Dynasty content is part of the ELITE package for Footballguys Premium Subscriptions. We're making this preview available so you can see the edge these subscribers are getting. Sign up here.
Links to similar discussions:
A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on quarterbacks who are overvalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
Deshaun Watson
The disconnect between redraft (QB19) and dynasty (QB8) is almost entirely explained by the risk of suspension. Our projections have Watson playing 9.5 games, with our six projectors projecting between 9 and 11 games played on the season. Watson has the highest yards per attempt of any active quarterback and Cleveland is an upgrade over Watson’s late tenure in Houston. That Watson’s ranking is higher in dynasty than redraft is not surprising, but Watson’s high-end QB2 redraft ADP reflects his potential payoff if he plays in 2022. If you have Watson’s realize the trade market is cautious on his suspension risk. If you are not getting a first-round startup valuation, you are losing a Watson trade. You are better off trying to insulate around Watson than selling Watson in dynasty.
Trevor Lawrence
At Underdog, Lawrence is QB18 while his dynasty RDP is QB11. This is a major disconnect and one that is particularly actionable. Historically, 64% of quarterbacks selected with a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft hit for a top-12 seasonal finish in their career. Quarterbacks who miss in year one drop to 56%, while quarterbacks missing through two years drop to 47%. Those quarterbacks who miss through three years fall off a cliff to 11%. Lawrence is projected to miss, which drops him from about two-thirds odds of success entering the NFL to one-half and would put him squarely on a historic production cliff. Lawrence can surpass his underdog ADP, but the disconnect makes him a sell at a second-round startup pick cost.
Mac Jones
Mac Jones has a dynasty RDP of 19.5 but a QB25 in Underdog. He was a success story as a rookie, but the Underdog ADP proper reflects Jones’s lack of rushing, a limited set of weapons, and questionable offensive coaching staff and scheme. Jones is safer than QB25 in 2022, but a QB2 range finish would likely cap Jones’s dynasty value in the mid-to-late QB2 range.
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow was QB15 in passing attempts in 2021 (520) but was able to hold a top 12 seasonal finish based on a high touchdown rate (6.5%). Our projections like him to take a leap in passing attempts to QB9 (589) with a small regression to a 6.0% touchdown rate. Despite a favorable increase in volume and an above-average touchdown rate, we project Burrow to miss his QB7 Underdog cost. This would be below his QB4 dynasty RDP. Burrow has a solid outlook for the future, but he is priced at the height of his variance.
Justin Fields
Justin Fields is similarly situated with Trevor Lawrence, with a QB14 dynasty ADP and a QB16 Underdog ADP. Fields is a better runner than Lawrence but has a lack of weapons. With Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet the leading passing game options for Fields, it is hard to see how he can produce a Joe Burrow-like breakout in year two. Fields is no longer on scholarship, and the Ryan Pace/Matt Nagy regime has been replaced by general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus. With little investment made in the offense this offseason, Fields is swimming upstream and heading towards a value cliff in 2023.
