Welcome to Week 6 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Dynasty Buy-Sell-Hold(See below)
- The Jaguars' Backfield
- The True Reveal: Week 5
- Not So Fast . . .
Dynasty Buy-Sell Hold
Matt Waldman: From the following list of players in dynasty leagues, which three players would you be buying, selling, and/or holding? Again, choose THREE.
- James Cook
- Khalil Shakir
- Kenny Pickett
- Geno Smith
- Hunter Renfrow
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Fred Warner
- Germaine Pratt
- Justin Madubuike
- Tariq Woolen
Let's make some magic . . .
Jordan McNamara: There feels like there is real optimism around Kenny Pickett in the dynasty marketplace. As a mid-first-round NFL pick, Pickett has a less than 50% chance of becoming a reliable quarterback in a dynasty format. Plenty of players have been disappointed and left their teams with worse records than expected. Teams with disappointing quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford may all be on teams with dynasty GMs left surprised with disappointing teams. As a result, I think Pickett is a sell, specifically to use as a pivot to a more established quarterback who has disappointed through five weeks.
Waldman: Thank you! Even if Pickett succeeds, and there are reasons on film to believe it's possible, fantasy GMs and football media continually fall for the same early-career promise of a player during his first 6-8 weeks of play before opposing defenses get enough game film to make adjustments that offer a truer reveal over a period of another 8-12 weeks. Often, the smart play is to leverage that buzz into a blue-chip player whose disappointments will eventually be in the rearview mirror.
McNamara: Geno Smith is a great lens to evaluate dynasty trading. Smith was probably a waiver pickup, and he is clearly worth more than that after surpassing all expectations this season. When these situations present themselves, it is important to properly adjust to the player’s new reality. Getting anything in return for Smith is a profit from his acquisition cost but is not necessarily a successful trade. Smith has a real chance to be a Ryan Tannehill-like arc in the second act of his career. In this light, selling for anything less than a second-round pick in Superflex leagues is a capitulation. The best way to do this is to get the second-round type valuation for Smith in a trade that upgrades another position. Other than a trade that makes my team’s players better, Smith is a hold.
Devin Singletary was one of the worst-receiving running backs prior to 2022. The team went into this offseason with a clear intention of improving the pass catchers in the backfield and to that end drafted James Cook. In the meantime, Devin Singletary has dramatically improved while Cook has gotten off to a slow start to his career. Singletary will be a free agent in the offseason, and at worst, Cook will head into the offseason with a good chance to contribute, with the potential to contribute this season in the event of a Singletary injury or regression in his play.
Ryan Weisse: Renfrow might be the only name I'm buying from this list. Cook is interesting, but I doubt his trade price reflects his current play. Managers were already scared of Renfrow coming into this season with the addition of Davante Adams. His early injury has likely driven his price down further. He is still only 26 years old, though he turns 27 in December, and is averaging almost seven targets per game and catching 70% of the balls thrown his way. In a 17-game season, that would be 120 targets and 84 receptions. Based on average yards per catch and touchdowns, he is still a WR2 in fantasy, but his price will not reflect that due to recent struggles.
I'm all about selling hype in dynasty formats, and of this list, Kenny Pickett and Khalil Shakir have that in their favor right now. Pickett won the starting job quicker than most thought and has been exciting to watch. Unfortunately, that excitement has not yet translated to great fantasy play, with no touchdowns thrown against four interceptions. However, he's shown rushing upside and made some highlight reels, so the value is there. There is a good chance you can improve on the pick you spent on him for the 2023 draft, widely regarded as more talented, and even get a player or two back on the process, maybe even Geno Smith.
Shakir did well in his first real action of the season, and most managers are clamoring for a piece of the Josh Allen offense. As a fifth-round rookie, his role is far from secure, and Isaiah McKenzie has played well enough to earn his job back once he is ready to return. If managers in your league are already penciling Shakir in as Josh Allen's new slot receiver, take advantage. You likely spent a third- or fourth-round pick for him, and he could fetch a second in 2023, with a couple of veterans thrown in for good measure.
Gary Davenport: Since I feel like the IDPs were put here as bait, I might as well take it.
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