Inspired by our friends at Fantasy Index, we asked our staffers to review their preseason rankings and find a player they were utterly wrong on. In doing so, we wanted them to give us the lesson learned from that erroneous ranking. This will allow us to get a head start on the 2024 season, as we don't want to repeat mistakes. Learning a lesson means we get better.
So let's get better.
Craig Lakins - Be Wary of Fragile Situations
I took a strong stance on Daniel Jones having a great season. He finished 2022 as a top-10 fantasy quarterback while showing the ability to be dynamic with his legs as he ran for more than 700 yards with seven touchdowns. The thesis of my stance was that he would take another leap in his second year running Brian Daboll's offense. The Giants tried to add some playmakers around him, but no one in the receiving corps has stepped into an alpha role. Perhaps much of the blame falls on Jones, but the offense took a very unexpected step backward. His season-ending knee injury plays a role in his weak fantasy finish, but he failed to reach ten fantasy points in four out of five weeks to begin the season. The lesson for 2024 is to be wary of flimsy situations. The Giants were always susceptible to regression with the strength of the NFC East. Jones has always had his warts, so assuming he would finally piece it all together was ambitious.
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Jason Wood - Players Have a High Range of Outcomes
Tony Pollard is the easy choice. He was my No. 5-ranked running back, and drafting him in the second half of the first round was an easy choice. As fantasy analysts, we all make incorrect calls, but Pollard stands out because his poor performance has come despite the dominoes falling in Dallas the way I expected. Dallas is a legitimate playoff contender. They're currently the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NFL, the defense keeps them in positive game scripts, and head coach Mike McCarthy believes in running the ball.
On top of that, no breakout rookie is taking away snaps. He's playing over 70% of team snaps yet ranks RB26 per game. He's the one piece of the Cowboys offense not performing well. The lesson here is to remember that all players have a high range of outcomes, and betting on a player to transcend what we've seen them accomplish is a high-risk, high-reward endeavor.
Phil Alexander - Situation Isn't Always Enough
Alexander Mattison found his way onto 22% of my best ball rosters this summer, which, in retrospect, was roughly 22% too many. I wasn't concerned Mattison had failed to average more than 3.8 yards per carry in a season since 2020. Yards per carry isn't a sticky stat from year to year, and besides, who needs efficiency when Mattison would get all the volume he can handle in a projected top-10 scoring offense?
As it turns out, yards per carry is rather sticky year over year in Mattison's case. He has once again plodded his way to 3.7 yards per attempt. And while he did receive bell-cow usage in Weeks 1-6, Mattison only mustered a single top-10 weekly finish. The Vikings soured on him enough to trade for someone else's problem (Cam Akers) after three weeks. Now we've seen Ty Chandler slide into Akers' vacated role and look more explosive than Mattison has all season. It leaves Mattison as the RB27 in fantasy leagues, with the arrow pointing down.
The lesson for moving forward is not to overvalue projectable volume in the preseason when it's all a running back has going for him. Mattison had shown us in a sizeable enough sample that he doesn't add value to his touches. More carries failing to fix the problem shouldn't come as a surprise. It was easier to avoid the projectable volume trap with Miles Sanders, who went from one of the league's best offenses to one of the worst. But 2023 Mattison should serve as a reminder that not even friendly offensive surroundings are enough to bail out a runner who isn't very good.
Hutchinson Brown - Avoid Prior Biases
I usually don’t fall for the volume at running back trap, but I did with Cam Akers. I have always loved Akers; since his college days, I have absolutely loved him. I have rooted for him his whole career, and I think let that shift my thinking of the actual reality with him this season. I think I let myself talk myself into Akers.
What I need to learn and do going forward is make sure I evaluate with less bias and be more willing to change my thoughts on a player with new information, even if it means betting against a player I like and really, really rooting for.
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Maurile Tremblay - Projected Volume Is Important
Other things equal, good efficiency is better than poor efficiency, of course. But I would stand by the proposition that, as a general rule, projected volume is a lot more important than projected efficiency. I would advise against "learning" any lesson to the contrary.
The problem with Mattison and Akers wasn't that their fantasy production would depend on volume. The problem was that the volume they'd depend on was always rather suspect. We really shouldn't count on low-efficiency players to maintain high volume when they could easily lose snaps to more explosive teammates.
That was the problem with Najee Harris as well. And arguably Kenneth Gainwell.
The proper lesson isn't that volume is overrated. The proper lesson, IMO, is that while volume is supremely important, the best way to maintain high volume is to be really good at football. Guys who plod along kicking up three yards of dust at a time are eminently replaceable regardless of where they stand on August depth charts.
Phil Alexander - Poor Players With Volume Are Still Poor Players
I 100% agree, Maurile. We are each making the same point, except you made it more clearly than I did. I hope I didn't suggest volume was Mattison's problem or that it is less important than efficiency. I love volume. Can't get enough of the stuff.
Mattison's problem was that he had no other positive attributes besides a sizeable projected workload in Week 1. The trap I'm hoping to avoid in the future is failing to consider how fragile season-long projections made during the preseason are for players with Mattison's dubious career track record. As you pointed out, just because a running back has a high-volume role in Week 1 doesn't mean they'll keep it all year while playing poorly.
Matt Waldman - Don't Ignore Historical Coaching Tendencies
While aware of his injury history and a reckless style of movement that may contribute to additional injury concerns, I expected Toney would build on what he did in limited time with the Chiefs. While the Chiefs also expected the same, especially their GM, who labeled Toney the team's No.1 receiver this spring, I wish I had looked deeper into the history of receiver production in Andy Reid offenses.
The number of high-end fantasy producers in Reid's West Coast Offense since 1999 has been small -- both in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Moreover, the best producers had something in common: they were proven improvisers who could be on the same page with their quarterback's off-structure play and deliver great routes within structure. There was limited proof that Toney was a talented player within the structure of the offense and far less proof, if any, that he could thrive off-structure.
Other than Travis Kelce, I would have avoided all Chiefs receivers with a grade higher than the 11th round in fantasy drafts.
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Andy Hicks - Don't Blindly Target High-End Rookies
Every year, fantasy managers confuse redraft with dynasty leagues. We often come out way too strong on rookies. We’ve seen them dominate at the college level, get drafted high, and in good situations. But it is not enough. Bijan Robinson and Anthony Richardson are an example this year.
After having both players ranked considerably lower than my peers, except in dynasty rankings, I succumbed to the glowing training camp reports and positive comments and ignored the historical trends. Robinson had a coach who gave us a clue with his Kyle Pitts management last year. Tyler Allgeier was a 1000-yard rusher. Richardson was viewed as a rushing threat unlike any we have seen. And he was. But running quarterbacks always carry injury concerns if they cannot mitigate risks.
Countering this point is the fact we have C.J. Stroud, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, and Jahmyr Gibbs ranking as 1s at their respective fantasy positions. All were relatively good to great value in redraft. In conclusion, few rookies deserve high rankings as fantasy prospects. Always try to find the downside and evaluate value carefully on rookies.
Matt Montgomery - Don't Conflate Dynasty and Re-Draft Value
A player that I was too high on to start the season was quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I primarily play dynasty leagues in fantasy football, but even as a redraft quarterback, I felt that Lawrence would give you the value needed to put your team over the top. While I still believe he has value in dynasty leagues, I was way too excited to get him as a top-seven quarterback in redraft leagues. The biggest issue? He has a turnover problem. With 10 total on the year, he is shrinking his point ceiling at a rate higher than most elite quarterbacks. Although his last game was his best this season, these games are too few and far between to really go all in on. The main lesson I have learned here is that sometimes you have to see the growth before putting all your chips in the middle just on potential. Lawrence is still a hold in dynasty leagues, but if you have a deadline in redraft this week, I would look to upgrade your quarterback from Lawrence.
Jeff Bell - Don't Fade Players With Big-Play Ability
I faded Travis Etienne much too hard. Two factors were the primary driver: his lack of passing game involvement and the addition of Tank Bigsby in the draft. Early on, it felt correct as Bigsby saw redzone work in Week 1. But a fumble that allowed the Colts to hang in the game was a nail in his coffin. He had eight opportunities in Week 1 but was never above four again until Week 11, with nine touches in garbage time.
Ultimately, Etienne represents what we should target out of fantasy football running backs—players with big-play ability in offenses with strong scoring potential. There are so many unpredictable factors, especially health. Buying into narratives about preseason player usage regarding proven contributors should be avoided.
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