start on Sunday. Lance has the benefit of playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense that historically has gotten the most out of his Quarterbacks and offenses, most recently this season where the 49ers rank fourth in overall DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA despite Garoppolo's presence. Lance ran for 1,325 yards and 18 touchdowns in only 19 collegiate appearances and ran for 89 yards on 16 attempts in his only NFL start back in Week 5. Lance's dual-threat skill set is mouth-watering as is his home matchup against a vulnerable Texans defense and his bottom-of-the-barrel $4,800 price tag.

Josh Allen ranks ninth in pass yards per game (269.9) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and also averages 41.3 rush yards per game. He gets to play at home against a putrid Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. The Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week.

Tom Brady ranks first in both pass yards per game (305.3) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and pass DVOA. He gets to attack literally the worst-ranked defense (Jets) in the league in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week.

Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in pass yards per game (289.3) and tied for second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4) and gets to attack a depleted Ravens defense that just got demolished by Joe Burrow and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Baltimore's defense actually ranks sixth-best in run DVOA, making them a pass funnel Stafford should be able to exploit in an intriguing fantasy game.

Running Backs

The Patriots are 16.5 point home favorites against the 2-13 Jaguars and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels love to run the ball at will when they can and this most certainly projects as one of those spots. Expect Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson to form some sort of committee but there should be plenty of pieces of the pie to go around and it should be noted Stevenson missed last week while on the COVID list. The Jaguars' defense ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA.

Ronald Jones II played on 52% of the offensive snaps and received 23 opportunities last week despite sharing time with Ke'Shawn Vaughn. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. The Jets defense ranks dead last in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA.

Darrell Henderson won't play on Sunday and Sony Michel has already averaged 25 opportunities per game over the last four weeks. The Ravens are decimated on defense as they rank 28th in overall DVOA and this is likely the main reason the Rams are 5.5 point favorites despite this game being in Baltimore. The Ravens have been more stout against the run but Michel is being used in the passing game as well.

James Conner is officially listed as questionable but it was also reported he would be a Game Time Decision for the second week in a row after missing Week 16. Chase Edmonds received 25 opportunities last week as the lead Running Back while Conner was sidelined. If Conner misses again, Edmonds becomes highly intriguing in the game with the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week. Dallas' defense has quickly become possibly the best defensive unit in the entire NFL, but Edmonds possesses a dual-threat skill set that can deliver no matter the game script.

Jonathan Taylor is the best Running Back in fantasy but he finds himself listed below these other Running Backs because there are more viable affordable Running Backs this week than usual. Meanwhile, Taylor costs $9,000. Carson Wentz has cleared COVID protocol and is eligible to play on Sunday. This helps Taylor, who is clearly a fantastic play in all fantasy formats at home against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA. Taylor ranks fifth in the league in opportunities per game (22.8).

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp is on pace to break receiving records and gets to attack a depleted Ravens defense that just got demolished by Joe Burrow and that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. You know the drill here.

Stefon Diggs gets to play at home against a putrid Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. The Bills are 14.5 point home favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. Diggs ranks tenth in targets per game (9.4).

Jaylen Waddle ranks 13th in targets per game (9) and tied for sixth in receptions (96) as his game pairs perfectly with Tua Tagovailoa's skill sets. Waddle has caught at least eight passes in four straight games.

Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase both went off last week as Joe Burrow destroyed a depleted Ravens secondary. A week later, they get to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against the Chiefs. Both offenses should be pushed in this competitive battle, meaning Higgins and Chase project to be very busy once again.

Josh Reynolds is on the COVID list and Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen at least 11 targets and caught at least eight passes in four straight games. He has a favorable matchup to keep it going this week against a Seahawks defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.

Tight Ends

Chris Godwin is out, Mike Evans is legitimately questionable, and Antonio Brown is a game-time decision after tweaking his ankle this week in practice. Rob Gronkowski remains the one constant in this offense and he's set up to smash. Tom Brady ranks first in both pass yards per game (305.3) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and pass DVOA. He gets to attack literally the worst-ranked defense (Jets) in the league in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and are tied for the highest Implied Team Total (29.25) of the week. It would be very surprising to see Gronkowski not receive a considerable amount of action this week given all of the variables working in his favor.

Travis Kelce missed last week while on the COVID list but is all systems go for this important matchup against the Bengals. Kelce's one-week absence shouldn't disrupt his extreme presence in Kansas City's offense as he ranks 15th in the league in targets per game (8.7).

Mark Andrews is on an absolute tear. Over his past three games, Andrews has seen double-digit targets, caught at least eight passes, gone over 100 yards, and caught at least one touchdown in all three games. And he's done it while playing with three different Quarterbacks! Andrews is a solid play if you have the salary to make it work.

Team Defenses

The Patriots are 16.5 point home favorites against the 2-13 Jaguars and Jacksonville has the lowest Implied Team Total (12.75) of the week. New England's defense ranks third in overall DVOA.

The Buccaneers are 13 point favorites and the Jets have the seventh-lowest Implied Team Total (16.25) of the week.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

The Chiefs at Bengals has the second-highest Over/Under (51) of the week. Joe Burrow is sure to be popular in such an intriguing fantasy game after his record day last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes II, who ranks fifth in pass yards per game (287.3) and is tied for fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2), is an intriguing tournament play in the very same game. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have really only been pushed to succeed once in Kansas City's past eight games, a 34-28 overtime victory against the Chargers in Week 15 in which Mahomes threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns. The 9-6 Bengals project to push Mahomes in this one, especially with this game in Cincinnati.

Jalen Hurts has run for ten touchdowns and ranks 26th in the entire league in rush yards per game (52.9). A dual-threat weapon with scintillating upside, Hurts now gets to set his sights on a Washington defense that ranks 27th in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Hurts just destroyed this defense two weeks ago, throwing for 296 yards and a touchdown while adding 38 rush yards and two rush touchdowns.

Dak Prescott gets t