Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and DRAFTERS, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With DRAFTERS releasing their main event tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on DRAFTERS. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are examining NFL players, specifically their Average Draft Position (ADP). We continually strive to identify players of value in our drafts and avoid those who may be overvalued.
Each week, I will use updated DRAFTERS data to show the APD movement of the top risers and fallers on the site. ADP is often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players, and the result will be a shift in the ADP market
Let's look at last week's data (7/22-7/29) and find the top 10 Risers and Fallers for the past week:
DRAFTERS Weekly Best Ball Risers
Top 10 Risers
| Position | Player | Team | ADP Rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Nick Chubb | HOU | 25.9 |
| TE | Elijah Arroyo | SEA | 22.7 |
| RB | Woody Marks | HOU | 20.8 |
| WR | Allen Lazard | NYJ | 16.3 |
| WR | Keandre Lambert-Smith | LAC | 11.0 |
| WR | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | 10.1 |
| WR | Jalen McMillan | TB | 9.8 |
| TE | AJ Barner | SEA | 9.6 |
| RB | Dylan Sampson | CLE | 9.3 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | TB | 8.8 |
Other names on the rise (11-20 ADP Risers): Jalen Royals, Anthony Richardson Sr., Stefon Diggs, Kyle Pitts, Tank Bigsby, Roman Wilson, Devaughn Vele, Omarion Hampton, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Hollywood Brown.
The Risers Takeaways: The big news of the week is out in Houston with Joe Mixon continuing to deal with an injury that looks to be more serious than once thought. Mixon could be held out to start the season, and now we are seeing the market react to this news, with Nick Chubb and Woody Marks as two of the top three risers in ADP this week. Chubb is up over two rounds, while Marks is being drafted in the Round 17/18 range.
We are seeing some rookies make flashes early in camp, as evidenced by the five rookies in the top 10 risers: Woody Marks, Elijah Arroyo, Keandre Lambert-Smith, Dylan Sampson, and Emeka Egbuka. These are all names that have opportunity in front of them on their team's depth chart and also have the talent to back it up. Arroyo sees a big rise with the Seahawks' release of Noah Fant. Sampson is on the rise because Judkins is dealing with a possible suspension. Egbuka is rising as we have negative Chris Godwin news about multiple surgeries.
Other names on the list this week are Allen Lazard, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen McMillan, and AJ Barner. Barner sees a rise directly because of the Noah Fant release. McMillan gets a bump with Chris Godwin's status still in limbo, Turpin is getting buzz early in camp with seeing time in the backfield, and Lazard is more of just a depth chart guy who is set to be a top-three wide receiver in New York.
DRAFTERS Weekly Best Ball Fallers
Top 10 Fallers
| Position | Player | Team | ADP Fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | -21.4 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | HOU | -16.5 |
| RB | Najee Harris | LAC | -16.4 |
| TE | Darren Waller | MIA | -16.1 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | -14.4 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | -12.8 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | ATL | -11.3 |
| QB | Justin Fields | NYJ | -11.2 |
| QB | Daniel Jones | IND | -10.8 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | -9.9 |
Other names on the fall (11-20 ADP Fallers): Jonnu Smith, Matthew Stafford, Jaxson Dart, Xavier Legetter, Tyler Higbee, Jaylen Wright, Calvin Austin III, Cedric Tillman, Jalen Coker, and Isaiah Likely.
The Faller Takeaways: If a player has negative news this week, they are likely on the faller list. At running back, the top three fallers are Quinshon Judkins, Joe Mixon, and Najee Harris. Judkins is still unsigned by the Browns and is in line for a suspension from the NFL once he is signed. Mixon has an injury that has the start of the 2025 season in question, and we still have no news on the severity of Harris' eye injury.
Darren Waller is the lone tight end in the top 10, and with the Dolphins bringing in Noah Fant for a workout, it makes sense. Waller has been out of football for a while now and is still trying to get back into football shape. At quarterback, we have Justin Fields dealing with a toe injury that saw his ADP drop by a full round. That is a great value and time to buy Fields right now. Daniel Jones is falling now that we have positive news on Anthony Richardson Sr. We have a full-on quarterback battle to determine who will start in Week 1.
Wide receiver has four names on the list this week: Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Darnell Mooney, and Rashee Rice. These are all big names, but at the same time, they all have question marks entering the season. Godwin is still working his way back, and reports came out that he had an additional surgery. Aiyuk is uncertain whether he will be ready for Week 1 or start the season on the PUP list. Mooney is also uncertain for Week 1 after suffering an injury this past week, but the odds of him being ready are probably better than the others on the list. Rice is back to full health but is in line to be handed a suspension, which could be anywhere from 3-6 games.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Darnell Mooney ATL - Status for Week 1 uncertain.
- QB Justin Fields NYJ - Back at practice after the toe injury.
- RB Tank Bigsby JAX - Getting first team reps early in camp.
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson PIT - Officially let go by the Steelers.
- WR Treylon Burks TEN - Moves to injured reserve.
- RB Najee Harris LAC - Still no timetable for practice return.
- TE Isaiah Likely BAL - Injures ankle, out a few weeks.
- RB MarShawn Lloyd GB - Dealing with a groin injury.
- WR Luther Burden III CHI - Participating in team drills.
- RB Kenny McIntosh SEA - Was placed on IR with a knee injury.
- WR Courtland Sutton DEN - Signs a four-year contract extension.
- WR Noah Brown WAS - Practicing without setbacks.
- WR Noah Fant - Released by the Seahawks.
- WR Ricky Pearsall SF - Activated from PUP
- TE Jake Ferguson DAL - Signs a four-year contract extension.
- RB Joe Mixon HOU - Dealing with injury that could hold him out the start of the season.
- WR D.J. Chark Jr ATL - Signs with the Falcons.
- TE Erick All Jr. CIN - Unlikely to play in 2025
- QB Anthony Richardson Sr. IND - Back practicing without any setbacks.
- TE Kyle Pitts ATL - Praised by his quarterback as they show chemistry with each other.
- WR KaVontae Turpin DAL - Getting work in the backfield.
Best Ball Industry News
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 million Best Ball tournament with a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 14,400/140,004 full, and has seen 6,600 new entries in the last week.
Drafters has also released their $3 Best Ball Championship Mini II, which is now 38,000/46,140 full, with 10,100 new entries this week. It has a $25,000 prize to first place.
Drafters also just released a Superflex tournament with a $10 buy-in that has a $25,000 prize to first place. It is currently 600/13,992 full.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for six-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on DRAFTERS and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2025. I have made mistakes over the years, but have also done a few things correctly. I will always share my knowledge from both perspectives. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
New users at DRAFTERS: use promo code "FOOTBALLGUYS" for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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