Monday Showdown Week 13

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options, and in MME contests, there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

Game Strategy

The Buccaneers are 3.5-point home favorites and are currently the leaders of the AFC South with just a 5-6 record. Meanwhile, the Saints currently sit in in last place with a 4-8 record. The lean here is a Buccaneers win at home with Tom Brady righting the ship, but balanced lineups are absolutely in play.

INJURY REPORT

• Buccaneers LT Tristan Wirfs OUT
• Leonard Fournette Questionable
• Russell Gage Questionable
• Cameron Brate Questionable
• Marshon Lattimore Questionable

Captain Consideration:

1. Tom Brady
2. Chris Godwin
3. Mike Evans
4. Alvin Kamara

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady - Captain/Flex

Tom Brady ranks seventh in passing yards per game (277.4) but just 21st in pass touchdowns per game (1.3). He's still producing but just hasn't thrown as many touchdowns as we've come to expect in Tampa Bay. That could change on Monday night though, because the Buccaneers offense ranks seventh in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Brady gets to play at home and has a great matchup here against a Saints defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed, 20th in Success Rate, and 29th Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Chris Godwin - Captain/Flex

Chris Godwin ranks eighth in targets per game (9.6), eighth in receptions per game (6.7), and 22nd in receiving yards per game (65) and coming off Tamps Bay's bye last week, Godwin showed he's healthier now than he was earlier in the season coming off the torn ACL. Godwin has his best game of the season in Week 12, catching 12 of 13 targets for 110 yards and 1 touchdown. Godwin is a must play at home against a Saints defense that only ranks 24th in EPA/Play Allowed, 20th in Success Rate, and 29th Dropback EPA Allowed.

Mike Evans - Captain/Flex

Mike Evans has the same awesome matchup but has been struggling of late. So this is the perfect time to roll with him in tournaments, especially stacked with Tom Brady. Evans caught 27 touchdown passes in his first two seasons with Brady but has caught just three so far this season. Evans has positive touchdown regression coming, and it could start as early as Monday night. And it's not like the opportunities have been stripped from Evans. Here are his target totals over the past five games: 15, 11, 11, 6, 9. If Marshon Lattimore plays, Evans would be downgraded to a captain only based on their history and Lattimore having great success against Evans.

Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White - Flex

Leonard Fournette is questionable, so his status must be monitored. But he is expected to return this week. That muddies the running back situation in Tampa Bay and essentially turns it into a full-on committee. That makes it tough to predict who to pick, and the rushing matchup isn't ideal as the Saints rank 11th in Rush EPA Allowed. Both players are in play but if having to pick one, go with Rachaad White. White is healthy and coming off of a performance in which he played on 90% of the offensive snaps and handled 23 touches for 109 total yards. He's simply the more talented player right now.

Ryan Succop - Flex

Ryan Succop ranks tied for fourth in both field goal attempts (26) and field goals made (23). He hasn't missed an extra point all season. This is a tough slate to get unique on, and the kickers can help with that.

New Orleans Saints

QUARTERBACK

Andy Dalton - Flex

Andy Dalton has just three games with more than one touchdown pass in nine starts. He has a tough matchup on Monday night against a Buccaneers defense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play Allowed, fourth in Success Rate, and third in Dropback EPA Allowed. Dalton is in play because he's a quarterback on a Showdown slate, but he's not a priority play.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Alvin Kamara - Captain/Flex

Alvin Kamara has had a strange season. He's scored three touchdowns, but they all came in the same game. Other than that one upside performance, he hasn't been an extreme difference-maker despite ranking ninth in opportunities per game (19.6) and 15th in total yards per game (94.6). Still, the elite usage is there, and this, of course, is just a one-game slate. Kamara is in captain consideration against a Buccaneers defense that only ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Chris Olave - Flex

Chris Olave has been a rookie sensation this season. He leads New Orleans in targets with 92, and no other Saint has seen more than 65 targets. With the Buccaneers being 3.5-point home favorites in this one, Olave is going to be needed in a huge way if the Saints hope to score points. Olave is my favorite way to gain access to the Saints.

Taysom Hill - Flex

This is a tough game to get unique on, so of course, Taysom Hill makes sense. Hill played on a season-high 49% of the offensive snaps last week and has 15 carries and 3 targets over his past two games. Always a threat to find the end zone, Hill could end up being the Saint you need.

Rashid Shaheed - Flex

Here's a more fun way to get unique, though. Rashid Shaheed has shown off his blazing speed and playmaking ability in small flashes so far this season, and it appears the Saints want to see a lot more of it. Shaheed's playing time has spiked over the past two weeks to back-to-back career highs of 49% and 53% of the offensive snaps. Shaheed ran a route on 67% of dropbacks and ran just six fewer routes than Chris Olave last week.

Will Lutz - Flex

Will Lutz has made three of his four 50+ yard attempts and hasn't missed an extra point all season. This is a tough slate to get unique on, and the kickers can help with that.