Prop Talk Week 9

Photo: Peter van den Berg, USA Today Sports

Week 8 Recap- 3-2:

Another 3-2 week for the second week in a row. These are the types of weeks that accumulate throughout the season as you wait for a 4-1 or 5-0 week to make the big profit. 24-16 on the season is exactly 60% which if it can hold would be the best season of this article.

Derrick Henry Over 67.5 Rushing Yards- Win
A.J. Brown Over 89.5 Receiving Yards- Win
P.J. Walker Under 196.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Tyson Bagent Over 199.5 Passing Yards- Win
Raheem Mostert Over 52.5 Rushing Yards- Loss

Derek Carr Over 252.5 Passing Yards

The Bears are a funnel defense as surprisingly they have one of the best run defenses in the NFL this season as they’re only allowing 67 rushing yards per game. However, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season as they’re allowing 270 yards per game which is the third-most in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Saints passing attack has been great since Carr recovered from his shoulder injury. Over the last three weeks, Carr has topped 300 yards in all three games. The only question will be whether the Bears can do enough to keep this game close if the Saints are forced to throw the ball for four quarters, the Bears do not have enough players in the secondary to stop this passing attack with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara.

C.J. Stroud Over 246.5 Passing Yards

C.J. Stroud was an ATM for us early in the season as his over props were simply free money. Then it stopped, as in the last three weeks, the Texans have faced three of the best pass defenses in the NFL in Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans. Now, for the fourth game in a row, the Texans are playing an NFC South opponent, but this week, they get the one team that has a weak pass defense in that division. Tampa Bay is allowing 269 passing yards per game which is the sixth-most in the NFL, and those numbers are helped out tremendously due to a game against the Saints back in Week 4, when it was clear that Derek Carr could not throw the ball downfield with his shoulder injury. Carr threw for only 127 yards in that game, and every quarterback besides Carr and Justin Fields has topped 246.5 against the Buccaneers this season.

Deshaun Watson Under 15.5 Rushing Yards

While the Browns are saying all the right things regarding Deshaun Watson’s health, it just seems completely irresponsible for him to run the ball against the Cardinals unless something has gone completely wrong in this game. The Browns are 11-point favorites this week and should be able to win this game utilizing their defense, rushing attack, and the arm of Watson. The last time that Watson played, this was free money as well and he did not come close to running the ball against the Colts and still took a big hit rolling outside the pocket. It would seem that the Browns would want to get him through one game healthy and with the Browns likely having the lead in this one, there is no reason to scramble.

ROABLOCK

Bijan Robinson Under 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Bijan Robinson continues to be somewhat disappointing for fantasy managers who took him as early as they did in the 2023 season. On the year, Robinson has only topped 87.5 rushing+receiving twice in eight games. While he is averaging 82 yards per game, those have largely come in bunches as he was great against Jacksonville and Green Bay back in Week 2. However, even last week in a game that should have featured Robinson as a receiver, it’s clear something is going on inside that locker room. Before his Week 7 disappearance where he had just one touch, Bijan was averaging 17.7 touches per game. Now, over the last two games, he has a total of just 12 ouches as he did not catch a pass last week.

The matchup is a tough one this week for Robinson as he’s taking on a Vikings defense that has only allowed two players to top the 87.5 number as Christian McCaffrey had 96 in Week 7 on 18 touches, while D’Andre Swift tore this defense apart back in Week 2 as he had 181 yards on 31 touches.

Adam Thielen Over 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

This is some severe disrespect by the market for Adam Thielen. Over the last five games, Thielen has topped 70 yards in each of those five games as he has had 145, 82, 107, 115, and 72 yards. What’s great about Thielen is that being on a 1-6 team they’re going to be throwing for most of the game which has allowed him to average 11.8 targets per game. The Colts have allowed 7 wide receivers to top 70 yards this season and Thielen should have a significant size advantage over slot corner Kenny Moore as he should have about 6’’ of height and 30 pounds on Moore.

The reason we are taking Rushing + Receiving is the difference is only one yard as the receiving prop is at 69.5 this week. Thielen only has one carry on the season, but on the off-chance he gets a second one I would rather the positive yards help and take the chances that he doesn’t land on exactly 70 yards meaning that the receiving over would hit and the rushing+receiving would lose.