Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our powers of prediction against the market. The two keys to success are picking the best players to target and taking advantage of correlations where we can increase our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing "Higher" or "Lower" on at least two player props. If you choose successfully, this is the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
Week 5 Review
Overall Picks (6-5 on the week, 32-21 on the season)
Overall Units (+3, +1 on the season)
- Our 6X Dolphins-Giants play hit. Tua Tagovailoa was the Week 5 free square (0.5 total yards). Wan'Dale Robinson had more than 3.5 receptions (five), and De'Von Achane easily topped 49.5 rushing yards (151).
- The four-way rookie prop had a couple of hits. Tyjae Spears went higher on rushing yards (23.5) with 34, and Josh Downs easily topped his receiving yardage prop (33.5) with 97 yards. We also had a couple of misses. Bijan Robinson's 12 receiving yards came in below his prop (29.5), and Michael Wilson also came up short of his receiving total (37.5) with just 18 yards.
- The Jets-Broncos plays did not hit, with Breece Hall dominating the game. We thought the Jets offense would be more balanced, but Zach Wilson attempted just 26 passes, going under his 29.5 total. Allen Lazard (34.5) also came up just short with 33 receiving yards, and rumors of Marvin Mims (22.5 receiving yards) were untrue, as he managed just four yards. We were on the right side of Dalvin Cook's rushing yardage, as he went for just 23 yards.
Lessons learned: It was a solid but unspectacular week. The two Pick 'Ems that focused on single games look like +EV plays with the benefit of hindsight, even though only one of the two hit. Taking advantage of those positive correlations is a big key to overcoming the odds against us due to the payout structure. We are going to lean heavily into these same game correlations for our Week 6 picks.
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