Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Game On!
I'm not here to pretend Thursday night's Hall of Fame game in Canton -- a tilt that opened with a Trey Lance to Will Dissly touchdown pass -- was meaningful.
Or even good.
The Chargers beat the Lions 34-7 in a game that Detroit head coach Dan Campbell said didn't meet his club's standards. I can't say it met mine, either.
But we'll get over it.
Because the best thing about the Hall of Fame game is the fact that it signals more is coming.
Who has two thumbs and gets twenty-five straight weeks of football games starting tonight?
— Footballguys Fantasy Football (@Footballguys) July 31, 2025
Footballguys (and you!)
The NFL is back tonight!!! pic.twitter.com/yFXDaZ3eVY
Steel yourselves, folks. The fun has just begun . . .
Speaking Of Canton
There will be no Fantasy Notebook next week. That's because I'll be attending the Fantasy Football Expo in Canton, with festivities throughout the weekend, including events at the Hall of Fame. I won't be there alone. The Expo draws a great mix of fantasy content creators (including many of your favorite Footballguy staffers) and consumers.
For me, it's the best opportunity to interact with and get one-on-one feedback from readers, listeners, and viewers.
So don't be shy. I'm looking forward to saying hello . . .
Coming Soon
The Footballguys Training Camp Reports will crank up this week. You'll get everything you need to know about each NFL team in the preseason -- updated weekly -- through September. The focus is on the players you're most interested in, but we'll go deeper, too. The Training Camp Reports will give an edge in identifying the sleepers and busts that can make or break your season . . .
Meanwhile, Plenty is Going On
If you're just diving back into the fantasy fray, Footballguy Ryan Weisse has just what you need: "Welcome Back to Fantasy Football: A Recap of the 2025 Offseason." It's a great way to catch up on major developments.
Already up to speed on big picture stuff? Our Dave Kluge has the scoop that matters most this week in his latest NFL Training Camp Storylines For All 32 Teams.
Otherwise, we're almost through our series featuring the incoming playcallers and offensive masterminds that will play massive roles in the 2025 fantasy season. For those just tuning in, the Fantasy Notebook has covered playcaller changes in Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Francisco over the last three months.
So, let's dive into the next one . . .
Getting Coordinated: Seahawks Shifting Gears . . . Again
As ESPN.com's Brady Henderson reminded readers, back in 2018, then-Seahawks coach Pete Carroll wanted to revive a stagnant Seattle run game. The first step was a change at offensive coordinator, with Brian Schottenheimer taking over for Darrell Bevell.
The Seahawks would lead the NFL in rushing yards that season in large part because Schottenheimer ran the ball more often than anyone else -- by a wide margin.
Seven years later, Mike Macdonald is embarking on a similar endeavor. . .
Sort Of
Seattle finished 28th in rushing in 2024, prompting the firing of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Macdonald hired offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as Grubb's replacement to lean more on the run game than his fired predecessor did.
But neither Kubiak's history nor his comments at an introductory press conference gave the impression that the shift will be as drastic as it was in 2018, when Seattle went from one of the least committed running teams to the very top of the league in that regard, with a designed rush rate of 49.3 percent.
Instead, Kubiak has been preaching offensive balance, with an oft-repeated line about being able to beat defenses in multiple ways.
At one point this week, Kubiak suggested the run game would be Seattle's offensive identity. He was then asked why that's important. "Sometimes you've got to drop back 50 times to win the game," he said. "And sometimes you've got to run it 50 times. We want to be able to win multiple ways."
Kubiak, however, has followed a clear path as a playcaller . . .
Run Heavier, Relatively Speaking
The two offenses Kubiak previously coordinated finished outside the top 10 in designed rush rate, with the 2021 Vikings ranking 11th (39.6 percent) and the 2024 Saints 14th (39.8 percent).
Over the six games in which Kubiak called plays for Denver in the second half of 2022, the Broncos were 20th (35.9 percent).
Of course, as Henderson suggested, "Any of that would qualify as run-heavy compared to Grubb," whose Seahawks ran the ball infrequently (29th in designed rush rate at 33.7 percent) and not all that effectively (28th at 95.7 yards per game), which put too much pressure on quarterback Geno Smith.
Seattle intends to keep that pressure off their new quarterback, Sam Darnold, this season . . .
Orders From Above
The directive to run the ball more effectively comes from the top. "Coach Macdonald has stressed from the beginning the things that he's looking for, and the type of offense that he seeks," Kubiak said upon arrival.
Kubiak further explained: "We're going to have an identity, we want to be smart, we want to be tough, we want to be physical. Those are three critical attributes, but it's important that we can run the football, that we're a successful throwing team."
The latter will depend heavily on Darnold, who revived his career in 2024, setting career highs in completion percentage (66.2 percent), yards (4,319), and touchdown passes (35) while leading the Vikings to a 14-2 record.
But make no mistake, the Seahawks aren't where the Vikings were this time last year . . .
The Rebuild Is On
Smith, who completed 68.5 percent of his pass attempts while throwing for 12,961 yards, 76 touchdowns, and 36 picks in 54 games (52 starts) in Seattle, was traded to the Raiders, where he'll be reunited with Carroll in Las Vegas.
But the changes didn't end there.
The Seahawks also jettisoned two cornerstones of their passing attack by dealing DK Metcalf to the Steelers and releasing veteran Tyler Lockett.
So, the Seahawks head into the 2025 season with a new offense, led by a new playcaller and a revamped receiving corps, all while betting on Darnold to be their quarterback of the future . . .
A Smart Bet?
As noted above, Darnold had a nice bounce-back in 2024, playing MVP-level football for the Vikings.
But, as Kluge pointed out, Darnold had a lot of help in Minnesota.
"Many Darnold doubters quickly point out the supporting cast and coaching staff," Kluge wrote. "Kevin O'Connell has deservedly earned the 'Quarterback Whisperer' label throughout his career. Throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson can cover up a lot of flaws. He also benefited from an above-average offensive line and run game.
"He won't be afforded those same luxuries in Seattle."
Indeed, our colleague Matt Waldman notes that Darnold leaves a team with a high-end primary receiver in Jefferson and joins a team that arguably has a fantastic WR2 in Jaxson Smith-Njigba, a strong WR2/WR3 in offseason addition Cooper Kupp, and a deep threat in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a "throw-2-get-1-caught" option, who won't earn the level of respect to generate great offense.
While Waldman acknowledges the possibility that it could all work out, he doesn't think we'll see Darnold reach 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns . . .
So, Is It A Smart Investment For Us?
Darnold was the QB9 last season. He averaged 18.8 points per game in Minnesota.
His Footballguys Projection, QB25, Footballguys consensus ranking, QB25, and current Average Draft Position (ADP), QB27, all fall far short of that.
That less-than-enthusiastic view of Darnold's outlook prompted Footballguy Andy Hicks to suggest. "Ranking him so low seems like a gift for fantasy managers to get a terrific bargain and a value fantasy backup. If he plays like he did for 90 percent of 2024, he could even be a fantasy starter.
"Darnold has proven himself resilient and bounced back from all sorts of obstacles."
Even if you don't buy everything Hicks is selling here, it's hard to argue against the view that Darnold is available at discount prices.
Some of that might be due to all the talk about the rushing attack . . .
Playing To Their Strength
While the Seahawks' run game experienced a brief breakout in December with a gap-scheme attack, Kubiak's forte is the outside zone.
Henderson notes that New Orleans ran the second-highest percentage of outside zone runs last season, and Kubiak plans to make that the focal point of Seattle's rushing attack.
And that's why Kubiak is fired up about Ken Walker III. "We're going to get the ball to our best runners -- and that's [Walker]."
Walker missed six games last year but still averaged 16.5 points per game -- 12th among RBs -- despite finishing as RB27 overall.
Zach Charbonnet is still on board, but ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out the split wasn't close when both played last year.
In 11 games together, Walker handled 68 percent of carries and 14 percent of targets, compared to Charbonnet's 19 percent and 8 percent. Charbonnet averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game in those weeks.
I spoke with Tacoma News Tribune beat writer Greg Bell on Friday, and he was adamant in insisting this is not a 1A-1B situation. Walker is going to play a featured role, with Charbonnet used to spell him if all goes as planned.
That being the case, we shouldn't overlook Walker as a receiving option.
"I've seen the guy catch the ball well out of the backfield, which I think is really important for our backs that we utilize them," Kubiak said of Walker this week. "Obviously, whatever we can do to get him touches, throwing him routes out of the backfield, throwing him screens -- whatever it takes to get the ball in his hands . . . Looking forward to him in this scheme."
Assuming Seattle can improve up front (Footballguy Matt Bitonti ranked their offensive line as 30th last year; they're at 28th this year), a healthy Walker could be a top-10 back.
He's being drafted, however, as RB16 in the fourth round. In a run-centric offense, Walker has league-winning upside if he fulfills his potential. . .
Digging Deeper?
Waldman advised readers that Kubiak is likely to ride Walker heavily, knowing he has two proven workhorses behind him in Charbonnet and Damien Martinez.
Charbonnet is being drafted as RB36 at the end of Round 9.
Meanwhile, with Kenny McIntosh suffering a torn ACL early in camp, Martinez has a clear path to a roster spot if he can move ahead of holdover George Holani . . .
One Thing
Bell also told me on Friday that the Seahawks are installing plays to take advantage of rookie quarterback Jalen Milroe's athleticism.
In Thursday's practice, Bell reported that Milroe kept the ball and ran around the end on bootlegs that appeared to be runs called by Kubiak. Those fake handoff and roll-out keepers are likely to be the plays Kubiak will have for Milroe in special packages for each game this season.
If those plays come at the goal line, the third-team quarterback is going to be in position to vulture a touchdown or two. It doesn't make Milroe a fantasy prospect this year, but it could impact the rest of the backfield if we see him on the field more often than we expect . . .
Something's Gotta Give On The Outside
Waldman contends the pairing of Kupp and Smith-Njigba in Seattle is one of the most interesting personnel moves for an offense this year.
It's not hard to figure out why.
According to FantasyPoints Data, 65 percent of Kupp's routes and 84 percent of Smith-Njigba's were run from the slot.
However, Footballguy Jeff Blaylock believes Kubiak can effectively utilize two star slot receivers. As part of that, Blaylock expects Smith-Njigba to line up outside more because Metcalf and Lockett are gone.
That makes sense.
The question is, will JSN, who drew a 23 percent target share last year (with 137 looks), continue to get the kind of volume that led to a WR10 finish on the season last year?
Waldman is projecting 150 targets, 100 catches, and 1,100 yards for Smith-Njigba with perhaps close to 10 scores.
If Waldman is right, last year's finish suggests that this year's Footballguys WR14 projection and current WR15 ADP are both slightly low . . .
Washed Or Nah?
Footballguy Meng Song reminded readers there's a reason the Rams moved on from Kupp this offseason: "He looked spent last year, and doesn't offer much upside at age 32 with Darnold."
However, our Jason Wood recently advised readers that even with Kupp past his prime, the veteran wide receiver's draft price makes it worth the risk.
Kupp finished as WR21 on a per-game basis last year, yet fantasy managers are treating him like he's already fallen off the age cliff. This year, the former Rams standout should see steady volume as the clear No. 2 option.
Wood explained, "Kupp doesn't need to replicate last year's numbers to return value. His current ADP (WR42) suggests he won't even be in your starting lineup most weeks, which feels overly pessimistic. The odds of a healthy Kupp not delivering weekly starter value seem quite low, making him a bet worth taking at cost."
That sounds about right, because the next Seahawk wideout on the board is Valdes-Scantling, who's currently going undrafted as the 120th wide receiver on the Footballguys Consensus ADP Rankings . . .
Tight End Fliers Available Here
With only two fantasy-worthy wideouts, you might think there's room for a tight end to make some hay in this offense.
So far, fantasy investors don't see it that way.
While it seems like rookie Elijah Arroyo is in a better spot following the release of Noah Fant, A.J. Barner could still open the season atop the depth chart after starting six games as a rookie last year. And even if Barner doesn't hold onto that starting role, Arroyo might need time to get rolling.
The newcomer played a limited role over his first three seasons with the Miami Hurricanes but broke through in 2024, posting 590 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 35 catches with Cam Ward as his quarterback.
The Seahawks drafted Arroyo knowing he could become a long-term starter, and Fant's release should give him that opportunity sooner rather than later.
The good news?
If you're interested in Arroyo's play-making ability, you can acquire him for nearly free, as he's being drafted as TE28 outside of Round 20. Unless you're in a super-deep league, Arroyo is more likely to be a player on your waiver-wire watch list to open the season than he is to be on a roster . . .
This And That: Year-2 Quarterbacks On The Rise Edition
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Time to get a feel for some players and situations of interest as teams start getting to work in advance of the 2025 NFL season . . .
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