Cracking FanDuel Week 18

Devin Knotts's Cracking FanDuel Week 18 Devin Knotts Published 01/07/2023

Sunday MORNING UPDATE:

I just wanted to send a quick thank you to everyone who has followed along this season and subscribes to Footballguys. This article will continue throughout the conference championship games.

With that said, big updates this morning. Week 18 has turned into a complete dumpster fire as expected.

  • Davis Webb will start for the Giants at quarterback while the team will also rest Saquon Barkley. This is majorly concerning regarding Jalen Hurts and his outlook for this game as with Hurts dealing with a shoulder injury will the Giants be able to do enough to keep
  • Gus Edwards to start for Baltimore as JK Dobbins will rest heading into their playoff game next week.
  • Anthony Brown could start for Baltimore as Tyler Huntley is dealing with shoulder and wrist injuries. This would be significant as it would indicate that Lamar Jackson is unlikely to play next week. This may hurt Joe Burrow as Anthony Brown has looked about what you expect from an undrafted rookie in his very very limited game time this season and in the preseason.

The internal debate I'm having at the moment is surrounding Jalen Hurts and re-looking at Josh Allen. We just have no idea how good or bad Davis Webb is, but the thinking here is that he has been in the NFL since 2017, has never made a start, and was cut by the Giants after using a third round pick in his rookie season. While he was on the Bills from 2019-2021, he was the third-string guy behind Mitchell Trubisky who we have all seen this season and the struggles he's had. The problem with Webb is that if he is completely incompetent, then Hurts is not going to reach value and certainly stacking Hurts with AJ Brown.

The way I want to go about this for this week is keeping Miles Sanders, but moving off of Hurts/Brown and onto Allen/Diggs. Yes, there are concerns with Allen's elbow, but this is an emotional game for the Bills and one that I think they come out and do enough to reach value.

Primary Cash Lineup- Total Projected Points- 121.7

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

    • Philadelphia (vs NYG) – 29.25 points
    • San Francisco (vs ARI) – 26.75 points
    • Buffalo (vs NE) – 25.5 points
    • Minnesota (at CHI) – 24.5 points

Week 17 Recap

Week 17 was arguably the low point of this article and the most disappointing week of the season. In what ended up being one of the lowest scoring weeks in recent memory, the quarterback position was a killer. The analysis was correct, particularly at the quarterback position as Tom Brady ended up as the clear cut number one quarterback on this slate while the running backs of Ken Walker, Tyler Allgeier and Brian Robinson should have been good enough to win on a low scoring week. Instead, I suckered myself into the group think of the Jared Goff/Teddy Bridgewater would be the safer plays.

What’s interesting is even with some massive mistakes (Kelce, Jefferson, Bridgewater), this lineup finished only 6 points behind the cash line for FanDuel this week.

Congrats to those that followed the rankings and went with Tom Brady. We had multiple people who won $10,000 or more last week as the GPP and Cash Plus lineups were great or they created their own version with Evans instead of Godwin.

Total points scored- 75.14 points

What went right:

  • Ken Walker and Tyler Allgeier were the lone bright spots on this team.

What went wrong:

  • Justin Jefferson was a disaster. This one is tough because it is now twice that the Vikings have simply not shown up when Justin Jefferson is in the
  • It’s easy to blame Teddy Bridgewater, as he got injured and finished 12 points behind Jared Goff. If he would have played the full game, it’s reasonable to think he could have reached value as the Dolphins would likely have to be throwing for the majority of the remainder of the game.
  • Travis Kelce is a tough one as he now has not scored a touchdown in five consecutive games and finishing with just 7.8 FanDuel points.

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Injuries Create Opportunity:

  • Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater will both miss this week leaving Skyler Thompson starting for the Dolphins. This is a complete stay away this week and likely avoiding players such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in this game as well.
  • The Buccaneers may rest some of their players this week now that they have clinched a playoff position and have nothing to play for. In a cash game setting, having players sit for even a quarter is absolutely brutal, so this may be another stay away and just write them completely off on this slate.
  • Joe Flacco will start for the Jets this week as Mike White reportedly has 5 broken ribs. Flacco is interesting as he is averaging 300 yards passing in his three starts this season.
  • The Commanders are turning to their backups in this game as Sam Howell will get the start at quarterback. At the running back position Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson will both miss this week leaving a combination of Jonathan Williams and Jaret Patterson for the Commanders who was signed off of the practice squad. This is a scenario where there could be some value particularly with Williams as the Commanders are going to want to do everything they can to give Howell a decent opportunity to show what he can do. Going with a veteran in Williams who is a better receiver than Patterson is something that should be strongly looked at.
  • Lamar Jackson will miss this week with a knee injury and Tyler Huntley will once again start for the Ravens. Huntley has struggled passing filling in for Jackson and is not a cash game play this week. The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in each of their last five games, so this is likely a complete stay away this week.
  • Justin Fields will miss this week for the Bears with a shoulder injury. Nathan Peterman will get the start, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the Bears lineup will approach this week. David Montgomery could see less than a full workload as he is a pending free agent, the team could try to throw the ball more in a favorable passing matchup with Velus Jones or Chase Claypool who they’ve spent significant draft capital on. Either way, this is likely an avoid situation for the Bears.
  • Nick Foles will miss this week for the Colts with a rib injury as Sam Ehlinger will get the start. Ehlinger has struggled in his two starts and the passing game for the Colts is likely a stay away this week.
  • David Blough will start for Arizona this week which while not
  • James Conner will miss this week which leaves a combination of Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement this week as the lone running backs in Arizona. This is likely a stay away situation he likely won’t surpass Conner in touches, so 12-14 touches is reasonable. At $5,700, it is a decent price, but not something to go crazy over.
  • Saquon Barkley could sit, which we’re still waiting for word on what the Giants are going to do. If he does sit, Matt Breida could become a top play this week.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 18- Avoid Overcomplication

People look at Week 18 and often get scared of it based on the difficulty and the uncertainty that comes with it. While some of that may be true, approaching this week in cash game formats is relatively simple, as you can very easily just completely avoid uncertain situations and focus your lineup building process of more certain situations.

This is a week where you really don’t need to get cute. Just take players who are going to get targets and we have seen the production even if it is just over the last couple of weeks. The only exception to this is if there is such an extreme value such as Jonathan Williams that essentially is a free square with how many people are going to play him for the cost savings.

Avoid:

  • Miami
  • Chicago
  • Tampa Bay
  • Indianapolis Passing Offense
  • Baltimore
  • Washington Passing Offense
  • Arizona Rushing Offense

Player Chart

Quarterback
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Jalen Hurts 25.3 $9,000 What you're going to see this week is that saving salary is not going to be all that difficult, so paying up for a player such as Hurts is highly encouraged. The difference between Josh Allen and Hurts is somewhat close, but the concern for Allen is that he has not been the same player that he had been pre-elbow injury. With Hurts, he has shown an ability whether it is on the ground or through the air that he is more consistent than Allen this season. Hurts has 29.8 or more FanDuel points in each of his last four games and that includes games in which he has thrown for 315 yards or more twice and under 200 yards once in which he dominated rushing.
2 Joe Burrow 21.3 $8,200 The only question for Burrow and the Bengals is whether the Ravens can pose enough of an offensive threat to force the Bengals into throwing the ball. Burrow has dominated the Ravens throughout his career as he has thrown for over 400-yards in three of his last four performances against the Ravens. He did struggle earlier this season in a 19-17 loss against Baltimore when the Bengals offense got off to a slow start this season.
3 Joe Flacco 14.3 $6,200 Joe Flacco in his three starts this season is averaging 300 yards passing per game and is taking on a Miami Dolphins defense that are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. He makes for a great play if you wanted to build a lineup with Christian McCaffrey at his exhorbinant $10,000 salary.
Running Back
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Miles Sanders 14.1 $6,700 With the Eagles in a must-win game against a Giants team that has nothing to play for, look for Sanders to play a significant role this week. Sanders shredded this defense in their earlier matchup this season as he ran for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Giants have had issues at the linebacker position all season, and with them potentially resting their starters for a portion of this game, if they rest Micah McFadden and Jaylon Smith, they'll need to play Carter Coughlin and Landon Collins. This is a team that is already without outside lineacker Azeez Ojulari, and Leonard Williams and is facing the best offensive line in football. Sanders is also reportedly best friends with Damar Hamlin, so there may be some additional motivation heading into this week to have a big game for his friend.
2 Jonathan Williams 11.6 $5,000 With Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson out this week, Jonathan Williams is expected to see a majority of the work with Jaret Patterson backing him up. Now, that is what is supposed to happen and there is a bit of risk here in Week 18, that Patterson who is 5 years younger than Williams could end up getting more time than originally thought, but as of now it appears that Williams will be the guy. Williams is the better receiver and pass blocker of the two backs, so it makes sense that he would get the volume as the Commanders are doing everything they can to give Sam Howell a proper evaluation game here in Week 18.
3 Cam Akers 12.7 $7,300 Cam Akers has had a tumultuous season, but is ending it with potentially solidifying himself as the Rams number one running back for next season. Akers has been great the last two weeks as he has 118 yards rushing and 123 yards over the last two games. What's noticeable is the volume that the Rams are committing to their rushing attack as Akers is averaging 21 carries over his last two games compared to just 12 in his prior two games. Even in a 31-10 loss last week, the Rams committed to the run with 19 carries. This week, Akers faces one of the worst run defenses in the NFL as he gets to face a Seahawks team who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and have been completely decimated by injuries.
4 Najee Harris 13.3 $7,200 Najee Harris has been a big reason the Steelers even have an outside chance at a playoff spot as he has carried the team over the last three weeks with a staggering 23.3 touches per game over the last three weeks. During that time Harris has 86 yards or more in each of those games two of which being in difficult matchups against the Ravens and Panthers who both boast excellent run defenses. This week, Harris gets to face the Browns who are a complete mess defensively. Jadeveon Clowney has essentially quit the team and will not play this week, the Browns are without their top four linebackers and it seems all but likely that Joe Woods will be fired after this week's game.
5 Tyler Allgeier 12.2 $6,500 Tyler Allgeier has been impressive and may have solved one of the needs for the Falcons as the 5th round rookie has averaged 18.3 carries for 98.7 yards over his last three games. This week, the Falcons are favored against a Buccaneers team that does not have much to play for and may partially rest their starters throughout the game. If there is one drawback against Allgeier it is his lack of presence in the passing game as he has just 7 catches over his last 6 games.
Wide Receiver
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 JaMarr Chase 15.2 $8,500 After last week's cancellation, the Bengals are in essentially a must win game or they will go to a coin flip in order to determine whether they will get a first-round home playoff game. This is a Bengals team that has as much fire power as any team in the NFL, and are going to test the Ravens secondary this week especially with corner Marcus Peters questionable for this game. The Ravens secondary is one that has been good enough against average teams, but have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL when it comes to opposing quarterbacks especially lately as they've faced the likes of Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Deshaun Watson in bad weather, Mitchell Trubisky, and Russell Wilson. This is a defense that has allowed over 300-yards to Trevor Lawrence, Tom Brady, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, and Joe Flacco this season.
2 AJ Brown 14.2 $8,300 It seems reasonable to think that the Eagles are going to take a conservative approach with Jalen Hurts' shoulder assuming that he is playing this week. That likely means that he will not take on a significant rushing role that we've seen in past weeks and instead try to beat the Giants defense through the air especially if the Giants are resting some of their starters. Brown has been tremendous this season, but has turned it up to another level as of late as he has a touchdown and or 100-yards in six consecutive games and in Jalen Hurts' last game he saw 16 targets. At $8,300, Brown is expensive, but his recent trend suggests that his floor maybe higher than some of the other more volatile players in that price range.
6 Stefon Diggs 15.7 $8,400 Diggs is going to be somewhat popular based on the projections across the board, but this is one that I'm honestly just worried about Josh Allen's elbow and the volatility that is created based on that injury and him being less than 100%. Over the last three weeks, Diggs has not topped 60 yards, and he has not topped 100-yards in each of his last six games. Diggs has not topped 100-yards against the Patriots in each of his last four games against New England. This is a scenario where at $8,400, his price is just too high.
4 DK Metcalf 12.1 $7,200 DK Metcalf seems to be too cheap this week at just $7,200. Metcalf has 8 or more targets in six straight games prior to last week, and has 55 yards or more in each of those games. Metcalf torched the Rams back in Week 13 as he had one of his best games of the season with 8 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks need to win this game in order to have a chance at the playoffs as they will need to win and then have the Lions beat the Packers on Sunday Night.
5 Greg Dortch 9.1 $5,400 Greg Dortch is a guy who is a value at $5,400 that has seen tremendous volume over the last three weeks. Over the last three weeks, Dortch has seen 10 or more targets in each of those games and while last week was disappointing, in his two prior games he had 95 yards or more in each of those contests. If you need a wide receiver who is cheap, Dortch could be the player you could look towards to provide salary relief this week.
6 Justin Jefferson 16.1 $9,000 If you've read this article this season, you'll know that I seemingly never get Justin Jefferson correct as he is my one player that for whatever reason I can't figure out. Having him at 6 this week is a risk, but the thinking here is that while the matchup is fantastic, how much of a floor does he really have in a game in which the Vikings should be in control from the start. This is a game in which the Vikings could have wrapped up by half-time and you're seeing Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison run the ball throughout the second-half with how bad Nathan Peterman and this Bears offense has been as of late. Jefferson is a tremendous GPP play as he tore apart this Bears offense with 12 receptions for 154 yards earlier this season.
7 Jerry Jeudy 11.5 $6,600 If you're looking at Jerry Jeudy, it's because you're looking at a spot where he just fits into your lineup, as it's important to have targets in each of the different price ranges and Jeudy could be a player that you could settle on and be completely happy about it. While the Broncos have been extremely disappointing this season, Jeudy has been a bright spot especially the last four weeks as he has averaged 7 receptions and topped 70 yards in three of his last four games. For FanDuel if you can get a player who is averaging close to 2x value without relying on touchdowns that is ideal as then a touchdown just is extra value.
Tight End
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Trey McBride 6.2 $5,100 The Cardinals are in talent evaluation mode as they approach the end of what can only be described as a disappointing season. Trey McBride is a second-round rookie who had a breakout game with David Blough last week has he was targeted 10 times catching 7 of those passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals are without James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins this week which could mean that the team designs plays for the talented tight end to continue to develop him as a receiver.
2 Dallas Goedert 9.3 $6,200 Dallas Goedert should see a boost with Jalen Hurts coming back at quarterback as Goedert had just 9 total targets in Minshew's two starts this season. Hurts and Goedert have shown that they are much more in synch as Goedert has six or more targets in six of his eight games with Hurts this season. Goedert is a unique player in that he is a more downfield tight end, so while he may not have some of the eye-popping target numbers that a TJ Hockenson has, he is averaging 13.4 yards per reception compared to Hockenson's 10.6.
Team Defense
Rank Player FBG Projection Salary Comment
1 Minnesota 10.6 $3,700 History has told us any time you can target Nathan Peterman in DFS, you probably should do that. Peterman has 13 career interceptions compared to just 3 touchdowns, and is dealing with a wide receiver group that is as bad as he has ever had as Velus Jones, Chase Claypool and Byron Pringle will be the top receivers for the Bears this week. The Vikings passing defense is not great, but they still have Patrick Peterson on the team who is playing at a Pro Bowl level. They are the clear cut cash game defense this week.

Lineups

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.6)

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.5)

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 115.4)

Player Chart

Primary Cash Game Play
Secondary Cash Game Play
Player Position Salary Projected Points H-Value Point/$
J. Hurts
QB 9000 25.3 59.6 2.8
J. Allen
QB 8800 24.6 58.1 2.8
J. Burrow
QB 8200 21.3 48.8 2.6
K. Cousins
QB 7700 15.6 30.4 2.0
D. Prescott
QB 7500 18.0 39.6 2.4
J. Herbert
QB 7500 16.5 34.1 2.2
G. Smith
QB 7300 18.1 41.2 2.5
J. Goff
QB 7200 Photos provided by Imagn Images

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