Cash Games
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | vs Dolphins | $7,100 |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | vs Titans | $6,400 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | vs Browns | $6,700 |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | vs Lions | $5,900 |
| 5 | Bo Nix | vs Chargers | $6,200 |
| 6 | C.J. Stroud | vs Colts | $5,400 |
| 7 | Jaxson Dart | vs Cowboys | $5,700 |
Drake Maye ranks fourth in passing yards per game (262.7), fifth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9), and third in DraftKings points per game (21.9) at the quarterback position. He leads a Patriots offense that ranks second in EPA/Play, fifth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and seventh in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). Maye is playing at home as a 10.5-point favorite against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed. New England is motivated by a chance at the 1 seed and a first-round bye, making Maye a great play in all formats.
Trevor Lawrence ranks 12th in passing yards per game (234.5), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6), and seventh in DraftKings points per game (20.8) at the quarterback position. He leads a Jaguars offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play, sixth in PROE, and tenth in EDPF. Lawrence is playing at home as an 11.5-point favorite against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed. The Jaguars are motivated, as a victory makes them the AFC South champions. Lawrence is a strong play in both cash and GPPs.
Joe Burrow has played in five games since returning from his turf toe injury. Here are his averages in those games: 276.8 passing yards (Would rank third over the full season) and 2.4 pass touchdowns per game (Would rank third over the full season). Burrow is playing incredible football and leads a Bengals offense that ranks second in PROE and third in EDPF. The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites. Burrow is a good play in both cash and GPPs.
Caleb Williams leads a Bears offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play and ranks 13th in passing yards per game (233.1), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6), and 10th in DraftKings points per game (19.5) at the quarterback position. The Bears are 2.5-point home favorites, and they're plenty motivated as a win locks them into the 2 seed in the NFC. Williams is a good play in all formats.
Bo Nix leads a Broncos offense that ranks 11th in EPA/Play, seventh in PROE, and seventh in EDPF. He ranks 11th in passing yards per game (236.9), seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.6), and eighth in DraftKings points per game (20) at the quarterback position. The Broncos are 11.5-point home favorites, and they're extremely motivated, as a win secures the 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Chargers are locked into a Wild Card spot and have very little to play for.
C.J. Stroud leads a Texans offense that ranks ninth in PROE, and he has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed. The Texans are 10.5-point home favorites, and they have a lot to play for as they can still win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss. Meanwhile, the Colts are eliminated from playoff contention and are in evaluation mode as they're starting Riley Leonard at quarterback.
At the quarterback position, Jaxson Dart ranks third in rushing yards (455) and second in rush touchdowns (9). He's an exciting dual-threat and gets to play at home against a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.
Running Backs
| Rank | Player | Opponent | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | vs Saints | $8,700 |
| 2 | Chase Brown | vs Browns | $7,600 |
| 3 | Travis Etienne Jr. | vs Titans | $7,100 |
| 4 | James Cook | vs Jets | $7,900 |
| 5 | RJ Harvey | vs Chargers | $6,800 |
| 6 | Jaydon Blue | at Giants | $4,300 |
| 7 | Woody Marks | vs Colts | $5,800 |
Bijan Robinson ranks second in opportunities per game (23.3), first in total yards per game (140.9), and 14th in total touchdowns (11). The Falcons are 3.5-point home favorites. Although unlikely, it's worth noting Robinson is 255 yards away from breaking Chris Johnson's single-season total yardage record. Robinson is a strong play in all formats.
Chase Brown ranks 13th in opportunities per game (18.8), 16th in total yards per game (85.4), and 19th in total touchdowns (10). The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites, and Brown has a good matchup on tap against a Browns defense that ranks 25th in Rush EPA Allowed. Brown is a good play in both cash and GPPs.
Travis Etienne Jr. ranks 14th in opportunities per game (18.6), 18th in total yards per game (85.1), and ninth in total touchdowns (13). Etienne is playing at home as an 11.5-point favorite against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in EPA/Play Allowed, and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed. The Jaguars are motivated, as a victory makes them the AFC South champions. Etienne is a valid play in both cash and tournaments.
The Bills are 7.5-point home favorites against the lifeless Jets. James Cook has a chance at the rushing title, so he projects to see plenty of action against this bad defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Rush EPA Allowed. As a reminder of how good he's been this season, Cook ranks fourth in opportunities per game (21.7), fourth in total yards per game (118.6), and fifth in total touchdowns (14). Cook is a great play in all formats.
The Broncos are 11.5-point home favorites, and they're extremely motivated, as a win secures the 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Chargers are locked into a Wild Card spot and have very little to play for. That sets up well for RJ Harvey, whose averages over his past five games are: 18.4 opportunities and 84.8 total yards. Harvey has scored six touchdowns over this span. Harvey sets up well in both cash and tournaments.
Javonte Williams and Malik Davis have both been ruled out, which sets up something we see annually in Week 18: A rookie tryout. Jaydon Blue projects to carry the load as Dallas looks to see if they have anything in him moving into next season. Blue has elite skills: speed and pass-catching ability. He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, but played even faster than that on film at Texas. Blue has a good matchup to put some positive plays on film against a Giants defense that ranks 27th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed.
The Texans are 10.5-point home favorites, and they have a lot to play for as they can still win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss. Meanwhile, the Colts are eliminated from playoff contention and are in evaluation mode as they're starting Riley Leonard at quarterback. This sets up well for Woody Marks, who saw 21 opportunities last week.