Who will New Orleans and other NFC South Teams Draft?

Photo: Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports

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The period between free agency and the NFL draft is one of the quietest in the NFL calendar. Most free agent signings happen quickly, and teams wait until after the draft to take advantage of the compensatory pick formula. The formula rewards net losses, and the NFL has moved the date up for non-qualified signings to the Monday following the draft. That allows an opportunity to identify draft needs and underrated dynasty buy low players to target before the draft grants clarity. This series will look division by division at where teams stand before the draft.

Carolina Panthers: Miles Sanders will be a rookie quarterback's best friend.

Sanders has averaged only 118 receiving yards over the last two seasons. That's 236 in two full seasons of football. For reference, Austin Ekeler's three best games in 2022 totaled 223. Putting it bluntly, Sanders was one-dimensional. But that was not always the case. As a rookie, Sanders caught 50 passes for 509 yards, becoming one of only 15 rookie running backs to hit the 50 / 500 threshold.

This production was more a product of the Jalen Hurts offense than a lacking skillset. The Eagles allocated 55 targets to their top two running backs in 2022. Meanwhile, in Frank Reich's last two full seasons in Indianapolis, the top two running backs saw an average of 111.5 targets. In a Carolina offense with a potential rookie quarterback and a wide receiver room featuring Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark, Sanders will be a primary receiving option.

The Panthers' offense desperately needs to add a difference-maker but should be commended for adding starting-level talent in free agency. Thielen and Chark would still crack most top-three rotations across the league, and Hayden Hurst is a mid-level starting tight end. The rumors lean heavily toward Bryce Young as the first overall pick, and hopefully, the Panthers will target a high-upside receiver with their second-round choice.

New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave should see dominant passing volume with the Saints.

The Saints could stand to add to their backfield and receiver room, but with their first pick coming at 29th and a need to build depth through the lineup, it is unlikely they will add a player to contribute in a significant way a rookie. Alvin Kamara's 77 targets have a potential suspension looming, and the team lost another 73 targets between Jarvis Landry and Marquez Callaway. Olave's primary target competition will be Michael Thomas, who has played ten games since the start of the 2020 season, and former undrafted free agent second-year receiver Rashid Shaheed.

Olave showed glimpses of handling volume; from weeks two through seven, he averaged 10.6 targets for a full-season pace of 180 targets - 99 receptions - 1,544 yards. Olave sits just outside the top 12 receivers in early best ball ADP, a threshold he fell just two PPR points short of clearing in his rookie season. In an offense that has set records for funneling volume to Thomas in the past, Olave may be valued at his floor. Our Christian Williams likes Olave to follow in his parameters set for The Archetype Of A Top 12 WR.

Kamara is the biggest question. In the best-case scenario, Jamaal Williams gives a physical compliment the team had lacked the last two seasons when Kamara was forced into a more traditional running back role, and his targets dropped by nearly two per game from averaging 102 over his first four seasons to 72 for the last. But returning to that number would break trends on Derek Carr, who has only had one running back see more than 65 targets in a nine-year career. That player, Jalen Richard's 81 in 2018, does not instill confidence in a meaningful receiving back role returning for Kamara, even absent a suspension.