Be Prepared
It's easy to tell you to buy into De'Von Achane, Brian Robinson, or James Conner. It's an entirely different matter for you to successfully do so.
I didn't pick these three running backs for this feature just because they are top-10 fantasy producers with the skills to sustain this production throughout the year. All three are playing behind healthy offensive lines that have executed well against quality defenses. And all three teams have a good scheme for their ground game.
The line play and schemes of these three teams should have you shopping for the players on their running back depth charts. If you have room to add 1-2 of these backs and wait, that's great.
If you can only add one option, do it at least until you have to drop the player because you have a more pressing need. In that case, add him or another option back when you do have the luxury.
At the very worst, be vigilant about monitoring the health of the three backs and offensive lines that I'm profiling today. One player can make a huge difference for your squad down the stretch. As long as the Dolphins', Cardinals', and Commanders' lines remain healthy, you have a shot to capitalize on a productive player few in your league will see coming.
Let's begin with Miami, the most exciting offense in the NFL, thanks to an unheard-of quartet of speedsters — Achane, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle — often seeing the field at the same time and overwhelming the competition. Even Robbie Chosen, who is back on the Dolphins' practice squad this week, is considered a speedster many teams would covet, and he's a distant fifth compared to the starters who stretch opposing defenses vertically and horizontally.
The Dolphins Are Creating Punt Return Lanes for Achane and Mostert
I shared this schematic scenario for Cordarrelle Patterson's career year in Atlanta two years ago. An unsuccessful starter at wide receiver, Patterson became a journeyman gadget option on offense coveted most for his elite return ability.
After seeing Bill Belichick generate isolated success with Patterson, Arthur Smith built on what Belichick was doing by featuring Patterson on gap plays. The prominent feature of gap-style blocking is a blocker who leads the way into a crease that the rest of his teammates work to open. Most gap plays are designed to open one hole, and the runner's job is to find his way to it and through it.
Zone plays, in contrast, give the runner multiple options, and it's the runner's job to diagnose the defense and make a decision on where to go based on how they manipulate the defense behind the line of scrimmage.
Zone plays depend more on the back to do a lot of work behind the line. Gap plays depend more on the linemen to set up the crease. This is a little more simplistic of an explanation than the reality, but you get the basic idea.
Patterson ran a lot of gap plays to the edge that, when executed well, the wide rushing lanes simulated the lanes Patterson would see on punt returns. With Patterson's size, speed, and open-field vision and movement, he had a career year.
Travel 660 miles south of Atlanta, and you'll find that Miami has not only figured out how to create punt return lanes for its running backs on the perimeter but also how to do it with inside runs.
As you just watched, the Dolphins' combination of world-class speed and scheme has forced opposing defenses to overreact in every direction. Miami's film shows that they are self-scouting and implementing plays that provide a counter punch to the perimeter run game.
While Achane's gaudy start is mostly due to his speed and a scheme that leverages the speed of Hill, Mostert, and Waddle to open obscene creases no NFL running back sees as often, don't think that Achane is a one-dimensional fad that will fade from fantasy relevance once opponents figure out how to better defend the Dolphins.
As you saw above, Achane may not be a powerful back, but he has a feel for setting up rushing lanes in tight confines and his pad level and footwork help him get what's blocked for him and a little more. Even if the NFL finds a way to shut down the plays that have the Dolphins running with abandon, Achane should remain a productive committee option who sees his value decline to flex-production, at worst.
Don't anticipate this happening for at least the next 6-8 weeks. Beyond the possibility of 1-2 opponents having limited success with stopping this rushing attack, I don't expect a massive decline for this rushing attack in 2023 if the offensive line stays relatively intact.
If that's the case, Achane and Mostert should continue delivering strong starter production for fantasy GMs. If Achane falters, Mostert can handle Achane's role while Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed, or rookie Chris Brooks takes over Mostert's role of Mr. Inside when Achane is on the field with him.
Look for Wilson and Brooks to have the most upside in that role, and they are likely the cheapest options to target for your bench. Whether it's through free agency or as a throw-in to a trade negotiation, consider Wilson, Brooks, or any of the reserves on these depth charts. If you have to rotate through them, do it, because the scheme, line play, and talent have the potential to align for starter production.
Robinson Is LeGarrette Blount Incarnate
Please, for the health of your team, don't worry about any fantasy or NFL analyst who uses the word plodder to describe runners like Robinson. Speed is the cleavage of the NFL and fantasy football. It reduces individuals to short-sighted and foolish decisions based on superficial factors.
Yes, speed can be awesome (see above), but there's a lot more to running back production. Blount was considered a plodder, but his size, strength, quick and precise feet, patience to set up creases, receiving skills, and fluid hips made him a productive fantasy starter for multiple seasons which our hobby routinely drafted outside the 10th round.
Robinson's game matches the qualities I shared about Blount's. He also has a solid offensive line with a former running back as the team's offensive coordinator. The Commanders' ground game matched up well against the stout Bills' defense. If Sam Howell hadn't underestimated the range of the Bills' linebackers in pass coverage, we might have seen a lot more of Robinson.
Like the Dolphins, the Commanders have a favorable schedule of opponents where their ground game should thrive. If the line remains intact, but Robinson falters, Antonio Gibson is a proven talent with great athletic ability to break plays wide open.
Gibson may not have the favor of his staff because he makes risky decisions that can take his team off schedule, but he's a skilled receiver who will also factor in the Commanders' screen game, and he should earn enough touches to generate production that approaches or beats his two years of top-15 value earlier in his career.
If Gibson isn't easily available via trade or free agency, rookie Chris Rodriguez aspires to develop into a Spencer Ware-Jordan Howard type. Rodriguez is not as skilled as Ware or Howard, but if the line is playing well, he could earn the volume to become a worthwhile starter.
The Cardinals Are The Southwest Chapter of the Nick Chubb Browns
Oh, I remember when James Conner was seen as expendable in Pittsburgh.
Imagine who the Steelers could have drafted if they didn't send Conner packing and replaced him with Najee Harris, the 24th pick overall. Here are four that come to mind:
- Joe Tryon
- Jevon Holland
- Landon Dickerson
- Gregory Rousseau
I'd also add Nick Bolton and Pete Werner to the list, although they were drafted after the Steelers' took Pat Freiermuth in Round Two. I digress with my trolling of the Steelers, Conner remains a top-15 talent at his position when paired with a line that gives him room to operate and an offense that features him as a check-down receiver.
Arizona is doing just that with its commitment to the ground game. When watching Conner's film, you'll see former Browns' quarterback coach Drew Petzing implementing bigger alignments and compressed boxes to get the most from its rushing attack. This includes sets with three tight ends and rookie receiver Michael Wilson, the corps' best blocker.
The results have been strong throughout September, including an impressive performance against the Dallas Cowboys' athletic defense, where Arizona did a great job of limiting the disruptive presence of Micah Parsons in the run game. The Cardinals' offense has set the stage for Conner's veteran talents to come to the fore. He's skilled at setting up creases, staying upright through traffic that trips up more explosive backs, and forcing opposing defenders to work hard to bring him down.
Although the box scores will tell you a false narrative thus far, the Keaontay Ingram is worth having on the back end of your rosters despite limited touches and modest production. I've seen enough on tape this year to recommend him as a potentially valuable contingency option in case of a Conner injury.
It won't hurt to keep tabs on UDFA Emari Demercado, who has split a similar total of snaps with Ingram during the past two weeks. Neither has stood out in the box score, but I'd continue leaning toward Ingram for now with the potential for Demercado to see committee work with Ingram as the lead if Conner gets hurt.
Reserve Prioritization
Based on skills/talent, here's the order in which I'd consider these reserves:
- Ingram
- Wilson
- Gibson
- Brooks
- Rodriguez
- Ahmed
- Demercado
Based on the combination of skills/talent and scheme...
- Wilson
- Gibson
- Ingram
- Brooks
- Ahmed
- Rodriguez
- Demarcado
The players in bold are options I'd consider for the end of rosters with at least 20-25 spots. Keep them in mind as players as inexpensive preemptive bids from your free agent pool or options in first-come-first-serve periods. You may also have an easier time acquiring them as add-ons to trades if you're having a difficult time acquiring the running back talent you desire who can help you immediately.
Ahmed earned a spot ahead of Brooks, but I believe it has more to do with Ahmed having more proven experience. Don't be surprised if Brooks jumps ahead of Ahmed with more good showings while Ahmed recovers from a groin injury. If not, move Ahmed ahead of Brooks and keep behind Ingram on both lists.
One of the most underestimated paths to building a dangerous team out of a struggling squad in September is simply not giving up and knowing all the angles that could help you improve dramatically as the fantasy landscape shifts due to injury.
Whether it's acquiring the fantasy contributors from these three backfields or playing the waiting game with the serves, these are angles worth exploiting. After all, luck is the product of preparation. Do the work to be prepared, even if the results aren't immediate.
Good luck!
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