Pick-a-Player: Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce

Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports

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Links to other Pick-a-Player discussions:

The premise of a Pick-a-Player question is as follows:

• Three comparable players are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted.
• You can take one of them or pass on all three for someone else.

Every few days, we ask a question of five groups of people -- the Footballguys staff, the active members of our Shark Pool message board, and the great people following our Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook pages. If you'd like to answer a future Pick-a-Player question, there will be more throughout July. Plus, there is a lot of other content on those pages as well. Follow us and/or join the Shark Pool, and you can take part in the great discussions happening every day.

Today's Pick-a-Player

It's the 1.05 pick in a PPR league. The players listed below are off the board. Would you select Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, or Travis Kelce? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting Lineup:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

Players Taken:

• Christian McCaffrey, Carolina
• Dalvin Cook, Minnesota
• Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
• Saquon Barkley, NY Giants

The Results

And the winner is -- Derrick Henry. And it wasn't very close. See the percentages below.

Comments from the Footballguys Staff

Phil Alexander

Kelce is tempting, but I'm taking Henry here. PPR scoring didn't stop Henry from finishing as the RB3 in 2020, and his outlook hasn't changed much heading into this season. It could even be argued the addition of Julio Jones will allow Henry to feast on lighter boxes and provide the Titans with additional offensive plays and short scoring opportunities.

Jeff Haseley

I have Jonathan Taylor as my No. 3 running back, but I wouldn't take him here. Give me Kelce here so I can dominate the tight end position.

Ryan Hester

I debated going off the board and selecting Ezekiel Elliott here, but for everything Elliott has going for him, Henry has the same. Elliott is the lead back in what should be a hyper-productive offense. But with Julio Jones in town now, Tennessee’s outlook is similar to Dallas’. Elliott is a goal-line monster, but we know Henry is too.

The only edge Elliott might have is in the receiving game, but Henry makes up for that with his ability to rip touchdown runs 70+ yards more frequently than anyone in the league. And Henry’s durability has been outstanding to this point, while the same can’t be said for Elliott.

Ryan Weisse

Kelce. Some fine running backs are available, but none of them will give you the positional advantage that Kelce will over just about every team in your league.

Jason Wood

Derrick Henry. I'd take Henry and Jonathan Taylor over Saquon Barkley, so I would be thrilled if the draft fell this way. As Phil noted, Henry's lack of receiving stats didn't keep him from being a top-three fantasy asset in PPR formats last year. He's the closest thing to a lock for 2,000 yards from scrimmage in the NFL. The only risk is Todd Downing replacing Arthur Smith as a play-caller, but it's a risk worth taking.

Jeff Tefertiller

Travis Kelce. The decided points-per-game advantage he gives you over all but two other players is enough to carry some weeks. Yes, Henry and Hill are stars. I would seek to address running back in Round 2. The receiver position is deep. Kelce is safe and still has a high week-to-week ceiling.

Andy Hicks

This early, I am taking Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry, in that order, before any receiver. So Elliott.

James Brimacombe

I am going Derrick Henry because of the scarcity of the bell cow running backs out there. Hill and Kelce are obviously the top choices at each of their positions, but it is hard to pass on a volume and touchdown guy like Henry at this spot.

Pat Fitzmaurice

Henry. It's counterintuitive to spend exquisite draft capital on a running back who's notably devalued by the PPR format. Yet, Henry's usage and talent are so prodigious that he's still an immensely valuable asset in PPR leagues. This is too early for Hill, and I'm not into taking Kelce this early because (1) there's a reasonable chance the big gap between Kelce and the rest of the tight end field shrinks this year, and (2) I hate spending the rest of the draft playing catch-up at running back and wide receiver after taking a tight end in the first round.

Chad Parsons

I would pass on all three in the mid-first. For Kelce, I would need a tight end premium, at least, to consider him this early. For Tyreek Hill, the middle-round value at wide receiver this year is immense, and I prefer high-end running backs in Round 1. As for Henry, there is a smaller window to end up as a high-end RB1 than other backs with his limited passing-game usage.

Jordan McNamara

I think Ryan's take on Elliott and Henry is fascinating. The thing that tilts me in favor of Elliott is the stability of the offense. The entire core is back with the same coaching staff intact, while Henry lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, one of the league's brightest minds. Elliott is also due for some positive touchdown regression, so I would take him.

Justin Howe

None of these guys have 1.05 value in a vacuum, but of course, we don't draft in a vacuum. Someone has to go here, and the initial temptation is for Kelce, who staffs a barren, nasty tight end position in a major way. Still, I almost always want to come out of Round 1 with a ball-dominant, bell cow RB1, so it's down to Henry and Ezekiel Elliott for me.

Henry sure seems to have big regression coming, in both touchdowns (47 over his last 47 games) and yardage (5.2 yards-per-carry). I always brace for slippage from wild numbers like those and would much rather be ahead of the curve and miss out on a guy like Henry than overdraft him. Besides, Henry doesn't fluff his numbers by catching the ball, and those guys are way behind the 8-ball in most formats. Elliott, on the other hand, has clear bounce-back potential as Dak Prescott returns to action. He's averaged 20.1 PPR points over their last 21 games together.

Select Comments from Facebook

Justin Young

I'll take Henry. He will probably regress, but the addition of Julio Jones should open up those running lanes some more, so I think the value is still there for him at 1.05.

Andrew Frost

I slightly favor the positional advantage at tight end with Kelce on perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL. Just how many touchdowns do we expect the Kansas City offense to score in 2021? We may not all be able to agree on an exact number, but I think we may all be able to agree that it will be a lot. All those touchdowns can't just go to Tyreek Hill, although I expect him to get his share. Finally, we all know that Derrick Henry's physique is atypical for a running back, but how much pounding can the human body take? After all, weren't we all saying much of the same things about Cam Newton's physique at the quarterback position before his shoulder injury. I'm just saying.

Ross Kempner

Pass on all three and take Elliot. If you’re taking Hill at 1.05, you’re gonna have to nail your mid-round picks at running back -- and that’s a dead zone -- so to me, that’s a failed strategy. No way you take Kelce over Elliot or Henry, so he’s out. It’s gotta be a running back, and to me, Elliott will have a healthy line and the same advantages as Henry with better wide receivers and quarterback.

Select Comments from Twitter

Snorkelson

Remember not that long ago when running backs with 400 touches reliably missed time the next year? I’ll take Kelce and outscored anyone who doesn’t have Waller by 100 points at the tight end position.

Ivan Salazar

The position advantage you get w Kelce is significant, and you can still get a great running back on the way back.

Alex Tacopina

Gotta be Henry. The depth at WR this year is crazy, and Henry is still the bell cow in Tennessee, even with Julio being added. Even with expected regression from 2K yards and 17 touchdowns from last year, Henry is WORTH it with the number of touches he’ll get.

Select Comments from The Shark Pook

farfromforgotten

I went with Henry. He’s still the straw that stirs the Titans' drink in Tennessee. The loss of Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis, who are good blockers at their respective positions, should be offset somewhat by the addition of Julio Jones helping spread things out on the perimeter.

I’d strongly consider Davante Adams here as I still believe that Rodgers will ultimately end up playing for the Packers this year, and that combo is pretty much unstoppable.

Gally

I voted Henry but was very close to going with "None of These" and leaning towards Aaron Jones. I think Jones will catch a lot of balls this year and be the focal point for the running back passing game, which boosts his production quite a bit. I eventually settled on Henry because I think he is the safer pick but with a slightly lower ceiling. With early picks, I like a higher floor/safer pick.

rzrback77

Derrick Henry is the obvious choice here. He is a workhorse, and despite not being used much in the passing game, he does have solid skills there. The Titans should continue to use Henry heavily in the run game, which is a great match with a solid run-blocking offensive line. Despite steadily increasing his rushing attempts in each of the last four seasons, he also increased his yards-per-carry up to 5.4 in 2020 when he had 378 attempts. His workload is even more impressive when you consider there were only two other running backs with over 250 attempts. The Titans' addition of Julio Jones this offseason combined with the talented A.J. Brown provides Ryan Tannehill with much more efficient receivers on the outside, giving Henry even better opportunities to run. Perhaps he will see fewer carries in 2021, but he should easily continue to lead the league and could be a bit more involved in the passing game, particularly with the change in offensive coordinators.

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