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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on running backs who are overvalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
At a position with a limited shelf life, selecting a running back at RB3 in Dynasty who is going RB14 in redraft ADP is a dangerous proposition. Yet that is exactly where Javonte Williams finds himself in 2022. The Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson but retained Melvin Gordon in the backfield, creating the very real possibility Williams will spend the 2022 season in a committee. This should trend toward a Javonte Williams-led backfield, but Gordon is too good to put away, as evidenced by Denver’s decision to bring him back in 2022. Williams presents the ability to pivot down at the position and gain more upside, or across positions for an upgrade.
Dobbins missed the entirety of the 2021 season but remained in the same range of dynasty RDP (RB14) and Underdog ADP (RB21). Despite being among the league leaders in dropbacks per game in 2021, the Ravens did not incorporate their running backs in the passing concepts more than in prior years. Without a passing game role, a window for Dobbins to beat his RDP is narrow. The addition of Mike Davis to the backfield should raise a concern about the return of Dobbins and/or Gus Edwards, who both missed the season with injuries in 2021.
The Washington Commanders spent the offseason exploring the running back market and met with the top running backs in the 2022 draft class before selecting Brian Robinson in the third round. In addition, they recruited J.D. McKissic back after he agreed to sign a contract with the Buffalo Bills. Robinson and McKissic can squeeze Gibson from the rushing and receiving ends of the position respectively and leave Gibson without a role to return value on his RB19 RDP. His RB23 Underdog ADP is a clear case for avoiding him in Dynasty.
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