Underdog Pick 'Em Week 16

Photo: Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports

Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 15 Review

• Overall Picks (5-5-1 on the week, 102-90-2 on the season)
• Overall Units (-3 last week, +9 Units on the season)

(2-1, -1 Unit) Broncos-Lions 6X This one was close. We needed another 1.5 fantasy points from Courtland Sutton. Jahmyr Gibbs (12.65) easily topped his fantasy points prop with 23.8. Russell Wilson (16.75) barely reached his fantasy points total with 17.5. Sutton (11.05) came up just short with 9.6 fantasy points.

( 2-1-1, -1 Unit) Steelers-Colts 10X Despite getting injured, Zack Moss (13.5) hit his receiving yardage prop with 20 yards. Jaylen Warren (17.5) also hit, with five catches for 28 yards. Unfortunately, Najee Harris (9.5) did not have a single catch. Pat Freiermuth (3.0) was a push, with exactly three receptions.

(1-3, -1 Unit) Rams-Commanders 10X This Pick 'Em wasn't even close. Neither was the game. Sam Howell (269.5) had the worst game of his career (102 yards). With the Washington offense struggling, both passing games struggled. Puka Nacka (66.5) was held to 50 yards, while Jahan Dotson (32.5) was held to 12 receiving yards. The game script only benefited one member of our Pick 'Em — Kyren Williams (89.5) carried it 27 times for 152 yards.

Lessons learned: We had a good run mid-season run taking overs in Commanders games. Over the past two weeks, Sam Howell has averaged 114.5 passing yards per game. He looks terrible right now. Time to retire Commanders Pick 'Ems.

Week 16 Picks

Bengals-Steelers 10X

The theory of this play is to ride the hot hand of Jake Browning. He has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL over the past three weeks. With Ja'Marr Chase out, the expectation is that a good chunk of the Bengals receiving production will have to come from Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. On the other side of the ball, it is hard to trust anyone in the Steelers offense. However, the Bengals get absolutely destroyed by opposing tight ends. Pat Freiermuth makes sense as a matchup play.

Jake Browning

Higher than 239.5 Passing Yards

• Over the last three weeks, Browning has averaged 317.7 passing yards per game. He has completed 76.7% of his passes over this stretch. Since Week 13, he leads the NFL in both passing yards and completion percentage.
• The Steelers defense is beaten up. It will be without both starting safeties, with Minkah Fitzpatrick injured and Damontae Kazee suspended for the remainder of the regular season. In their last home game, Pittsburgh game up 240 yards and 3 touchdowns to Bailey Zappe, in an embarrassing loss.

What's led to Jake Browning's success over the last 3 weeks? @heykayadams and I broke it all down today@UpAndAdamsShow pic.twitter.com/FQCiueFZtu

— Matt Hamilton (@MattHamilton25) December 21, 2023

Tee Higgins

Higher than 57.5 Receiving Yards

• Last week's incredible performance by Higgins, which included a strong candidate for Catch of the Year, takes some pressure off of a player who seemed to be in his own head a little bit.
• In 2022, the Bengals were in a similar spot — facing a must-win game on the road at Pittsburgh with Ja'Marr Chase sidelined. Higgins was dominant, with nine catches for 148 yards.

Last year against Pittsburgh without Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins caught 9 passes for 148 yards. Here's every catch from that monstrous performance. pic.twitter.com/z9zagt7c7A

— mike (@bengals_sans) December 22, 2023

Tyler Boyd

Higher than 33.5 Receiving Yards

• Boyd's median receiving yardage total on the season is 38.5. With Ja'Marr Chase out and Boyd playing in his hometown, this sets up as an above-average week for Boyd.
• With Chase out, Boyd is likely to play over 90% of the snaps. He has played over 90% of the snaps three times this season. In those games, he has averaged 6.0 catches and 65.0 yards on 90 targets per game.

Pat Freiermuth

Higher than 26.5 Receiving Yards

• When looking at Freiermuth's game logs this season, one thing is not like the others. He put up a monster line of nine catches for 120 yards in the Week 12 meeting between these teams.
• Over the past four weeks, the Bengals allowed 9-120-0 to Freiermuth, 9-82-1 to Evan Engram, 5-46-0 to Will Mallory, and 6-63-0 to T.J. Hockenson.
• Tight end coverage over the middle of the field is a known weakness of the Bengals defense.

Pat Freiermuth vs the Bengals:

🔘 9 receptions
🔘 120 yards
🔘 32 yards over expected pic.twitter.com/FMLLBGXkJV

— Zachary Smith (@ZacharySmithPGH) November 26, 2023