Dented Cans Are Valuable
Adam Harstad and I have a weekly Film and Data podcast that you should be checking out. We're both successful dynasty GMs. As just a brief example, he's the reigning Footballguys Staff Dynasty League champ and I'm the reigning Footballguys Staff IDP Dynasty League champ. Both of our teams are top of our respective leagues this year.
Adam and I often share the same views on players despite taking opposite approaches to how we manage teams. He studies the data and engages in a lot of trades. I study the film and usually buy and hold.
It makes for informative conversation and podcast listening. Thursday's podcast covers a segment that he referred to as "dented cans," in dynasty formats — players whose values have taken a hit due to factors such as injury, performance, and suspension that we have good reason to believe will rebound.
As Adam pointed out during the show, even if the player ultimately doesn't rebound on the field, it's often the case that you'll see his value rise significantly before he even gets to prove on the field that he has rebounded. The key is to acquire the player at the earliest available low point — immediately after the injury, suspension, or a low point in the narrative about his performance.
The dented cans you should be considering are young players with proven skills. You're not going to earn a 100 percent hit rate with any approach, but the opportunity to leverage a deal based on waning public sentiment often leads to a big profit either with a second trade or actually using the player in your lineups. One good deal of 3-4 attempts can deliver results that far outweigh the limited success or failure of other attempts.
Josh Jacobs is a good recent example. So is Tua Tagovailoa for the past two years. Joe Burrow after his ACL tear was another. Nick Chubb playing special teams behind Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr. What about Jonathan Taylor's first half of his rookie season when fans and fantasy media were throwing Trent Richardson's name around as a parallel?
All profit.
Speaking of Trent Richardson (and Eddie lacy)...
Najee Harris' can is dented:
- He's RB26 in PPR formats this year.
- He's averaging 3.6 yards per carry
- He has 1 rushing touchdown.
- UDFA Jaylen Warren has cut into Harris' snaps and is averaging 5 yards per carry.
- He played at Alabama
Let's review each bullet point in order because there's a lot of illusion or simplistic thinking attached to these statements.
He's RB26 in PPR formats this year: While a fact, this is a result that has no explanation about the process behind the player. The process shows us talent; the results show us production. Harris is also 15th among NFL running backs in rushing attempts, a production metric that reveals the second-year runner remains a valued part of the offense. We'll get to Warren's "emergence" in a few.
He's averaging 3.6 yards per carry: As Adam often notes, yards per carry is an awful stat. It doesn't depict the skill of the running back effectively despite the media using it for this reason. Yards per carry is often a reflection of how successful the line is at blocking up to the third level of the defense and giving a runner the room to build to top speed and generate breakaway runs that inflate the top end of the stat.
It doesn't show how well a running back mitigates losses or maximizes the potential of more difficult scenarios, such as navigating broken blocking schemes, successful defensive penetration, and loaded boxes with ideal alignments for the defense.