Some key items are below:
- All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Tweets of the Week
- Dome Sweet Dome
Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.
Tweets of the Week
Commentary and Action Items:
- JJ Zachariason noted that Elijah Moore's 34.8-percent Week 12 target share was his highest mark of the season thus far. While Zachariason adds that it is a "Zach Wilson tweet," it may serve better as an Elijah Moore tweet with added Zach Wilson context. Elijah Moore's four games preceding Week 12 were his best four games of the season, as he averaged over 21 DraftKings points per game. However, this four-game stretch coincided with a stretch of games that Zach Wilson missed out on due to injury. Many worried that Moore's lack of production outside of the last month may have been due to Zach Wilson's propensity to target areas of the field that Elijah Moore either does not work in or that he works in inefficiently. However, last week's massive target share should quell any worries about Wilson's return damaging Elijah Moore's fantasy value. Moore is playing more snaps now than ever in New York's offense, playing over 80-percent of the Jets' offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks for the first time all season in Weeks 11 and 12. Expect the Jets' rookie wide receiver to be a major factor down the stretch this season as a startable option in season-long formats and a high-volume player worth considering in DraftKings contests of all formats over the last six weeks of the 2021 regular season.
Week 12 BAL receivers vs CLE— Josh Larky â†—ï¸ (@jlarkytweets) December 1, 2021
Brown - 26 routes, 10 tgt, 8-51-0 (68 air yards)
Andrews - 27 routes, 10 tgt, 4-65-1 (106 air)
Bateman - 18 routes, 4 tgt, 4-31-0 (25 air)
Watkins - 15 routes, 1 tgt, 1-8-0 (8 air)
Duvernay - 14 routes, 2 tgt, 1-2-0 (2 air)
On to BUF â¬‡ï¸â¬‡ï¸ pic.twitter.com/lQfgbxMNCW
Commentary and Action Items:
- Weeks ago, when rookie Rashod Bateman entered the fold as Baltimore's potential number-two wide receiver after an injury kept him out for the first five games of the season, it appeared that he might eat into the receiving numbers for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. As the team's top two pass-catchers over the last two seasons, Brown and Andrews had the most to lose if a strong option emerged elsewhere in the Ravens' passing attack. However, as Josh Larky pointed out on Twitter this week, six games later, Brown and Andrews remain the top dogs on the outside for the team. Bateman, unfortunately, has been unable to provide significant fantasy value due to the amount of competition he faces in his role. Both Sammy Watkins and Devin Duvernay continue to earn reps alongside Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, and their fantasy value remains largely unchanged. While this is bearish news for Bateman's 2021 fantasy value, Marquise Brown's unchanged role in the team's aerial attack with Bateman in the fold is exceptionally bullish news for his fantasy stock down the stretch this year. Over the last four games, Brown has commanded an average of 12.25 targets per game for the Ravens. In the previous two weeks, Brown has been unable to convert this volume directly into fantasy production. Brown should be viewed as a no-brainer starting option in season-long fantasy leagues for the rest of the season and a top-tier option in DFS contests despite this recent underperformance. At tight end, Mark Andrews, who has commanded 9.5 targets per game over that same 4-game stretch, is also a no-brainer starter in season-long and one of the best options in the player pool at tight end in DFS. Unfortunately, Rashod Bateman is unlikely to provide much value down the stretch in season-long formats, barring injury elsewhere. Additionally, Bateman should only be considered a longshot option in Baltimore GPP stacks, including Lamar Jackson and either Brown or Andrews.
Since Washington's Week 9 bye, Antonio Gibson is averaging 27.0 touches, 106.3 YFS, and 17.6 FPG— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 2, 2021
Pretty insane given the injury he's been playing with (since Week 4)https://t.co/8RlSXCwO88 pic.twitter.com/jokOFJRU5e
Commentary and Action Items:
- Scott Barrett noted above Antonio Gibson's usage has been remarkable since Washington's bye four weeks ago. Monday night's matchup against the Seattle Seahawks was Gibson's highest usage game of the season-- he set season-highs in percent of snaps played (68-percent), carries (29), targets (7), and receptions (7) in the victory. In college, Gibson was primarily a wide receiver, playing sparingly out of the backfield. Then, as a rookie last season, Gibson topped out at 20 carries and 65-percent of offensive snaps in a game. Now, the electric ball-carrier is approaching bell-cow status in Washington's backfield, especially if J.D. McKissic misses time due to the head injury he sustained last week. Down the stretch this season, Gibson should be considered a strong number two running back in season-long formats and a strong DFS option in contests of all formats. In Week 13, Gibson costs just $5,700 on DraftKings, and he should be considered one of the best running back options in the player pool at such an affordable mark.
Dome Sweet Dome
Overall, offensive efficiency increases substantially in games played inside a dome. Studies show that scoring in games played inside a dome is between three to four points higher than games played outdoors. The driving force behind this scoring increase is the impact domes have on passing game efficiency. Quarterbacks across the league perform better inside domes for one main reason: the weather does not impact the playing conditions. This is exacerbated in winter months, when cold temperatures, strong winds, and potential snow can have a massive negative impact on passing attacks in games played outdoors. On the other hand, no matter how bad the weather is in Detroit in December, the Lions will always play their home games in 70-degree temperatures, with no wind or precipitation inside the dome of Ford Field.
Focusing on passing attacks with a high volume of dome games during the final two months of the season should pay dividends, as their playing conditions will be much more stable, predictable, and, most importantly, favorable.
High Dome-Game Counts:
5 dome-games remaining
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Arizona Cardinals
4 dome-games remaining
- New Orleans Saints
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Indianapolis Colts
- Minnesota Vikings
- Tennessee Titans
- Houston Texans
- Detroit Lions
Commentary and Action Items:
- Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams have struggled a bit through the air in recent weeks. Stafford has been held under 16.0 DraftKings points in two out of his last three outings, with an unexpected garbage-time-aided performance last weekend against the Green Bay Packers that salvaged his game logs. Stafford's recent struggles can partially be attributed to the loss of Robert Woods on the outside, who was lost to a season-ending ACL injury in practice leading up to the team's Week 10 matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Odell Beckham Jr will try to fill the Robert Woods-sized hole in this passing attack, but the two are vastly different players. It may take time for Sean McVay to redesign his offense to maximize Beckham's unique skill set, but the Rams' late-season schedule loaded with games played inside should help this cause. The price of the Rams' offense stock may never be low, but this might be the lowest it will ever be. Buy (comparatively) low on the Los Angeles Rams' passing attack by targeting Matthew Stafford and Odell Beckham Jr in season-long trade discussions, while targeting both players and Cooper Kupp in DFS contests of all formats down the stretch. This offense should continually improve as chemistry develops over time in favorable playing environments. Odell Beckham Jr is priced at just $5,500 in the DraftKings player pool, and he warrants serious consideration as a cash-game and GPP target in Week 13-- at home and in a dome-- against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Dalvin Cook went down with a shoulder injury last week for the Minnesota Vikings, which will force Alexander Mattison into the starting role for the side once again. Minnesota typically deploys a run-heavy offensive attack, as the team tries to get the ball into the hands of its play-making running back as often as possible. With Mattison in the fold, the Vikings should lean more heavily upon their aerial attack, which features one of the league's best pass-catching duos. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen are poised erupt down the stretch this season due to both the expected increase in passing volume and the favorable playing environments that a quartet of dome games will provide. Jefferson and Thielen are already top-end fantasy producers, and are likely untouchable in season-long trade discussions. However, if Kirk Cousins is available, he is worth acquiring as a low-cost and high-upside quarterback option. In DFS contests, Jefferson and Thielen are prime candidates to outperform top-end price tags, making the Minnesota Vikings an elite passing offense to stack in GPPs during the final weeks of the 2021 season.