Cracking DraftKings Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend Games

• Saturday Slate:
  • Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers - Over/Under 46.5 - Spread Rams -10.5
  • Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread Packers -1.5
• Sunday Slate:
  • Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 51.5 - Spread Bills -1.5
  • San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread Eagles -4.5
  • Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots - Over/Under 46.5 - Spread Patriots -3.5
• Monday Slate:
  • Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers - Over/Under 39.5 - Spread Texans -3.5

Rams at Panthers

• Rams:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA: 3rd
    • Rush EPA: 7th
    • Points per game: 1st (30.1)
    • Yards per game: 2nd (394.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 7th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 6th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 9th
    • Points per game allowed: 8th (20.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+155)
• Panthers:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 25th
    • Dropback EPA: 26th
    • Rush EPA: 19th
    • Points per game: 27th (18.6)
    • Yards per game: 27th (296.3)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed: 21st
    • Dropback EPA Allowed: 19th
    • Rush EPA Allowed: 27th
    • Points per game allowed: 16th (22.8)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 23rd (-67)

Rams

Matthew Stafford ($6,900) ranks second in passing yards per game (278), first in pass touchdowns per game (2.6), and fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (21.7). The Rams are 10.5-point favorites, and Stafford has a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 19th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Kyren Williams ($6,400) and Blake Corum ($5,400) are both firmly in play against a Panthers defense that ranks just 27th in Rush EPA Allowed. Over their past five games together, excluding Week 17, where Corum got banged up, here are their numbers:

Williams' 18.3 opportunities per game rank 16th most in the NFL, but Corum has matched his production over the above span with greater efficiency.

Puka Nacua ($8,700) leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (109.3) and yards per route run (YPRR) (3.81) and also ranks second in targets per game (10.3). Nacua is one of the best plays of the entire weekend.

Davante Adams ($6,500) is expected to return after missing three games due to a hamstring injury. He ranks fifth in the entire NFL in touchdowns (14) and 15th in targets per game (8.1). Adams is a strong tournament play who will garner a lower ownership percentage than he would've had he not gotten injured to end the regular season. Shoutout to recency bias.

Tyler Higbee ($3,200), Colby Parkinson ($3,700), and Terrance Ferguson ($2,700) are all in play. Ferguson missed last week due to a hamstring injury but is expected back, although he's listed as questionable. Without Ferguson in Week 18, Higbee, in his first game since Week 11, played on 64% of the offensive snaps and caught 5 of 6 targets for 91 yards and 1 touchdown. Meanwhile, Parkinson played on 84% of the offensive snaps and caught 4 of 7 targets for 36 yards and 2 touchdowns. Good luck picking the correct option here, but Higbee is the preference due to the larger sample size of his prominence within Sean McVay's offense. Over two playoff games last season, Higbee saw 15 targets.

Rams D/ST ($3,500): The Rams are 10.5-point favorites, and their defense ranks top ten in EPA/Play Allowed, Dropback EPA Allowed, Rush EPA Allowed, and points per game allowed. This is a good matchup against an unexciting Panthers offense.

Panthers

Bryce Young is a full fade.

Rico Dowdle ($5,500) and Chuba Hubbard ($4,500) are not options for the full six-game slate, but they are in consideration in the Saturday-only two-gamer. Here are their numbers over their last five games played together:

Neither running back is an enticing option, but Dowdle is the play here. Bet on volume.

Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000) ranks second in the entire NFL in percentage of a team's air yards (44.54%). He also ranks 24th in targets per game (7.3), 28th in receiving yards per game (58.1), and 30th in YPRR (1.79). The Panthers are going to have to find success through the air if they have any hope of pulling off the upset, and the likeliest outcome, if that success is found, is McMillan leading the charge.

Jalen Coker ($4,500) has fully supplanted Xavier Legette as Carolina's WR2. Over the past two weeks, Coker has run a route on 91.4% of dropbacks. Last week, Coker ran more routes than Tetairoa McMillan and led the team in targets (7) and receptions (6). He's a solid play in all formats.

Ja'Tavion Sanders is out due to injury. Without him last week, Tommy Tremble ($2,800) played on 90.2% of the offensive snaps, ran a route on 83.3% of dropbacks, and saw four targets. Tremble is an option in large field tournaments.