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A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, the Real Draft Position (RDP) for players over the past month is compared to the recent Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP). Players with a higher dynasty RDP than Underdog ADP are overvalued in the near term, while players with a higher Underdog ADP than Dynasty RDP are dynasty values, particularly later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on wide receivers who are undervalued by Dynasty RDP compared to their Underdog ADP.
Mike Williams had a fifth-year breakout, a rarity for first-round wide receivers. He cashed in with a 3-year, 60-million-dollar contract in the offseason. Williams is returning to an offense led by Justin Herbert, after a career-high in targets (129), receptions (76), and receiving yards (1146). Williams is being drafted as a fringe WR3-4 in dynasty with an RDP at 36, while being in the top 15 in Underdog ADP. Our projections have Williams at WR16. Williams is a good WR2 option for a team waiting on the position in a startup draft.
Mike Evans as a top 24 seasonal finisher has been the most consistent event in fantasy football since Evans was drafted in 2014. Evans has been consistently underrated by dynasty RDP in recent years, and this continues in 2022. Evans is WR25 in dynasty RDP, with Underdog WR8. Evans had the highest touchdown seasons in his career, with 13 and 14 over the past two seasons. Evans has seen lower volumes in the Brady-era than pre-Brady era but could see a growth in volume as Chris Godwin works his way back from injury.
In 2021, Allen Robinson had the worst season of his career outside his 2017 injury-shortened season. Robinson trailed Darnell Mooney in targets, and only managed 5.5 targets per game in 2021. Robinson played 2021 on a franchise tag in a situation that looked toxic throughout the season. Robinson was signed by the Rams, and the pairing with Matthew Stafford will be the best quarterback Robinson has ever played with. The dynasty marketplace has soured on Robinson (WR39 in RDP), while he is the WR22 in Underdog ADP. Odell Beckham Jr transitioned to the Rams and saw an improved dynasty valuation, something Robinson should look for in 2022.
Adam Thielen saw a drop in yards per game and yards per reception in 2021, but maintained his strong touchdown production, with 10 on 95 targets. Thielen will run it back with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota in 2022. Thielen is a WR52 in dynasty RDP with a WR36 ADP. At his cost, Thielen is unlikely to improve in dynasty trade value but can eat innings for a team looking to sort out its wide receiver corps.
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