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The period between free agency and the NFL draft is one of the quietest in the NFL calendar. Most free agent signings happen quickly, and teams wait until after the draft to take advantage of the compensatory pick formula. The formula rewards net losses, and the NFL has moved the date up for non-qualified signings to the Monday following the draft. That allows an opportunity to identify draft needs and underrated dynasty buy low players to target before the draft grants clarity. This series will look division by division at where teams stand before the draft.
Cleveland Browns: Committee Backfield is Over For Nick Chubb
Over the last four seasons, the Browns have split their backfield 57% to 43% between Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Over that time, only the Ravens and Titans rushed more than the Browns. But times are changing. When Deshaun Watson took over, the rush attempts dropped closer to 24 per game when the weather was not a factor, putting the Browns into the bottom ten league-wide.
The team is shifting to complement Watson's skillset and keep pace with the offensive league leaders. The addition of Elijah Moore gives the team a slot-heavy option to transition from heavy two-tight-end usage sets to more base three-receiver packages, a trend the team picked up from 2021 to 2022.
At first glance, a pass-heavier offense seems a knock on Chubb. However, factors converge to point toward Chubb having his heaviest usage.
First is Hunt's absence and a backfield that features second-year Jerome Ford as the top backup. Hunt is still a free agent and could return, but with the Browns not picking until 74th, that would be the real threat to Ford being positioned as an injury breakout. Next, if the Browns are leaning into base 11 personnel, fewer substitutions are required, and they can increase the pace of play, keeping Chubb on the field. Finally, if the passing game develops, Chubb could run into fewer stacked boxes, where he has placed among the league leaders in stacked box attempts. Our Devin Knotts liked the Browns to target Kenny McIntosh in the Four-Round Staff Mock Draft.
Chubb has long earned recognition as one of the best pure running backs in the NFL. As currently constructed, the Browns may finally give him a chance to claim the rushing title by rushing less.
Cincinnati Bengals: Leading Rusher Is Not On The Roster
The Bengals have many reasons to move on from Joe Mixon, from declining performance to his on-again, off-again legal situation. But the biggest reason is financial. The team can save $10 million by releasing him with a post-June 1 designation. Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn has been blunt when asked about Mixon, saying, "Right now, he is on the team."
The Bengals are not shy about using draft capital to address the running back position when needed. In 2013 the team used the 37th pick on Gio Bernard. They followed it up by using the 55th pick on Jeremy Hill to create a thunder-and-lightning duo. Then in 2017, with Hill entering the final year of his rookie deal, they drafted Mixon 48th.
They only have one pick in that range, their first-rounder at 28. That pick opens them up to almost any back in the draft, and Ben Cummins likes them landing Zach Charbonnet.
The rest of their skill talent looks close to set. Tight end is a popular mock draft position. Still, the team seems to have stumbled onto a plan: getting the best out of C.J. Uzomah before his free agency, utilizing Hayden Hurst on a one-year contract before he rebounded his value, and now taking a turn with Irv Smith Jr. For a team that does not prioritize the position within their offense, it's an intriguing game plan, eliminating risk and selling their ability to position rebounds in a rich offensive environment.
