NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

These teams are moving in opposite directions, and the Cowboys are widely expected to win easily tonight (-9). The Seahawks aren’t exactly tackling dummies, but Dallas has won a stunning seven games by 20+ here in 2023.

That tells us that (a) the Cowboys’ stars will be wildly popular in DFS contests, and that (b) it will be hard to profit much from lineups crammed full of them. Tonight’s successes and failures will come from player choice strategy.

Injury Roundup

The Seahawks will likely be without running back Ken Walker III (oblique) for the second straight week; he’s listed as doubtful tonight.

The Cowboys are remarkably healthy; all 53 active players practiced on Wednesday.

Captain Consideration

1. Dak Prescott

2. Tony Pollard

3. CeeDee Lamb

4. Zach Charbonnet

5. DK Metcalf

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith (FLEX)

Most of us projected a 2023 dip for Smith, and while it hasn’t been a devastating one, it’s here. He’s fallen off noticeably in completion rate, yardage rate, touchdown rate, turnover rate, adjusted yardage, and QBR. And from a fantasy standpoint, he’s only useful when there’s hefty volume. Smith has cleared 20.0 DraftKings points just twice here in 2023 – and he threw 40+ passes both times. It’s hard to imagine him side-stepping this Dallas defense, at least while the game is in doubt,

Running Back

Zach Charbonnet (CPT or FLEX)
DeeJay Dallas (FLEX)

On Thanksgiving night, Charbonnet finally drew his first start in place of Walker, turning 18 touches into 58 yards. (He likely would’ve been much more efficient kicking things off against a different defense.) It was encouraging to see the commitment to him as a lead back, and it gives him sneaky Captain value tonight, despite the tough matchup. He’s a skilled pass-catcher, with 14 catches over the past 3 weeks, and he’s on the affordable side for a volume-dominant lead back.

DeeJay Dallas carries some theoretical value as the clear-cut No. 2, but don’t expect much. Charbonnet is the bell cow at the moment; Dallas claimed just 7 of 56 snaps in Week 12. He’s yet to touch the ball more than three times in a game.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf (CPT or FLEX)
Tyler Lockett (CPT or FLEX)
Jaxson Smith-Njigba (FLEX)

Metcalf and Lockett make for one of football’s premier real-life duos. In fantasy, though, they’re only as valuable as their scheme and their quarterback allow them to be. Smith’s inconsistency robs them of truly great ceilings: Metcalf has topped 100 yards only once, back in Week 3, while Lockett has landed south of 55 in 5 of his last 8 games.

Still, either would make for a fine pivot from Lamb. If a shootout – or at least garbage time – were to break out, who else would Smith look for? The duo has combined to draw 45% of team targets, and that’s with Metcalf sitting a game. The Dallas secondary is stout, but it’s also a gambling one. Metcalf is capable of winning downfield, while Lockett and Smith-Njigba can produce from the slot in any game script. Washington’s Curtis Samuel produced 22.0 DraftKings points last week from the slot, while Keenan Allen (21.5) and Adam Thielen (15.4) have also posted strong lines underneath.

Tight End

Noah Fant (FLEX)
Will Dissly (FLEX)

Fant leads the depth chart in snaps, but not by a particularly wide margin. The former first-rounder has yet to produce more than 2 receptions or 32 yards in a game since Week 4 (he went 2 for 63 that day). Dissly makes for a great story, sticking around into Year 6 despite multiple season-ending injuries, but he’s also not a viable option to surprise tonight.

Under the Radar

Kenny McIntosh (FLEX)

McIntosh will be active as the No. 3 back, and there’s always a chance the rookie nudges past DeeJay Dallas and steals a few third-down reps from Charbonnet.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (CPT or FLEX)

Prescott is squarely in the race for fantasy MVP. He’s posted 31+ DraftKings points in 4 of his last 5 games, proving that one can post big full-game numbers in the part-time shadow of a blowout. The Cowboys won three of those big Prescott games by 35, 23, and 23 points. Simply put, Prescott is red-hot and absolutely feasting on everyone put in front of him. Even the ferocious Eagles watched him produce 374 yards and 3 touchdowns just a month ago.

Running Back

Tony Pollard (CPT or FLEX)
Rico Dowdle (FLEX)

Thankfully for the fantasy world, this has become a manageable, two-man backfield, with only Pollard and Dowdle taking snaps. Pollard has yet to shake his forgettable first season as a fantasy RB1. That said, he’s the clear-cut lead man, taking on 76% of running back snaps and 67% of opportunities (carries plus targets). He’s run exceptionally well over the last two weeks, and these Seahawks have slipped badly against the run. Over their last four weeks, they’ve allowed running backs to average a stunning 38.0 points a game. That makes Pollard a sneaky Captain play based on projected rostering – perhaps even shreweder than Lamb or Prescott.

Dowdle is little more than a change-of-pace back. But he’s a moderately efficient one, and he did take on 22 opportunities in the Week 10-11 blowouts. Should Pollard go down mid-game, Dowdle would immediately become a focal point.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (CPT or FLEX)
Brandin Cooks (CPT or FLEX)
Michael Gallup (FLEX)
Jalen Tolbert (FLEX)

Unsurprisingly, Lamb has come to thoroughly dominate this room, laying claim to a 27% team target share. He’s produced 11+ catches and 150+ yards in 3 of 5 games, and he’s scored 5 times over that span. Numbers like those will fetch top-level rostering, of course; virtually everyone in your tournament will roster him somewhere. The key will be Captaining: will he outshine all other scorers? And even if he does – how much do you (and the other 30% of the field who Captained him) truly stand to benefit?

I’d much rather Flex Lamb and Captain someone else – Prescott, or perhaps even Cooks. The well-traveled Cooks isn’t utilized very consistently: his 10-target Week 10 marked just the second time all year he’s drawn more than five. But he’s showing up situationally, pacing both Lamb and Gallup in both air yards attempted and overall success rate. Gallup gets even less attention; he’s cleared 30 yards only twice in 7 games, and one of those grand totals was 31.

Tight End

Jake Ferguson (FLEX)

Ferguson’s per-game numbers don’t pop at all: 3.6 receptions, 38.3 yards. But his opportunity is stout and growing, with a 15% target share dating back to Week 8. He’s also a bona fide red-zone threat, having drawn 7 targets from inside the 10. It’s helped him to find the end zone on 4 of his 40 catches.

Under the Radar

Luke Schoonmaker (FLEX)

The rookie is seeing nearly half the offensive snaps at this point. He’s drawn just 13 targets all year, but 5 have come in the red zone – and 2 produced touchdowns.

Defenses and Kickers

By the trends, only the Dallas defense is in play here. Prescott has only been sacked on 5.6% of his dropbacks, sixth-best in football – and the Seahawks don’t force many takeaways.

The more intriguing question is at kicker. The Cowboys offense is humming along, but it’s only middle-of-the-pack (16th) at scoring touchdowns from the red zone. 28-year-old rookie Brandon Aubrey is perfect on 22 field goal attempts thus far, and he’s kicked 2 or more in 8 of 11 games.