Photo: USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Kanas City Chiefs are heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers as .5-point favorites. The total is set at 45.5. There do not seem to be any weather concerns for this game despite Tampa Bay feeling the effects of Hurricane Ian just days ago. The story of the slate starts and ends with the Buccaneer’s wide receiver group. Mike Evans is returning from suspension at full health, but Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Chris Godwin are all coming off of nagging lower body injuries. We need to monitor the news to see if any of them will be on a pitch count. The headache lies with projecting snap shares amongst the injured wide receivers. With so much ambiguity we have a chance to separate ourselves from the field if we can nail down which Tampa Bay wide receivers are worth playing.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Breshad Perriman – Knee/Ankle – Inactive

Russell Gage – Hamstring – Active

Chris Godwin – Hamstring – Active

Julio Jones – Knee – Active

Harrison Butker – Ankle – Questionable

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Abdomen – Questionable

Mecole Hardman – Heel – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Leonard Fournette
2. Patrick Mahomes II
3. Travis Kelce
4. Mike Evans
5. Tom Brady

CHIEFS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Patrick Mahomes II started the year with a 5-touchdown and 360-yard performance that resulted in him resting for most of the fourth quarter. Since then, he has attempted 35 passes a game and thrown for just 3 total touchdowns. He is going to be the more popular quarterback to stack in this game, but his receiving corps is not much less ambiguous than Tom Brady’s. We still don’t have clarity on the Chiefs’ top wide receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is leading the team in snaps, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has a slight lead in targets. Mecole Hardman is firmly entrenched as the third option playing on over half the snaps. Mahomes is going to be difficult to stack without being chalky. We could omit Travis Kelce, but it is unlikely that Mahomes finishes in the optimal lineup without Kelce. Here are some ideas to play Mahomes at Captain while remaining unique.

Patrick Mahomes II / Travis Kelce / Noah Gray

Patrick Mahomes II / Marquez Valdes-Scantling / Jerick McKinnon

Patrick Mahomes II / JuJu Smith-Schuster / Justin Watson