The New Reality No.204: Key Profiles and Questions

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

This week's installment will examine key profiles, situations, and questions through the dynasty sphere.

QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Richardson's rookie season is potentially done with a shoulder injury, and he provided just a glimpse of his fantasy upside. On a per-quarter basis, Richardson's prorated production would be QB1 overall. Obviously, there are flaws with assuming his smaller sample size upside would have continued over most or all of the season. Still, the takeaway is his ready-to-go fantasy starter profile showing itself immediately. In many passing categories, Richardson was middle of the pack or below the NFL average. On the positive side, the optics of "Does Richardson look comfortable in the pocket?" and "Can he execute from the pocket?" were yes in the early sample size. One sticky metric for quarterbacks throughout their careers is their TD-INT Rate Ratio, measured by touchdowns per completion over interceptions per incompletion. The NFL average is roughly 1.10 in a given year and over a big sample size. The key marker for rookie quarterbacks (especially non-1.01 selections) is at least hitting 0.90. Richardson sits at 2.04, higher than Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson.

Richardson's QB10(ish) market value is palatable in dynasty, especially for teams falling out of the playoff race and looking toward a high-upside profile for 2024. Even if not thinking of holding Richardson for the long haul, Richardson merely playing a handful of complete games consecutively next season provides the flexibility to jump to Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert far more easily than almost any other quarterback. Here are a few trades this week as examples of buying opportunities for Richardson:

• Kyler Murray, Raheem Mostert for Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb
• Justin Fields, Jakobi Meyers for Anthony Richardson
• Brock Purdy, Puka Nacua for Anthony Richardson, Marvin Mims
• Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor for Anthony Richardson