Every year, there are some fantasy players around whom a consensus forms in the fantasy community–in 2024, the vast majority of fantasy pundits believe that Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers is the No. 1 running back. Many also believe he's the No. 1 player overall this season.
But for every player fantasy analysts agree on, there are three that don't. Type just about any player's name into Google, and you can find arguments both for and against drafting that player at ADP this season.
Never let it be said that we here at Footballguys are averse to some spirited debate. All of the players you are about to read about are being drafted inside the first five rounds of fantasy drafts on average per Footballguys ADP. A case can be made for and against each player being a value in their respective spots.
That's exactly what staffers Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have done, making a case for and against each of these polarizing fantasy options before offering up a verdict of sorts regarding the wisdom of taking those players at ADP.
We'll start things off with an electrifying young signal-caller who struggled to stay on the field last year.
Mr. Harris, the floor is yours.
The Debate Over QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
The Case For, by Bob Harris
Fully cleared after last year's season-ending shoulder surgery, I'm all in here. Richardson scored 17-plus fantasy points in his first three games and posted a 27.6-point performance in Week 4. His 22.1 point-per-game average through Week 4 ranked fourth among all fantasy QBs. Richardson had two top-5 performances in four games last season. He averaged 0.45 fantasy points per offensive snap played, the best rate by any starting quarterback in the league (Josh Allen was next with 0.36). Richardson is admittedly risky, but I'm drafting like last year's production was just the tip of the iceberg.
The Case Against, by Gary Davenport
Richardson's upside is undeniable. When he was on the field last year, he showed the potential to be a fantasy difference-maker—the sort of talent that pulls a Lamar Jackson in 2019 and just wrecks his position in fantasy. But that difference-maker made it through just four games last year, and the reason he only had two top-five finishes in those four games is that he got injured in the other two. If Richardson stays healthy the entire season, he could easily outscore multiple quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him. But he's also going to cost a fifth-rounder on average, and that's a steep price for a quarterback yet to give any indication that 17 games is coming.
The Verdict
There's no “yay” or “nay” with Richardson. He's the walking embodiment of risk/reward—as likely to finish outside the top 20 as first overall at his position. He's also just about the last quarterback off fantasy draft boards on average with a real chance of claiming that top spot.
The Debate Over QB C.J. Stroud, Houston
The Case For, by Gary Davenport
Given Stroud's relative lack of rushing upside (167 yards and three touchdowns last year), fantasy managers drafting him as a top-five fantasy quarterback are essentially saying they believe he can pass for at least 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns—those are the kinds of numbers it would take to return value at his ADP. The thing is, that's not that tall an ask when you consider the loaded offense at Stroud's disposal. Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs at wide receiver. Dalton Schultz at tight end. Joe Mixon at running back. And the league's ninth-best offensive line per FBG's own Matt Bitonti. Add in Stroud's pinpoint accuracy and ability to find the open man, and the second-year pro could lead the league in passing yards this season.
The Case Against, by Bob Harris
We all think Stroud will continue to be fabulous -- his QB5 average draft position reflects that. But we're betting he'll build on a remarkable rookie campaign that saw him finish as fantasy's QB9. Stroud threw for 4,108 and 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He'll go into his second season as a pro with an improved supporting cast. He'll also have an entire regular season and two offseasons of experience running Bobby Slowik's offense. It seems Stroud will likely improve, but when I consider the high-upside players going after him in drafts (starting with Richardson but also including Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, and Jayden Daniels), it's hard to pull the trigger on Stroud at cost.
The Verdict
Harris might be overplaying the price. Even as the fifth quarterback off the board, you can land Stroud in Round 5. Still, without the potential rushing equity of some of the quarterbacks going after him, the argument isn't really about what Stroud can do; it's about the one thing he hasn't done yet.
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