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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on running backs who are undervalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
Aaron Jones has an Underdog ADP of RB9, with a Dynasty RDP of RB23. With the loss of Davante Adams, there is plenty of opportunity in the offense for Jones. Overall, Jones has played 67 games in the NFL. In the 59 games with Davante Adams, Jones has 3.4 targets per game, 2.5 receptions, and 17.8 receiving yards per game while averaging 14.9 points per game. In eight games without Adams, Jones has 5.9 targets per game, 4.5 receptions, and 48.5 receiving yards per game while averaging 22.9 points per game. A.J. Dillon will also contribute in the backfield, but Jones has the type of ceiling to make a major difference in 2022.
Cordarrelle Patterson broke out at the beginning of 2021, the ninth season in his career. Patterson was injured during the season and saw a reduction in his receiving role in the second half of the season. Overall, his situation in the backfield is not worse than last year. The team drafted Tyler Allgeier in the fifth round and added Damien Williams in free agency while cutting Mike Davis in the offseason. Patterson has an RDP of 46 with an Underdog ADP of RB30.
Melvin Gordon III is firmly in the backup running back range of the running back position in Dynasty RDP at RB49. His Underdog ADP is 14 spots better at RB35 which is right in line with our projection. Notably, our projections have Javonte Williams taking 212 carries and 45 receptions to only 155 carries and 25 receptions for Gordon. Gordon’s value may be more of a high-end injury-away running back with flex usability if Williams is healthy, with his projection as a cautionary tale for those selecting Javonte Williams with a top-five dynasty ADP at the running back position.
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