Who Will Green Bay and Other NFC North Teams Draft?

Photo: Mark Hoffman, USA Today Sports

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The period between free agency and the NFL draft is one of the quietest in the NFL calendar. Most free agent signings happen quickly, and teams wait until after the draft to take advantage of the compensatory pick formula. The formula rewards net losses, and the NFL has moved the date up for non-qualified signings to the Monday following the draft. That allows an opportunity to identify draft needs and underrated dynasty buy low players to target before the draft grants clarity. This series will look division by division at where teams stand before the draft.

Minnesota Vikings: Dalvin Cook is not safe.

In January, this call felt much riskier in the Footballguys Mock Draft 1.0 before the Vikings' recent comments. Cook's cap hit for the next three years lands in the ballpark of $43 million. Or the Vikings can move on, incurring a cap hit of $8 million spread over 2023 and 2024. But the key date is June 1st. If the Vikings trade Cook after that date, it drops yearly to a $3 million charge.

But the real indicator of their intentions is Alexander Mattison. Mattison was an unrestricted free agent the Vikings retained on the open market. His $6.5 million guaranteed was the fourth most out of 26 running back signings. Popular dynasty rankings sources still hold him at the backend of RB3 status, valued as a high-value handcuff. Mattison is very young for a player who hit the open market; he's a month younger than 2022 rookie Ty Chandler, who the Vikings also like. Take advantage of the market while he's viewed as a disappointment who did not grab an "open" job.

The open question in the draft is the wide receiver room. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn combined for 725 targets over the last two seasons. All other wide receivers totaled 47. Meanwhile, fullback C.J. Ham saw 30. Thielen is gone. They have to add talent. The other receivers on the roster are Jalen Nailor, Jalen Reagor, and Brandon Powell. Nailor is the deep name to watch as a candidate to follow in Osborn's footsteps and rise in his second season. Reagor has name value, but the addition of Powell, who served as the Rams' punt returner, makes Reagor's place on the roster tenuous. The main question is Osborn's ceiling. He only had one window with Thielen out of the lineup at the end of 2021. The result was four touchdowns in five games. The reality is the team likely read the departure of Thielen and added Hockenson as his replacement.

Green Bay Packers: They finally have to draft a wide receiver early.

Much to the chagrin of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have held off investing early draft capital in the wide receiver position for years. Since Davante Adams's selection in the second round in 2014, the Packers have taken three receivers before the fourth round: Ty Montgomery in 2015, Amari Rodgers in 2021, and Christian Watson in 2022. Watson is the only one left and is the active leader in Packers' receiving yards between the wide receiver and tight end rooms, with 611.

That current receiver grouping includes Watson, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, tight ends Josiah Degura, and Tyler Davis. The career yardage for the entire group is 1,550. Watson and Doubs showed flashes as outside receivers, and Degura can function in an H-back tight end/fullback hybrid role. But the team needs a high-level slot receiver and could stand to land an inline tight end. Both are positions of strength in the 2023 class, but if the team fails to address these positions, this group has underrated dynasty options.

There has to be, or the tenure of Jordan Love may be very short-lived.

The backfield will lead this attack. Aaron Jones set career-highs in targets and receptions in 2022 while combining with A.J. Dillon for nearly 400 rushing attempts. Those two are set, but the growth in the receiving game could be an underrated factor. Without Rodgers's excellence and familiarity with the receiving options, Love and the offense could rely much heavier on creative running back involvement in the passing game. Dave Kluge wrote a guide to stacking in best ball formats, and the Packers present one of the cheapest opportunities across the league to grab components of a stack.

Interested in trying Best Ball? Check out the Footballguys Best Ball Guide.