Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:
- Two picks = 3X
- Three picks = 6X
- Four picks = 10X
- Five picks = 20X
In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.
Week 17 Review
Overall Picks (4-6 on the week, 117-97-2 on the season)
Overall Units (-37 last week, +23 Units on the season)
(2-1, -1 Unit) Lions-Cowboys 6X We had the Dak Prescott lock but only hit half of the Lions picks. Jahmyr Gibbs (48.5) missed his rushing yardage total by 5.5 with 15 carries for 43 yards. Gibbs averaged just 2.87 yards per carry. It was the first time since Week 2 that Gibbs averaged less than 4.5 yards per carry in any game. Jameson Williams (31.5 Rush + Rec Yards) easily went over with 75 total yards (69 receiving and 6 rushing).
(1-3, -1 Unit) Cardinals-Eagles 10X James Conner (13.5) easily hit the over on carries with 26. The correlated Eagles passing stack of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith all went under together. This trio is as highly correlated as any in the NFL.
(1-2, -1 Unit) Dolphins-Ravens 6X Gus Edwards (39.5) had 68 yards on 16 carries. Isaiah Likely (43.5) turned both catches into touchdowns but came up 1.5 yards short of his receiving prop. Tyreek Hill (92.5) came up short with 76 receiving yards on 12 targets.
Lessons learned: Tough week. Perhaps the lesson is not to target overs of players facing the Cowboys or Ravens, even if the totals look favorable. Also, I should have been more skeptical of the Eagles passing game. The Eagles offensive stars seem legitimately frustrated with the offensive playcalling and are running out of time to find answers.
Week 18 Picks
We are going to go with one grab bag of our favorite plays for Week 18.
20X Grab Bag