Cracking DraftKings: Divisional Round

Divisional Round Games

• Saturday Slate:
  • Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos - Over/Under 46 - Spread Broncos -1
  • San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 45 - Spread Seahawks -7
• Sunday Slate:
  • Houston Texans at New England Patriots - Over/Under 40.5 - Spread Patriots -3
  • Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Rams -3.5

Bills at Broncos

• Bills:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 6th
    • Dropback EPA: 7th
    • Rush EPA: 3rd
    • Points per game: 6th (27.9)
    • Yards per game: 5th (370.4)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 15th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 8th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 31st
    • Points per game allowed: 12th (22.3)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+89)
• Broncos:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 11th
    • Dropback EPA: 14th
    • Rush EPA: 16th
    • Points per game: 14th (23.9)
    • Yards per game: 9th (349.1)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 8th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 10th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 5th
    • Points per game allowed: 4th (19.3)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+74)

Bills

Josh Allen ($7,100) leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (579), rush touchdowns (14), and DraftKings points per game (24.2). He also ranks 15th in passing yards per game (229.3) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). Last week in a tough matchup, Allen put Buffalo's offense on his back once again, putting up 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. Allen has another tough matchup here and projects to be playing at less than 100% after getting banged up multiple times last week, but the Broncos defense did allow 26 points to the Packers in Week 15 and 34 points to the Jaguars in Week 16. Allen is a matchup-proof alien who won't confuse anyone if he does it again on Saturday.

James Cook ($7,400) ranks fourth in opportunities per game (21.7), fourth in total yards per game (118.6), and fifth in total touchdowns (14). He ranks fourth in 15+ yard runs (16), fourth in missed tackles forced (48), third in yards after contact (753), second in rush yards over expected per attempt (+1.16), and second in rushing success rate (46.5%). He was bottled up last week and has another tough matchup on deck against a Broncos defense that ranks fifth in Rush EPA Allowed, but Cook is too talented and plays in too good of a rushing offense to post dud games back-to-back.

Joshua Palmer, Gabe Davis, and Tyrell Shavers are all out for the rest of the playoffs. Khalil Shakir ($5,100), Brandin Cooks ($4,000), and Keon Coleman ($3,500) are the top three options at wide receiver heading into the weekend.

Shakir is the clear top option. He has led Buffalo in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in back-to-back seasons and ranks third in yards after the catch per reception (7.4). Last week, he ran nine more routes than any other Bill and 13 more routes than any other Buffalo receiver. He caught all 12 of his targets for 82 yards. He's a strong play in all formats.

Last week, Cooks tied with Dalton Kincaid for second on the team in targets (5) and ran the second-most routes (18) at the receiver position.

Coleman caught a 36-yard pass and ran a respectable 15 routes last week. His route participation has to increase this week, regardless of what the organization wants. He's an intriguing large field tournament play.

Dalton Kincaid ($4,300) ran the second-most routes (22) on the Bills last week and caught 3 of 5 targets, including a touchdown. Kincaid is battling through injury, but proved enough last week to be in consideration.

Broncos

Bo Nix ($5,800) ranks 11th in passing yards per game (236.9) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). At the quarterback position, he ranks eighth in DraftKings points per game (20) and fifth in rush touchdowns (5). Nix has been a solid fantasy contributor this season and is playing as a home favorite. He's a tournament option despite the tough Bills' pass defense.

Over RJ Harvey's ($6,200) last five games, he has averaged 18.4 opportunities (Would have ranked 16th over the full season) and 84.8 total yards (Would have ranked 19th over the full season). He scored six touchdowns over that five-game span. He's in a fantastic spot this week. The Broncos are one-point home favorites, and Harvey gets to attack a Bills defense that ranks just 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Here are Denver's top three wide receivers' averages over their past seven games, Weeks 11-18:

Courtland Sutton ($5,900) is obviously Denver's WR1. In the regular season, he ranked 20th in targets per game (7.6), 18th in receiving yards per game (63.3), and ninth in percentage of a team's air yards (35.58%). He has elite upside within his range of outcomes and is in play in tournaments because of it.

However, an extremely small percentage of the field is going to understand just how much ground Pat Bryant ($3,900) made on Sutton throughout the course of his rookie season. Part of this is due to recency bias, as Bryant missed two games, Week 15 and Week 17 at the end of the season, due to injury. However, in his five games played in the above seven-game span, Bryant averaged just 0.2 receptions per game less than Sutton. Buffalo's pass defense is vulnerable over the middle, and Parker Washington put that on full display last week, catching 7 of 12 targets for 107 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Despite fewer games played, fewer snaps played, and fewer routes run, Bryant saw more slot targets and caught more slot passes this year than Sutton. Bryant is a flag plant tournament play.

Troy Franklin's ($4,900) usage has decreased over the second half of the season, but it is important to note that he leads the Broncos in slot targets (42), slot catches (30), and slot receiving yards (326). Franklin is in play in large field tournaments.

Broncos D/ST ($2,800): The Broncos are home favorites, and their defense was awesome this season. They ranked eighth in EPA/Play Allowed, tenth in Dropback EPA Allowed, fifth in Rush EPA Allowed, and fourth in Points per game allowed. Josh Allen is going to have to be Superman once again to keep propelling Buffalo's offense.

49ers at Seahawks

• 49ers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 5th
    • Dropback EPA: 5th
    • Rush EPA: 12th
    • Points per game: 8th (27.1)
    • Yards per game: 7th (362.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 26th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 27th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 10th
    • Points per game allowed: 13th (22.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 7th (+76)
• Seahawks:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 15th
    • Dropback EPA: 8th
    • Rush EPA: 21st
    • Points per game: 2nd (29.4)
    • Yards per game: 8th (350.8)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 7th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 1st
    • Points per game allowed: 2nd (18.1)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+181)

49ers

Brock Purdy ($5,600) ranks sixth in passing yards per game (255), second in pass touchdowns per game (2.5), and second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (23.6). He's been incredible, and he leads an offense that ranks fifth in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA. The matchup is tough on the road against a very tough Seahawks defense, but it's also tough for the Seahawks defense against a very good quarterback and offense. Purdy is a solid tournament play who is sure to come in low-owned for the second playoff week in a row, despite throwing for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns last week in a similar tough road environment.

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) leads the NFL in opportunities per game (26.6) and ranks second in both total yards per game (129.3) and total touchdowns (17). Despite a tough matchup last week, it was no surprise seeing him turn 23 opportunities into 114 total yards, six receptions, and two touchdowns. He's an incredible play regardless of the matchup, as his dual-threat skillset makes him legitimately matchup-proof. In the entire NFL, McCaffrey ranks 20th in targets per game (7.6).

It sounds like Ricky Pearsall ($4,800) will play this week, but clearly at less than 100% as he continues to deal with his nagging PCL knee injury. Because of this, Jauan Jennings ($5,400) projects as the clear WR1 option on the 49ers this week. But Jennings hasn't shone bright this year. He ranks just 54th in targets per game (6) and 69th in receiving yards per game (43.4). And without Pearsall last week, Jennings disappointingly only caught 1 of 3 targets for 45 yards. However, we can't forget the game-changing 29-yard pass touchdown he threw. Jennins is a gamer and absolutely in play.

Demarcus Robinson ($4,400) ran the second-most routes (26) at the wide receiver position on the 49ers last week, and caught 6 of 7 targets for 111 receiving yards and 1 touchdown.

George Kittle's Achilles tear is devastating. Jake Tonges ($3,400) is the next man up. Tonges played in six games without Kittle this season. In those contests, he averaged 6.7 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 44.8 receiving yards. In Week 17, less than a month ago, Tonges caught 7 of 9 passes for 60 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Tonges is a strong tournament player who is priced affordably and will be low-owned.

49ers D/ST ($2,200): This unit is the cheapest of all eight D/STs this weekend! That appears to be a market inefficiency we should exploit. Despite the lack of playmakers on defense, the postseason is about elite coaching, just like it is about elite players. Robert Saleh is a trusted coordinator who can scheme it up with the best of them. They get to attack a quarterback in Sam Darnold, who suffered an oblique injury in practice this week and who threw the third-most interceptions (14) in the regular season.

Seahawks