Cracking FanDuel Week 18

Sunday MORNING UPDATE:

I just wanted to send a quick thank you to everyone who has followed along this season and subscribes to Footballguys. This article will continue throughout the conference championship games.

With that said, big updates this morning. Week 18 has turned into a complete dumpster fire as expected.

• Davis Webb will start for the Giants at quarterback while the team will also rest Saquon Barkley. This is majorly concerning regarding Jalen Hurts and his outlook for this game as with Hurts dealing with a shoulder injury will the Giants be able to do enough to keep
• Gus Edwards to start for Baltimore as JK Dobbins will rest heading into their playoff game next week.
• Anthony Brown could start for Baltimore as Tyler Huntley is dealing with shoulder and wrist injuries. This would be significant as it would indicate that Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play next week. This may hurt Joe Burrow as Anthony Brown has looked about what you expect from an undrafted rookie in his very very limited game time this season and in the preseason.

The internal debate I'm having at the moment is surrounding Jalen Hurts and re-looking at Josh Allen. We just have no idea how good or bad Davis Webb is, but the thinking here is that he has been in the NFL since 2017, has never made a start, and was cut by the Giants after using a third round pick in his rookie season. While he was on the Bills from 2019-2021, he was the third-string guy behind Mitchell Trubisky who we have all seen this season and the struggles he's had. The problem with Webb is that if he is completely incompetent, then Hurts is not going to reach value and certainly stacking Hurts with AJ Brown.

The way I want to go about this for this week is keeping Miles Sanders, but moving off of Hurts/Brown and onto Allen/Diggs. Yes, there are concerns with Allen's elbow, but this is an emotional game for the Bills and one that I think they come out and do enough to reach value.

Primary Cash Lineup- Total Projected Points- 121.7

• QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
• RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,500
• RB Jonathan Williams, WAS, $5,000
• WR, JaMarr Chase, CIN, $8,500
• WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,400
• WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $5,100
• Flex RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,700
• TD Minnesota Vikings, $3,700

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Philadelphia (vs NYG) – 29.25 points
• San Francisco (vs ARI) – 26.75 points
• Buffalo (vs NE) – 25.5 points
• Minnesota (at CHI) – 24.5 points

Week 17 Recap

Week 17 was arguably the low point of this article and the most disappointing week of the season. In what ended up being one of the lowest scoring weeks in recent memory, the quarterback position was a killer. The analysis was correct, particularly at the quarterback position as Tom Brady ended up as the clear cut number one quarterback on this slate while the running backs of Ken Walker, Tyler Allgeier and Brian Robinson should have been good enough to win on a low scoring week. Instead, I suckered myself into the group think of the Jared Goff/Teddy Bridgewater would be the safer plays.

What’s interesting is even with some massive mistakes (Kelce, Jefferson, Bridgewater), this lineup finished only 6 points behind the cash line for FanDuel this week.

Congrats to those that followed the rankings and went with Tom Brady. We had multiple people who won $10,000 or more last week as the GPP and Cash Plus lineups were great or they created their own version with Evans instead of Godwin.

Total points scored- 75.14 points

• QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIA, $6,100- 10.0
• RB Ken Walker III, SEA, $6,700- 14.7
• RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,700- 16.0
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,200- 2.0
• WR Allen Lazard, GB, $6,200- 8.4
• WR Tyler Lockett, SEA $6,000- 2.5
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,300- 7.8
• Flex RB Brian Robinson Jr/a>, WAS, $6,900
• TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,900- 5.0

What went right:

• Ken Walker and Tyler Allgeier were the lone bright spots on this team.

What went wrong:

• Justin Jefferson was a disaster. This one is tough because it is now twice that the Vikings have simply not shown up when Justin Jefferson is in the
• It’s easy to blame Teddy Bridgewater, as he got injured and finished 12 points behind Jared Goff. If he would have played the full game, it’s reasonable to think he could have reached value as the Dolphins would likely have to be throwing for the majority of the remainder of the game.
• Travis Kelce is a tough one as he now has not scored a touchdown in five consecutive games and finishing with just 7.8 FanDuel points.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

• Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater will both miss this week leaving Skyler Thompson starting for the Dolphins. This is a complete stay away this week and likely avoiding players such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in this game as well.
• The Buccaneers may rest some of their players this week now that they have clinched a playoff position and have nothing to play for. In a cash game setting, having players sit for even a quarter is absolutely brutal, so this may be another stay away and just write them completely off on this slate.
• Joe Flacco will start for the Jets this week as Mike White reportedly has 5 broken ribs. Flacco is interesting as he is averaging 300 yards passing in his three starts this season.
• The Commanders are turning to their backups in this game as Sam Howell will get the start at quarterback. At the running back position Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson will both miss this week leaving a combination of Jonathan Williams and Jaret Patterson for the Commanders who was signed off of the practice squad. This is a scenario where there could be some value particularly with Williams as the Commanders are going to want to do everything they can to give Howell a decent opportunity to show what he can do. Going with a veteran in Williams who is a better receiver than Patterson is something that should be strongly looked at.
• Lamar Jackson will miss this week with a knee injury and Tyler Huntley will once again start for the Ravens. Huntley has struggled passing filling in for Jackson and is not a cash game play this week. The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in each of their last five games, so this is likely a complete stay away this week.
• Justin Fields will miss this week for the Bears with a shoulder injury. Nathan Peterman will get the start, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the Bears lineup will approach this week. David Montgomery could see less than a full workload as he is a pending free agent, the team could try to throw the ball more in a favorable passing matchup with Velus Jones or Chase Claypool who they’ve spent significant draft capital on. Either way, this is likely an avoid situation for the Bears.
• Nick Foles will miss this week for the Colts with a rib injury as Sam Ehlinger will get the start. Ehlinger has struggled in his two starts and the passing game for the Colts is likely a stay away this week.
• David Blough will start for Arizona this week which while not
• James Conner will miss this week which leaves a combination of Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement this week as the lone running backs in Arizona. This is likely a stay away situation he likely won’t surpass Conner in touches, so 12-14 touches is reasonable. At $5,700, it is a decent price, but not something to go crazy over.
• Saquon Barkley could sit, which we’re still waiting for word on what the Giants are going to do. If he does sit, Matt Breida could become a top play this week.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 18- Avoid Overcomplication

People look at Week 18 and often get scared of it based on the difficulty and the uncertainty that comes with it. While some of that may be true, approaching this week in cash game formats is relatively simple, as you can very easily just completely avoid uncertain situations and focus your lineup building process of more certain situations.

This is a week where you really don’t need to get cute. Just take players who are going to get targets and we have seen the production even if it is just over the last couple of weeks. The only exception to this is if there is such an extreme value such as Jonathan Williams that essentially is a free square with how many people are going to play him for the cost savings.

Avoid:

• Miami
• Chicago
• Tampa Bay
• Indianapolis Passing Offense
• Baltimore
• Washington Passing Offense
• Arizona Rushing Offense

Player Chart

Lineups

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.6)

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $9,000
• RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,500
• RB Jonathan Williams, WAS, $5,000
• WR, JaMarr Chase, CIN, $8,500
• WR AJ Brown, PHI, $8,300
• WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,200
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $5,100
• Flex RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,700
• TD Minnesota Vikings, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.5)

• QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $9,000
• RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,500
• RB Jonathan Williams, WAS, $5,000
• WR Justin Jefferson, $9,000
• WR AJ Brown, PHI, $8,300
• WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN, $6,600
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $5,100
• Flex RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,700
• TD Minnesota Vikings, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 115.4)

• QB Joe Burrow, CIN, $8,200
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,700
• RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,500
• WR, JaMarr Chase, CIN, $8,500
• WR AJ Brown, PHI, $8,300
• WR Greg Dortch, ARI, $5,400
• TE Trey McBride, ARI, $5,100
• Flex RB Cam Akers, LAR $7,300
• TD Minnesota Vikings, $3,700

Player Chart