Photo: USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

5: Thursday Night 5X

Tom Brady MORE than 300.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts MORE than 280.5 passing yards
Mike Evans MORE than 74.5 receiving yards

-It is always hard to hit on three at one time but this is a strong correlation play and the opportunity to have some fun going for a 5X to start the week was hard to pass up. If this game is played five times, would it have big passing totals at least once? That is what my numbers say.

"I think they need a shootout. I think Jalen Hurts needs to throw for 400 yards and they hope for a couple turnovers from the Bucs."
@KyleBrandt thinks the #Eagles only path to a win tonight is through the QB pic.twitter.com/Twk6KC65Hz

— GMFB (@gmfb) October 14, 2021

-Tampa Bay’s defense is one of the most extreme pass funnels we have seen in recent years. Teams have almost given up trying to run the ball against this front seven that has allowed 19.0 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks.

-Meanwhile, the Dolphins led by Jacoby Brissett (275 passing yards) are the only team who has not passed for 300+ yards against this banged up secondary.

-Tom Brady has been on fire this season with three games of 379+ passing yards. He is averaging 353.4 passing yards per game.

At 44 years old, will @TomBrady win another MVP? 🐐

📺: #TBvsPHI – TONIGHT (8pm ET) on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO pic.twitter.com/fQlHT18Lmw

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) October 14, 2021

-Jalen Hurts is averaging 273 passing yards per game this season and this speedy young wide receiver corps has shown a knack for big plays. With three legitimate 4.4-speedsters to throw to, this offense is built to pick up yardage in chunks. If Hurts hits a couple of big chunk plays tonight, he should fly past 280.5 passing yards.

-Mike Evans has four straight games with 75+ receiving yards. While he could see Darius Slay in coverage against Philadelphia, the emergence of Antonio Brown as another WR1-level talent means Evans is unlikely to get shadowed by the Eagles' top corner.

4: Under in NYC

Matthew Stafford LESS than 306.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones LESS than 250.5 passing yards

• One of our key advantages to try to leverage is passing game correlation plays, given we know that it is more likely for both to go over or both to go under than it is for the two to split.
• On the surface, these numbers look attractive. Matthew Stafford is averaging 317.4 passing yards per game and Daniel Jones is averaging 256.4. However, there are a number of factors pointing towards both having below-average games on Sunday.
• It looks as if Jones will almost definitely clear concussion protocol but injuries around him limit his upside. Saquon Barkley, who has been one of Jones’ favorite targets of late, is out. It has been reported that Kenny Golladay is unlikely to play. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard each are trying to return from hamstring injuries and may be less than 100%.

Did not practice:
QB Daniel Jones (concussion)
RB Saquon Barkley (ankle)
WR Kenny Golladay (knee)
LT Andrew Thomas (foot)
OL Matt Skura (knee)

Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton Kadarius Toney, Logan Ryan, Ben Bredeson, Jabrill Peppers and Nate Ebner all limited.

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) October 13, 2021

• Matthew Stafford likely could throw for 300+ on this defense if he had to play aggressively. However, the Rams are favored by 10.5 points and facing the league’s 26th-ranked rush defense(DVOA). We should not expect another shootout like we saw when the Rams face the Buccaneers.

3: Betting on Youth

Khalil Herbert MORE than 35.5 rushing yards
Davante Adams MORE than 99.5 receiving yards

• While many expected Damien Williams to dominate the backfield touches for the Bears, rookie Khalil Herbert played 53% of the snaps and carried the ball 18 times for 75 yards.
• Expect Herbert to again be the lead rusher this week, which is not fully factored into this 35.5 prop. Herbert passed the eye test throughout the preseason and looked good in his first extended action. This looks like a situation where the rookie could see his piece of the pie grow while the 29-year old veteran (Williams) may see his role further reduced.

Damien Williams was the preferred back in negative and neutral situations for the Bears. Khalil Herbert finished the game out with 17-of-18 touches coming with a lead later in the game. pic.twitter.com/UJwaDcMttS

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 11, 2021

• The matchup is ideal for Herbert. The Packers defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the run.
• How can you bet against Davante Adams when he is playing this well and seeing such extreme volume? Over the last three weeks, Adams is averaging 15.0 targets per game. Over the last two seasons, Adams is averaging 9.3 yards per target. 99.5 is a big number but Adams is averaging well over 100 yards per game over the last two seasons (115.8 this season).
• If you take away a couple of the games where Adams came in at way less than 100% physically, he has had 100+ receiving yards in over half of his starts going back to 2019.

Most 100-yard rec games since start of 2019:

Games Played
Davante Adams 15 31
Stefon Diggs 13 36
Michael Thomas 12 23
DeAndre Hopkins 12 36@Cantguardmike pic.twitter.com/M1iws1hLUm

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 14, 2021

2: Fun Young Stars

DAndre Swift MORE than 16.5 fantasy points
JaMarr Chase MORE than 16.5 fantasy points

• The numbers support this as a positive correlation play with a solid chance of hitting 3X for us, as we will discuss below. However, above and beyond money, this is about having some fun and this just jumped off the page as the most fun prop of the week. These are two of the more exciting young skill position players in the entire NFL and will be fun to root for this weekend.
• D’Andre Swift has been a standout PPR performer this season. He is averaging 7.0 targets per game, a massive number for a running back. More importantly, he is averaging 1.67 fantasy points per target in his NFL career. Based on the per-target production and his season average for targets, we can project Swift for over 11 fantasy points just in the passing game.

Your top five running backs with the most High Value Touches (HVT = Touches inside the 10 yard line plus receptions metric via @YardsPerGretch).

D'Andre Swift - 36
Najee Harris - 34
Austin Ekeler - 31
Derrick Henry - 28
Cordarrelle Patterson - 27

— RyanHodge.eth ⚔️ (@RyanHodge) October 14, 2021

• Swift’s receiving usage is bankable and there is upside for even more. The Lions are simply running out of options. This was the league’s worst wide receiver corps coming into the season and have lost both of their starting outside wide receivers (Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephus) to injuries. The depth chart at outside wide receiver is Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, and Trinity Benson.
• The Bengals defense is much improved. However, in recent weeks we have seen this unit is not fully over its issues with stopping opposing running backs. In Week 4, James Robinson had 20.8 fantasy points. Last week, the Packers' top two running backs combined for 32.8 fantasy points.
• JaMarr Chase began his NFL career with a bang, catching four touchdown passes in his first three games.
• From a fantasy perspective, his last two games have been even more encouraging given his rise in usage. He has averaged 9.5 targets per game since Week 4. For a player who is averaging 13.0 yards per target and has a 20% touchdown rate, he can do a lot of damage on 9.5 targets.

Ja'Marr Chase: 37.1% of his targeted routes this year have been go routes. His YPR is an astounding 19.5.

His opponent this week the Lions have seen the highest rate of deep passes in the #NFL thus far.

6700 on DK. Lock him in! pic.twitter.com/JAg13dTtB4

— Brian Drake (@DrakeFantasy) October 14, 2021

• The matchup is enticing for Chase. The Lions have one of the weaker cornerback groups in the NFL and rank 27th in DVOA against the pass.

1: Bills-Titans Superstars

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns for Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs

• The most attractive aspect of this prop is the fact we start our quest towards a 4X return with Derrick Henry. He has scored more than 2.5 all by himself twice already this season.

Derrick Henry is currently on pace for:

- 2,176 rush yards (NFL record)
- 483 rush attempts (NFL record)
- 530 touches (NFL record)

Those numbers are WILD! #Titans pic.twitter.com/YW8GBefdtp

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) October 14, 2021

• Over his last 26 games, Henry has had 42 touchdowns. When you can build the prop around a player with a realistic projection of more than 1.0 touchdowns, you are off to a great start.
• It also does not hurt that we can look to take advantage of the fact this game has the second-highest total of the week (54) and has realistic shootout potential.
• Stefon Diggs is due for some positive touchdown regression. He has scored just once on 47 targets (2.1%). Coming into this season, his career touchdown rate was 5.4%.
• Like Diggs, A.J. Brown feels like he is due and is also likely to be in for some positive touchdown regression. He has one touchdown on 25 targets this season (4.0%). Coming into this season, Brown had 19 touchdown catches on just 190 targets (10.o%). He has been a standout touchdown producer throughout his career with 21 touchdowns in 34 career games (27 starts).

2020: A.J. Brown blows up in Week 5 after a disappointing start to the season during a primetime matchup at home against the Bills

2021: A.J. Brown blows up in Week 6 after a disappointing start to the season during a primetime matchup at home against the Bills

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 12, 2021

Week 5 Review

• Last Week: 0
• Season Total: (-5)

We had a couple of injury cancelations and a slow start but an easy Monday Night Football win got us to even.

• 5, Thursday TDs: (-1) We got a touchdown from Darrell Henderson but Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett did not add to our totals
• 4, Young passers: (-1) Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold both had off days throwing the ball, leading this correlation play to come in well under the passing yards needed.
• 3, WR1s: (0) This one got canceled when Calvin Ridley was unable to make the trip to London.
• 2, Florida matchup play: (0) This one ended up canceled as well with Devante Parker inactive. Tricky injury situations are one of the negatives about a Thursday morning article.
• 1, MNF low passing totals: (+2) We were all over this one. Both Carson Wentz (240.5) and Lamar Jackson (225.5) had passing props that were way too low. They threw for 402 and 442, respectively.