Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | AUG 15 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kareem Hunt | RB | FA | 182.7 | 26.4 |
| 2 | Tank Dell | WR | HOU | 188.5 | 25.0 |
| 3 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 191.1 | 15.4 |
| 4 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 183.9 | 15.0 |
| 5 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 155.5 | 13.6 |
| 6 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 107.9 | 9.1 |
| 7 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 196.0 | 8.6 |
| 8 | Deuce Vaughn | RB | DAL | 207.8 | 7.0 |
| 9 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 175.4 | 6.7 |
| 10 | Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | 170.9 | 6.5 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 08/08/2023-08/15/23***
Kareem Hunt as the number one riser is laughable to me. This is clearly based on all the reports of him meeting with the Saints and the Colts and yet still not finding a home. The speculation lifted his ADP up two full rounds, yet he still remains unsigned. He is a big avoid for me right now in my drafts, and even if he signs with a team, I can't see his ADP rising all that much at its current cost.
At this time of the year, we are also seeing some rookies jump up the board, and there are four names that cracked the top ten this week: Tank Dell, Luke Musgrave, Deuce Vaughn, and Jalin Hyatt. All four players have created some preseason buzz as they made plays during their preseason games, and all continue to have positive vibes during training camps. I like all four of these names, and even with rising ADP, I don't see a reason not to draft them.
The other names on the list are Jake Ferguson, who also looked impressive in preseason action and looks like the clear TE1 in Dallas now. Kenneth Gainwell did not play in the team's first preseason game, but that seems to be an indication that he is the team's lead back. As speculation continues to grow on that, his ADP continues to rise. Hunter Henry continues to gel well with Mac Jones as one of his favorite targets, and his ADP continues to bump up because of it. The last two names - Khalil Herbert and Zamir White - had impressive preseason games where they both scored touchdowns. At this time of the year, you will see ADP be affected by what happens on the field in these preseason games the most on why ADP goes up and down.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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