Underdog Pick 'Em Week 16

Dan Hindery's Underdog Pick 'Em Week 16 Dan Hindery Published 12/22/2023

Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

  • Two picks = 3X
  • Three picks = 6X
  • Four picks = 10X
  • Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 15 Review

  • Overall Picks (5-5-1 on the week, 102-90-2 on the season)
  • Overall Units (-3 last week, +9 Units on the season)

(2-1, -1 Unit) Broncos-Lions 6X This one was close. We needed another 1.5 fantasy points from Courtland Sutton. Jahmyr Gibbs (12.65) easily topped his fantasy points prop with 23.8. Russell Wilson (16.75) barely reached his fantasy points total with 17.5. Sutton (11.05) came up just short with 9.6 fantasy points.

( 2-1-1, -1 Unit) Steelers-Colts 10X Despite getting injured, Zack Moss (13.5) hit his receiving yardage prop with 20 yards. Jaylen Warren (17.5) also hit, with five catches for 28 yards. Unfortunately, Najee Harris (9.5) did not have a single catch. Pat Freiermuth (3.0) was a push, with exactly three receptions.

(1-3, -1 Unit) Rams-Commanders 10X This Pick 'Em wasn't even close. Neither was the game. Sam Howell (269.5) had the worst game of his career (102 yards). With the Washington offense struggling, both passing games struggled. Puka Nacka (66.5) was held to 50 yards, while Jahan Dotson (32.5) was held to 12 receiving yards. The game script only benefited one member of our Pick 'Em — Kyren Williams (89.5) carried it 27 times for 152 yards.

Lessons learned: We had a good run mid-season run taking overs in Commanders games. Over the past two weeks, Sam Howell has averaged 114.5 passing yards per game. He looks terrible right now. Time to retire Commanders Pick 'Ems.

Week 16 Picks

Bengals-Steelers 10X

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

More by Dan Hindery

 

NFFC High-Stakes Drafting

Dan Hindery

Everything you need to know to try to win $250,000 in the $350 Online Championship and an introduction to our new NFFC tools

08/03/25 Read More
 

Superflex Draft Strategy, by the Numbers

Dan Hindery

How to Attack 2025 Superflex Drafts to Maximize Value

08/21/25 Read More
 

Optimal First-Round Strategy for NFFC Playoff Contests

Dan Hindery

A simulation-based look at which players matter most under the multiplier format

01/07/26 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January

Dan Hindery

Quantifying long-term player values for dynasty leagues.

01/06/26 Read More
 

What Worked, What Didn't, and What It Means for 2026

Dan Hindery

Lessons learned from analyzing the drafts of Footballguys Bowl Playoff Teams.

01/05/26 Read More
 

FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 18

Dan Hindery

A position-by-position analysis of the top tournament plays for this week's main slate on FanDuel.

01/03/26 Read More