In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
If you're the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy -- in particular, DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, Lamar Jackson, Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, and Sam LaPorta might or might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. We're tossing out the aforementioned top-ranked players and digging deeper to find some borderline players who might outperform expectations.
Conversely, I'll be fading some players you might not be comfortable fading. That's the whole idea.
In And Out Accountability
Since the weekly goal here is highlighting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take some chances. That likely means sorting through some wreckage each week. That said, the damage wasn't too horrible last week, considering the usual Week 1 volatility.
- I was in on Jared Goff, who I claimed would exact revenge on his former team by exceeding his Footballguys 18.7-point projection in this one. He did not. His 11.4 points against the Rams is a miss.
- I was out on Dak Prescott in Cleveland. Congratulations to him on the new contract, but he finished as expected, as a low-end QB2 -- QB18 to be exact, which also matched his Footballguys Projection. Hits all around.
- I was in on Raiders RB Zamir White, claiming he would finish as a locked-in RB2, producing more than our projected 10.9 fantasy points. He did not. He barely got half that, finishing with 6.6 points while taking a backseat to Alexander Mattison. I'll be sifting through the ashes of this miss for some time to come.
- I was out on Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson at Cincinnati, suggesting "those needing to swing bigger might want to look elsewhere" was almost as off as my hopes for White. Stevenson finished as RB7 after running for 120 yards with a touchdown on 25 carries. Huge miss.
- I was in on Titans WR Calvin Ridley at Chicago. I felt like his 11.92 projected points were the floor. I predicated all this on Will Levis taking a step forward. He didn't, and Ridley showed us his basement, finishing as WR52 with 8.0 points. A miss.
- I was out on 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk, citing the matchup with a tough Jets pass defense and a summer-long hold-in as concerns. He was projected for 13.36 points. He finished with 4.8 points. A hit.
- In on Falcons TE Kyle Pitts against the Steelers. I predicted double-digit scoring (he was projected for 9.77 points). Pitts was TE4 with 11.6 points. A hit.
- Out on Browns TE David Njoku, claiming he'd fall short of his projected 10.86 points. He did, but not for the reasons I stated (tough matchup, poor quarterback play). A sprained ankle knocked him out early, and he finished with 8.4 points. Still a hit.
I'll take a .500 opening weekend even if my favorite outlier, Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin, came up short to break the tie. We projected the second-year man to finish with 8.04 points; he fell short of that with 7.8 points against the Seahawks. I blame Bo Nix. And myself . . .
Now, on to Week 2. One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Justin Fields, Pittsburgh at Denver
This is provisional. The first official caveat of this week's column is "if" he plays, Fields is the pick here. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that QB Russell Wilson would be listed as questionable and added that if Wilson's chances of playing were questionable, his chances of starting would be less so. Monitor before finalizing your lineup, but assuming Fields gets the nod, his rushing ability immediately makes him of interest. He's the kind of "Konami Code" player fantasy managers crave.
To that point, Fields carried the ball 14 times in the Steelers' Week 1 win over Atlanta, finishing with 56 rushing yards. More importantly, Fields handled 44 percent of the team's red-zone carries. According to NBC Sports' Matthew Berry, that matters because in 17 career games with 10-plus rushes, Fields averages 21.5 fantasy points per game. While Fields didn't get a touchdown in Atlanta, it's worth noting Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith had a 34-yard rushing touchdown against the Broncos last weekend.
By the way, Fields isn't without passing upside. Any quarterback playing with George Pickens benefits from the third-year receiver's big-play ability (although there are issues this week; see below). Fields only threw 23 passes in Atlanta. Seven went to Pickens, who caught six for 85 yards, including a 40-yarder.
Bottom Line: Fields, who finished as QB7 and QB10, respectively, on a points-per-game basis in his last two years as Chicago's starter. Theo Gremminger over at Player Profiler, noted that Fields had ten top-five weekly finishes in that two-season run as the Bears starter. He's QB10 on the Week 2 Footballguys Projections. Our projection team has him at 18.1 points in this one. I believe Fields will meet or exceed that projection.
Out: C.J. Stroud, Houston vs. Chicago
Two players into the list and already another caveat. As mentioned above, if any of my selections in this column make you uncomfortable, you're not alone. Some of them make me uneasy. It's the whole point of this exercise. And to be crystal clear here: I'm starting Stroud in leagues where I've drafted him. That said if you're playing in a DFS showdown or a one-and-done contest? I'll remind you much of Stroud's success has come on deep passes. In fact, Stroud completed 30 of his 51 deep attempts (58.8 percent) for 1,057 yards and eight touchdowns last year. No other rookie quarterback has completed over 50 percent of such passes or thrown for over 1,000 such yards in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Stroud completed 1 of his 4 deep attempts for 55 yards in Week 1.
But this week, Stroud faces what ESPN's Tristan Cockroft contends is a fully healthy, "underrated" Bears secondary that limited the Tennessee Titans to 104 yards and one touchdown passing in Week 1. Cockroft acknowledges Stroud is not Will Levis. I'll second that, but Chicago's 71.0 percent pass rush win rate last week was the league's best, and Stroud hasn't been at his best when under pressure (five of his 25 career touchdowns and a 44th percentile QBR).
Bottom Line: Look, this one doesn't feel great, and if I hadn't been out on Dak Prescott last week, I might have doubled down on the Dallas QB vs. the Saints this week. But of all the starting-level QBs in our Footballguys Week 2 Projections, Stroud, who we have as QB7 with a projected 19.7 points, has the most challenging path to meeting that ceiling. And that matters for those investing in daily contests. I don't think it's going way out on a limb to believe Stroud falls slightly short of our projection.
Running Back
In: J.K. Dobbins LA Chargers at Carolina
Heading into Week 1, Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman suggested his team would go with the "hot hand" at running back. As I suggested in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Dobbins "spontaneously combusted" in the team's Week 1 drubbing of the Raiders. He carried the ball 10 times for 135 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins also led Chargers backs with 13 routes and three targets. But most telling to me were Dobbins' 46-yard and 61-yard runs, the longest carries since his rookie season.
Dobbins hit 19.2 miles per hour on that 61-yard run, tied with Saquon Barkley for the second-highest speed by a running back in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats.
After injuries limited him to playing in just nine of 51 possible games over the last three seasons, those explosive runs showed that Dobbins is all the way back, and as NFL.com's Dan Parr suggested, with a coaching staff committed to running the ball against a Carolina Panthers defense that gave up 132 rushing yards and two scores to running backs in their opener?
Yes, please.
Bottom Line: Dobbins' Footballguys Projection this week is RB24 with 12.33 points. With the highest per carry average in the NFL over the last four years -- 6.1 per attempt, the idea of Dobbins going up against a defense that gave up the third-most rushing yards, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt, I believe an RB2 finish is the floor.
Out: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay at Detroit
Why do I do this to myself? The last time I went with White as my Out -- against these very same Detroit Lions in the Divisional Playoff -- it didn't go my way. But once again, the matchup is daunting. Per The Lions, who held opposing running backs to the fewest PPR fantasy points last season (266.4), just held Kyren Williams to 2.8 yards per rush in Week 1, and have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs at Ford Field since last season. Cockroft notes that Williams only once exceeded 10 yards rushing on one play and three times was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage.
FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes the Lions run defense continued a trend they started last year against the Rams. They allowed zero explosive runs or missed tackles, with only 1.70 yards after contact per attempt. Last year, Detroit allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
Brown added, "White will be a volume play."
And that's a concern. SI.com's Michael Fabiano believes Bucky Irving looked better as a runner in the opener that White. To that end, Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out that White had a 62.5 percent running back rush share in Week 1, a number he dipped below just once last year. White still saw a 20 percent target share, which will likely continue. But the overall volume is in question.
Bottom Line: White is our RB16 with a projected 13.94 points this week. I have him ranked at the tail end of my RB2 range.
Wide Receiver
In: Malik Nabers, NY Giants at Washington
First, the good news: Nabers, who was limited by some tightness in his leg on Thursday, avoided injury designation on Friday. Now the great news: The rookie wideout gets his first shot at the divisional rival Commanders. Washington's defense gave up 392 yards and four touchdown passes to the Bucs in Week 1. For you, DFS aficionados, that translated to the second-most DraftKings points and third-most FanDuel points to the position last week. Nobody should expect sudden improvement on that side of the ball.
Meanwhile, as The Sporting News' Michael O'Hara noted, "Nabers has it all: Size, speed, strength, and intelligence. He can blast by defensive backs, win 50/50 balls when Daniel Jones underthrows him, or power-blast off the line of scrimmage near the goal line. The breakout game awaits."
While it's true that Wan'Dale Robinson drew 12 targets to Nabers' seven last week, Zachariason pointed out that Nabers ran 10 more routes than any other Giant. Expect the newcomer to be the top target on most weeks.
Are you worried about the quarterback situation? I get it if you are, but I'm not. As ESPN's Dan Graziano noted this week, the Giants are 22-38-1 in games Jones has started for them at quarterback. Five of those wins have come against Washington. Jones hasn't beaten any other team more than twice (and the only two he has beaten twice are the Panthers and Eagles). He has thrown 10 touchdown passes and only three interceptions in seven career games against Washington. In all other games, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 52-39.
Bottom Line: Nabers is our WR15 with a projected 14.39 points. I'm with O'Hara in believing the breakout game awaits. I expect Nabers to finish as a fantasy WR1, and I'm ranking him as such this week at WR11.
Out: George Pickens, Pittsburgh at Denver
I know. A big game from Pickens would go a long way toward helping Fields meet the expectations outlined above. But Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II will have something to say about that. ESPN's Mike Clay expects Surtain to shadow Pickens tomorrow, much like he did DK Metcalf in Week 1, traveling with him on 24 of his 25 routes, including all 23 on the perimeter. Surtain won the battle, as Metcalf was held to catching three of four targets for 29 yards.
To his credit, Pickens fared well against Atlanta's A.J. Terrell last week, but this one will be daunting. Fabiano notes the Broncos and Surtain are especially tough on perimeter receivers at home, allowing five touchdowns and the eighth-fewest fantasy points in their last nine games at Mile High.
Bottom Line: I'd love to see him come up big for Fields, but I believe Pickens will struggle to meet the Footballguys WR18 projection, which has him finishing with 13.98 points after Metcalf was held to 5.9 last week. I rank Pickens as a WR3 instead.
Tight End
In: Trey McBride, Arizona vs. LA Rams
Tight ends were a mess in Week 1. It feels like they might be a mess again this week. So, in this one case, I'm going to play it safe -- while trying to be bold about it.
How do I navigate uncertainty when the fantasy waters get murkiest? Volume.
So, as Cockroft suggests, McBride's usage continued to signal a potentially top-three-at-the-position season upcoming. McBride played 85 percent of the snaps, ran 31 routes (Marvin Harrison Jr. ran 33 while fellow wideout Michael Wilson drew 32), and saw a team-high nine targets in Buffalo last week. That kind of volume bodes well in what Cockroft characterizes as an "extremely favorable" matchup for tight ends against a Rams team that last season struggled mightily against those who ran a good share of their routes out of the slot, as McBride does. CB Quentin Lake is probably the Rams best option in one-on-one coverage, but he'll have his hands full dealing with McBride.
Bottom Line: Philadelphia's Dallas Goedert (25.7 PPR fantasy points), Baltimore's Isaiah Likely (19.3), New Orleans' Juwan Johnson (14.8), and McBride (13.0) were four tight ends who fared well against the Rams while working out of the slot on the regular last year. McBride is TE3 on the Footballguys Projections this week. We have him slated for 12.66 points. I say he hits 15 and finishes as this week's TE1.
Out: Evan Engram, Jacksonville at Cleveland
In his post-game review of the Jaguars' Week 1 loss to Miami, Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke painted a bleak picture. It started with, "Engram played fewer snaps than the vast majority of games last season." In this game, that meant 36 snaps, which were fewer than all the team's top wideouts, Christian Kirk (38), Brian Thomas Jr. (42), and Gabe Davis (50).
Jahnke explained Engram's median game last season was playing 79 percent of Jacksonville's offensive snaps. That number increased to 84 percent of those snaps late in the season when he was one of the elite tight ends. He was not elite against Miami, catching one pass for five yards. NFL Network's Michael F. Florio reminded readers, "Volume elevated Engram to elite status last year." So Engram getting just four targets and 29 air yards as the Jaguars spread the ball around to six different pass-catchers adds to the concern.
It will be tough for Engram to get on track in Cleveland. No defense was tougher against tight ends last season than the Browns, who had the second-lowest yards per reception and the fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Last week, they held Cowboys standout Jake Ferguson to only 4.5 points on five targets before his third-quarter exit due to injury.
Bottom Line: While I'm hopeful Engram's playing time and usage will increase, the Footballguys TE6 projection and the 11.04 points that go with it seem optimistic to me. He won't finish as TE45 again this week, but I'm predicting a finish outside the top 10 at the position.
My Favorite Outlier
Demarcus Robinson, LA Rams at Arizona
Have you heard Puka Nacua will miss at least four games after being placed on injured reserve this week? Sorry. Didn't mean to rub it in. Anyhow, even if Cooper Kupp has another 21-target week like he did in Detroit, somebody else will get some run here. And they're going to get it against an Arizona secondary that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers last week. Tyler Johnson is worth watching in this offense, but Robinson, who caught four of his seven targets for 42 yards in the loss to Detroit, built some chemistry with Matthew Stafford late last season. In six games he played from Week 13 against the Browns until the team's playoff loss, Robinson pulled in 24 catches for 363 yards and four touchdowns.
Bottom line: Robinson is projected to finish as WR43 this week. He'll hit closer to WR3 territory, as in WR36.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
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