Waiting as long as possible to draft a quarterback has become en vogue in fantasy football. The trend is not without merit. There is ample evidence that the edge between a highly drafted quarterback and one drafted in the late rounds is a small enough difference that taking a quarterback early is rarely worth it. Even in superflex leagues, it is still a smart tactic to piece together two later-round quarterbacks to go with one drafted a little earlier. There is still immense value to be mined later in the draft – superflex or not.
The main issue with this strategy, however, is that it is easier said than done. What late-round quarterback drafters don’t think about in August that they’ll very much care about in November is that if they are wrong on their late-round quarterback shot, then they could have a guy who settles in as QB15 and fails to provide starter quality points. There is a way to mitigate the risk of being wrong or having a quarterback not meet expectations (usually due to injuries). The way to do that is to pair up two late-round quarterbacks that have complementary qualities.
A quarterback pairing is complementary when they can marry different strengths or qualities. This comes in the form of:
- Schedules that project to match up strength-wise
- Combining stability with upside
- Combining two players with elite potential coming off injury-riddled or statistical outlier seasons
To qualify as a late-round quarterback, the definition will be a player that can be selected roughly in the tenth round or later in most 12-team, 1-quarterback leagues. The best candidates are, therefore:
- Kirk Cousins
- Baker Mayfield
- Justin Fields
- Deshaun Watson
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Trey Lance
- Derek Carr
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Zach Wilson
- Sam Darnold
- Jameis Winston
A few have been omitted from this list because they don’t bring enough to the table in the form of upside, stability, or schedule strength to consider for this strategy.
So, like a sommelier in a fancy restaurant who can pair the wine with the main course, these quarterbacks can, and should, be paired up for maximum fantasy impact. Here are the choices.
High Stability
Quarterbacks in this category are some choices that give a fantasy team a solid floor. They should be paired with quarterbacks in either of the following categories: Big Upside Big Risk or Scheduled Help.
Kirk Cousins – Cousins is the gold standard for the late-round quarterback strategy. He can be drafted at the end of the 10th or beginning of the 11th round, and he brings stability to the roster. He has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in two of the last three seasons, and in the other one, he had 26. With rising star Justin Jefferson and red-zone threats Adam Thielen and Irv Smith, Cousins sets the pace for late-round quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield – Mayfield’s season wasn’t as bad as most people think. In the first half of the year, he was getting comfortable with the offense and dealing with some freak bad weather games. He became consistent and reliable over the last six games of the regular season, averaging two touchdowns per game and turning the ball over only one time. He looks like one of the more stable, if unexciting, options when waiting on a quarterback.
Derek Carr – He can be drafted into the 13th round, making him almost a free square in drafts. He accounted for 30 total touchdowns in 2020, and it’s fair to wonder if Carr isn’t completely disrespected. According to Pro Football Reference, he was 9th in the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt last season and 9th in On Target Throw percentage. He’s got two young receivers, a great tight end, and a bad defense that plays against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers four times. He should easily push for 30 touchdowns (17 games) and be a pivot if Mayfield or Cousins goes too early.
Ben Roethlisberger – It might feel weird to say the Pittsburgh veteran is stable, but the perception of the team’s nosedive at the end of the year has infected fantasy managers’ outlook on his prospects. He still threw for 33 touchdowns despite the offense's limitations, and now perhaps they will be a bit more of a threat to run the ball this year. However, the Steelers will still want to throw plenty, and that’s why he is listed as a stable option. In Roethlisberger’s last three healthy seasons, his team ranked 3rd, 1st, and 5th in pass attempts. He has one of the better wide receiver corps in the league, and most drafters completely eschew him.
Scheduled Help
Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins are doing everything they can to give him a shot to succeed. They upgraded their weapons by signing Will Fuller and drafting Jaylen Waddle, and they continue to work on the problematic offensive line. There is an argument to be made that he will finally be healthy coming into this year after his catastrophic injury in college. Beyond the helpful changes in personnel, Miami will also face a fairly friendly schedule, especially in the second half of the year. Games against the Jets (twice), Texans, and the Titans in Week 17 (some leagues’ Super Bowl week) make his prospects brighten even a bit further. He’s anything but a sure thing, but his 12th round price is palatable to see if he can make a second-year leap with the help he’s been given.
Sam Darnold – No quarterback improved their situation more than Darnold this offseason. He leaves a toxic situation with Adam Gase and lands with an offensively talented coaching staff and three strong offensive playmakers. The only question that remains is whether or not the improved situation is going to make Darnold relevant. The good news is that his ADP means he isn’t even being drafted at all in most leagues. Taking a chance on Darnold only requires a last-round draft choice.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – The only help Fitzpatrick needs is to remain the starter. Last year he scored 12 touchdowns in his six starts and only lost his job because the Dolphins wanted to know what they had in Tagovailoa. He goes to a situation with a strong defense that should let him relax and play within himself. His top two wide receivers and his running back room are also upgrades over what he worked with last season. Fitzpatrick could almost be considered for the Upside category, but either way, he should be a favorite late-round target.
Cam Newton, Trey Lance, Fitzpatrick – Overall look to be facing poor defenses for many games.
Mayfield, Tagovailoa – Second half schedules look promisingly weak
Cousins, Fields – First half schedules look particularly devoid of defensive stalwarts
Big Upside Big Risk
Trey Lance – Put aside the 49ers’ mouth-watering fantasy playoff schedule and instead think about the physical tools Lance has to be a fantasy monster. The crux of the late-round strategy is grabbing players with Lance’s upside. It might take some time before he sees the field, but that’s why he should be paired with a stable player from above.
Justin Fields – Fields likely hits the field before Lance does, but the argument is the same. His physical tools mean that he shouldn’t be left on the waiver wire, even in smaller leagues. Use the same strategy with Fields as with Lance.
Jameis Winston – Winston managed to land the job over Taysom Hill, and this instantly puts him on the late-round radar. Working with Sean Payton is easily Winston's best situation since he came into the league and could be the key to unlocking his immense physical talent. The presence of Hill near the goal line may always be a problem, but Winston has big potential in a Payton offense and should be considered with a late quarterback strategy.
The players in this category, “Big Upside Big Risk,” should be paired with those from the first two categories.
Avoid
Zach Wilson – If it seems like people are ignoring Wilson in their fantasy drafts, it’s because they are. But there is a good reason for that. He doesn’t possess the rushing upside of Lance or Fields, and his offensive situation is vastly more limited. He has mediocre skill-position weapons, and new Head Coach Robert Saleh is unlikely to suddenly be an offensive mastermind to push the rookie into fantasy relevance. Taking Wilson ignores all the hurdles he needs to overcome to be startable in 2021. Could it happen? Of course. Is it likely to happen? No. Don’t take Wilson when there are better options near or significantly after his ADP.
Deshaun Watson – It’s hard to say taking a chance on Watson in the 13th round is a mistake because the price is so low, but this doesn’t look like a situation that will clear up in Watson’s favor any time soon. He still faces multiple legal uncertainties, and he still wants to be traded. Drafting him now means dedicating a roster spot to a guy who could end up producing nothing for fantasy teams. Taking a chance on Lance, Fields, or Hill is a much better option at a much lower (or similar) price.
It is up to the individual drafting these players as to which one each person prefers. But to maximize potential fantasy points, the drafter should be combining the stable prospects with the upside players or those with good schedules. Pick one from the appropriate categories and let the season start to unfold. It isn’t necessary to carry two of them all year, but the guy to carry for the year will often be clear once the season takes shape. Giving a fantasy team two chances at a top quarterback is good game theory and doubles the chances that the late-round strategy pays off in the form of an elite producer.
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