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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on wide receivers who are overvalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
DeVonta Smith had a successful rookie season, with 101 targets, 64 receptions, 96 yards, and five touchdowns. Even so, the Eagles had been upfront about their desire to upgrade the position and did so In a big way with the trade for A.J. Brown. The dynasty RDP has slid down to WR28 post-NFL Draft but has an Underdog ADP of WR34. Smith is WR40 in our projections, behind WR16 A.J. Brown, while projecting Jalen Hurts at QB25 in passing attempts 483. On low volume, Smith is a dangerous trajectory player at his dynasty cost.
Elijah Moore is priced ahead of Devonta Smith, with WR28 in dynasty RDP, but falls to WR31 in Underdog ADP. The Jets selected Garrett Wilson in the first round of the draft, who has an Underdog ADP of WR49. Much of the Jets’ offense was held back by Zach Wilson’s struggles as a rookie. If he can take a big step, there is plenty of room for Moore and Wilson to overperform expectations, but if he does not take a step forward, Moore’s dynasty stock could drop sharply.
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