Anthony Richardson Has League-Winning Upside in 2023

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

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"That young man has something special in his heart and spirit and soul."

Following the Colts' selection of Anthony Richardson earlier this year, Jim Irsay couldn't stop gushing about the 6-foot-4, 244-pound rookie quarterback. Terms like "superhero" catch headlines, but the Colts being set on Richardson as early as February speaks to their confidence in him becoming their new franchise quarterback. Shane Steichen had one of the loudest and most influential voices in the room; Irsay clarified that it had to be Steichen's guy following the selection. And Steichen's previous two stops lend fantasy football managers a glimpse into how Anthony Richardson may be utilized, even as a rookie. Richardson's unique athleticism scratches the surface of his ability as an NFL quarterback but opens the door for immediate production as a fantasy quarterback. The combination of Richardson's talents as a runner and Steichen's offensive design paves the way for instantaneous top-12 production, allowing fantasy managers to chase upside in the later rounds of drafts.

Anthony Richardson Scouting Report

"Richardson is the ultimate boom-or-bust prospect in the draft... he is a true dual-threat at the position, rushing for 654 yards and nine touchdowns." Kevin Coleman discussed Richardson's ability in the 2023 Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide, highlighting the rushing potential of the former Florida quarterback. Richardson certainly has athleticism: his 4.43-second forty-yard dash, 40.5" vertical jump, and 10'9" broad jump gave him a relative athletic score of 10.00, surpassing Cam Newton as the most athletic quarterback to enter the NFL since 1987. That athleticism translates as he presents the threat of explosive runs each time he carries the football.

For fantasy output, Richardson's rushing upside is the prime source of excitement for managers (more on this later). But Richardson's passing skill set is much more advanced than his stats suggest. To start, the effortlessness with which he generates velocity is remarkable. He can throw the ball accurately 60 yards downfield and zip darts into tight windows. Accuracy remains a question, though, as inconsistencies in his mechanics create erraticism on even the simplest of throws. From a processing and pocket management standpoint, Richardson's skill set is further along than most one-year starters. In 2022, he consistently worked to his backside reads, often the third or fourth in his progression. And his natural feel for the pocket made him the most challenging quarterback in the nation to sack.

Richardson's draft capital suggested much of this, so why does it matter for his 2023 outlook?

The Shane Steichen Effect

Anthony Richardson enters arguably the most exciting offense among the three first-round quarterbacks, and that's because of Shane Steichen. Steichen has been in the NFL since the 2011 season with the San Diego Chargers. Still, he began to get recognition as one of the more creative young minds in the league while serving as offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers and Justin Herbert in 2020. His recent stop as offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles vaulted him into head coaching races, landing him the job in Indianapolis. Steichen has many staples in his offenses, but crafting the offense around the quarterback's skill set is his best ability.

In 2020, Steichen took advantage of Justin Herbert's massive arm, allowing him to attack the deep third of the field efficiently and keeping Herbert in comfortable situations. In 2021 with Jalen Hurts, he shifted his offensive philosophy to incorporate designed quarterback runs and more quick-game while keeping the downfield attack alive. In 2022, he doubled down on that philosophy, designing fewer rush attempts for Hurts per game but creating space for him to scramble efficiently. Steichen began to take advantage of the intermediate areas of the field, particularly the middle of the field, where Jalen Hurts showed more comfort in throwing against zone concepts. Designing an offense tailored to the quarterback's skill set is always a blueprint for success, and Steichen is one of the best at it. But what does that mean for Anthony Richardson?

Jalen Hurts ran the ball 11 times per regular-season game in 2022. Despite his elite athleticism, Richardson ran the ball just 8.58 times per game in 2022. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt over his three-year career at Florida, though that decreased each year he earned more rushing volume. While Richardson must grow as a passer to succeed in the NFL holistically, Steichen will likely build the offense around the rushing attack. Philadelphia had the fourth-highest rushing play percentage in the NFL in 2022 and averaged 33.2 rushing attempts per game. The only team in the last half-decade that ran the ball with that much volume was the Baltimore Ravens. With Jonathan Taylor stationed in the backfield with Richardson and no Ezekiel Elliott or DeVonta Smith to filter passing volume through, the Colts could quickly become one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL.

While rushing output is not the end-all, be-all for fantasy performance, every quarterback with over 100 rush attempts finished inside the top-12 in points per game in the last two seasons. Cam Newton in 2020 and Colin Kaepernick in 2014 are the only two examples of 100-attempt rushing quarterbacks finishing outside the top-12 in points per game over the last decade. One-hundred rush attempts over an entire season would be 5.88 attempts per game, nearly half of what Steichen gave Hurts in 2022. Assuming the heavy use of the QB run game, Richardson's rushing yardage alone should give him at least 70 additional fantasy points that most quarterbacks aren't achieving. The average output from the QB12 over the last five years is 276.9 fantasy points. Various combinations of underwhelming passing stats could get Richardson to that number (2500 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and ten interceptions is a plausible example), but expecting underwhelming passing stats may be off-base.

Steichen's ability to craft an efficient passing attack and mask the quarterback's deficiencies is another one of his strengths. His utilization of play action, whether that be from under center or shotgun, run-pass option (RPO) concepts, helped simplify the defensive looks for Jalen Hurts. Richardson's disciplined eyes in the RPO game and the more talented wideouts around him should allow for more efficient quick-game work, despite his weakness in that area at Florida. Richardson excelled at throwing to the middle of the field and deep, two areas Hurts attacked in 2022. While the rushing attack offers the most reason for excitement, Richardson should create explosives through the deep ball that allow for more light boxes and open running lanes. Indeed, consistent accuracy will determine Richardson's upside as a passer. But there's enough film suggesting Richardson can develop into that to believe he has a higher passing floor than his Florida passing stats indicate.

While expecting Jalen Hurts-level performances out of Anthony Richardson in 2023 is unwarranted, usage similarities give fantasy managers reason to believe Richardson will be a weekly fantasy starter following his capture of the Colts' starting job.