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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on quarterbacks who are undervalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
Tom Brady returns to Tampa Bay after spending a few weeks in retirement after the 2022 season. Brady is a year-to-year play at this point, but his Underdog ADP (QB9) far outpaces his Dynasty RDP (QB22). With the ceiling Brady offers, he is an intriguing player in Superflex dynasty leagues. Pairing Brady with Deshaun Watson could insulate yourself against the risk of a Watson suspension with Brady’s presumably shorter career timeline in his mid-40s. Likewise, pairing Brady with future rookie pick capital can give you a high-level blend of short-term and long-term production. If you get an investment in Brady, you need to align your team build with Brady’s near-term production window.
Daniel Jones gets a new coaching staff, led by Head Coach Brian Daboll who oversaw the Josh Allen breakout over the past two seasons. Jones has struggled in a lackluster situation the past three seasons and is on the wrong side of the development curve. Underdog ADP (QB23) likes Jones more than dynasty RDP (QB28) but at Jones’s stage of his career, this small difference is not likely to change the arc of his career. If Jones finishes as a backend QB2, he is unlikely to find himself as a long-term starter in the future.
The Philadelphia Eagles have improved their offense this offseason, trading for A.J. Brown to go with wide receiver Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, in what could be one of the most efficient trios of passing game weapons in 2023. Underdog sees Hurts as a beneficiary (QB6), while the dynasty community is more hesitant with an RDP of QB10. The Philadelphia Eagles have two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft and could be an attractive option to a quarterback seeking a trade in the 2023 offseason, both of which would cap Hurts’s dynasty value. Hurts is an interesting target at QB10 price if you can pair him with a strong QB1 and strong QB3. A Hurts/Carr or Hurts/Cousins QB2/QB3 pairing is a compelling blend of security and upside in dynasty startup drafts.
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