Dominate Your League
A Footballguys Premium Subscription will give you the edge with lineup and waiver wire advice tailored to your league.
Save Time, Win More with Footballguys.Join Now
Click here for QBs who will miss their dynasty cost in 2021.
One of the most exploitable inefficiencies in dynasty fantasy football is the difference between where players are selected in startup drafts and their 2021 projection. High-priced players are more long-term bets, so their 2021 projection is less significant than lower-priced players with much lower long-term hit rates. For the later picks, in particular, players projected to outscore their draft position should be targeted. Below are six quarterbacks we project to outproduce their dynasty draft position over the past 30 days.
Tom Brady (Dynasty ADP: QB21, Our 2021 Projection: QB5)
With a draft position of QB21 in dynasty drafts in the past month, Brady is recognized by the market as nearing the end of his prolific career. There is a gap between Brady and similarly situated Ben Roethlisberger (QB29), but the difference in their cost is reflected by their 2021 projection, with Brady projected at QB5 and Roethlisberger at QB21. Brady is the ultimate win-now player at cost and is likely the latest drafted player in superflex dynasty drafts with a two-wins-over-replacement season in his range of outcomes. Brady can be a win-now piece for a team drafting to win in year one or a contending team looking for a shot in the arm.
Recent trades involving Brady include:
- Tom Brady for Sam Darnold and a 2023 2nd
- Tom Brady for Kyle Trask, a 2022 2nd, and 2023 2nd
- Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson for Marcus Mariota and Parris Campbell
Derek Carr (Dynasty ADP: QB26, Our 2021 Projection: QB17)
Derek Carr has been a good pocket passer in his career, including leading the league in yards per attempt on non-play-action passes from a clean pocket in 2020 and finished 8th in yards per attempt overall. Carr should have a better set of weapons with an additional year of experience for Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards, along with the additions of Kenyan Drake and John Brown. Carr will be held back by passing game volume as we project him at 13th in passing attempts which falls in line with his rank of 14th in passing attempts in 2020. Carr has only one year left on his contract after 2021, and with rumors always present that Jon Gruden may look for a change at quarterback, Carr’s price has fallen. If Las Vegas moves on from Carr, he will get another opportunity to start, more in line with Matthew Stafford’s market desirability than Carson Wentz.
Continue reading this article with a Season Long Pro subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN