Underdog Pick 'Em Week 11

Photo: Tim Fuller, USA Today Sports

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Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing "Higher" or "Lower" on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 10 Review

Overall Picks (8-5 on the week, 73-58-1 on the season)
Overall Units (+7 last week, +25 Units on the season)

(+9 Units, 4-0) Lions-Chargers The Chargers passing stack was a hit. Justin Herbert (260.5) threw for 323 yards. Austin Ekeler (33.5) had 48 receiving yards, and Keenan Allen (79.5) went off for 175 yards. We brought it back on the other side with Amon-Ra St. Brown (6.5), who had eight receptions.

(-1 Unit, 2-2) Steelers-Packers. George Pickens (42.5) and Najee Harris (8.5) both hit their receiving yardage overs, but Kenny Pickett (204.5) was awful and came nowhere near his passing total. Aaron Jones (53.5) also came in under on his rushing total.

(-1 Unit, 2-3) Titans-Buccaneers Baker Mayfield (241.5) easily hit his passing yardage over, and Rachaad White (24.5) also blew past his receiving total. However, it was a rough game for Cade Otton (30.5), who came nowhere close to going over. On the Titans side, Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins failed to hit their overs despite a pass-heavy game script.

Lessons learned: We stay red-hot, with a fourth-straight winning week. The goal has been to identify the correlated game stacks with the best chance of going over together. It has been working like a charm. Let's stick with the plan.

Week 11 Picks

As the saying goes, "If it ain't broke…" We have been running hot on same-game Pick 'Ems with all selections Higher. We can tilt the odds back into our favor by taking advantage of same-game correlations.

Bears-Lions 10X

This is my favorite game of the week for fantasy upside. The Bears offense was heating up before Justin Fields' injury, and the Lions defense has shown signs of cracks in the last few weeks. The Lions offense has been a juggernaut when playing at home. The specific Pick 'Em we are going with here is based upon a potential game script in which the Lions have at least moderate success running the ball, and the Bears put up solid passing numbers on the other side.

Justin Fields

Higher than 210.5 Passing Yards

• Fields went down with an injury in Week 6. In the two games before he went down, he threw for 617 yards and 8 touchdowns.
• Over the last three weeks, the Lions have given up 806 passing yards. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Lamar Jackson had thrown for more than 237 yards just one time — the 357 yards he put up against the Lions.

Always fun going on @NBCSChicago to talk @ChicagoBears and fantasy football.

Assuming Justin Fields is back this week, he and DJ Moore are both must-starts.

Check out the full video to see my buys, sells, waiver wire pickups, and fantasy MVP so far.

🔗: https://t.co/JTC3JNtrid pic.twitter.com/H8VNQTeXAD

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) November 15, 2023

DJ Moore

Higher than 64.5 Receiving Yards

• In his last two full games with Fields, Moore had 361 receiving yards (180.5 per game).
• The Lions are fresh off giving up 175 receiving yards to Keenan Allen.
• Moore has seen eight or more targets in five of the last seven games.

Darnell Mooney

Higher than 26.5 Receiving Yards

• Mooney has had at least 30 receiving yards in four of the past five games. He has topped 30 yards in 67% of the games he has played 30% or more of the snaps on the season.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Higher than 41.5 Rushing Yards

• In the four games Gibbs has played at least half of the snaps, he has at least 68 rushing yards in each. In his four full games, he has averaged 94.0 rushing yards per game.
• Gibbs has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his last four games.
• Last week, Gibbs played 58% of the snaps and earned 19 opportunities (14 carries and 5 targets), even with David Montgomery healthy.

Detroit Lions Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over His Last 4 Games:

54 Carries - 337 Yards - 4 TD - 5.7 YPC
21 Receptions - 141 Yards - 6.7 YPC

75 Touches...478 Yards...6.3 Yards Per Touch. pic.twitter.com/xs4PsaEEea

— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 15, 2023