Josh Allen: Does He Deserve the QB1 Rank?

Jason Wood takes a detailed look at Josh Allen's fantasy prospects for the 2024 season.

Jason Wood's Josh Allen: Does He Deserve the QB1 Rank? Jason Wood Published 08/04/2024

The Consensus Top Dog

Josh Allen has been one of the best fantasy players at any position for the last four seasons. He has finished as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback three times and came in a close second in the other year. His dual-threat abilities set him apart in an era of mobile quarterbacks, and he once again ranks as the top option across the industry.

Allen is the consensus QB1 across the industry. He is our consensus QB1, as well, with 9 of 13 staffers ranking him QB1. One staffer ranks him QB2, two more (me included) rank him QB3, and one ranks him QB4. No one ranks him lower. His ADP is QB1, and he is 27th overall.

Is History on His Side?

Josh Allen is in rarified air. He's been a top-2 fantasy quarterback in four consecutive seasons, and if our 2024 rankings are accurate, he's set to make it a five-year streak. For context, I looked at the top-3 fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last 25 seasons. 

Top-3 Fantasy (Points per Game) QBs (2009-2023, Minimum 8 Games)

PlayerTop-3 FinishesLongest Top-3 StreakYears
Aaron Rodgers752008-2012, 2014, 2016
Josh Allen442020-2023
Donovan McNabb432002, 2004-2006
Drew Brees532008, 2009, 2011-2013
Daunte Culpepper422000, 2001, 2003, 2004
Jalen Hurts222002, 2023
Jeff Garcia322000, 2001, 2003
Russell Wilson322014, 2015, 2017
Tom Brady622007, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2021
Alex Smith112017
Andrew Luck112014
Ben Roethlisberger312007, 2009, 2018
Brian Griese112000
Cam Newton112015
Carson Palmer112005
Carson Wentz112017
Deshaun Watson112019
Justin Herbert112021
Kurt Warner2119,992,001
Kyler Murray112020
Lamar Jackson212019, 2023
Marc Bulger112005
Matt Ryan212016, 2018
Matthew Stafford112019
Michael Vick312002, 2006, 2010
Nick Foles112013
Patrick Mahomes II312018, 2020, 2022
Peyton Manning312004, 2006, 2013
Philip Rivers112008
Rich Gannon112002
Robert Griffin III112012
Steve Beuerlein111999
Steve McNair211999, 2003
Tony Romo112007

Key Takeaways

  • Aaron Rodgers is the only player with a five-year consecutive streak and the overall leader with seven top-3 finishes.
  • Tom Brady had six top-3 finishes but never did it for more than two consecutive years.
  • Drew Brees achieved five top-3 finishes, with his longest streak being three years.
  • Josh Allen is already alone in second place with his four-year streak.

While rare, it's not impossible for Allen to deliver another top-3 finish in 2024.

Life without Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs is now a Houston Texan. Regardless of what you think about Diggs in 2024 and beyond, it's impossible to overstate how valuable he was to Josh Allen during his 4-year run atop the fantasy rankings.

Stefon Diggs Stats and % of Bills Passing Game (2020-2023)

YearGmsTgtsRecsYdsYPRTDs%Tgts%Recs%Yds%TDs
2020161661271,53512.1827.9%31.0%33.2%20.0%
2021171641031,22511.91025.0%24.8%28.6%27.8%
2022161541081,42913.21126.8%29.9%34.1%31.4%
2023171601071,18311.1827.6%27.8%28.5%27.6%
Average16.51611111,34312.19.326.8%28.4%31.1%26.7%

Diggs was an alpha in the true sense, commanding nearly 27% of Josh Allen's targets, passing touchdowns, and over 31% of his passing yards. But the 2023 stat line hides a mysterious falloff in Diggs' performance late in the season. 

  • Weeks 1-9: WR4 with 70 receptions, 834 yards, and 7 touchdowns
  • Weeks 10-18: WR45 with 37 receptions, 349 yards and one touchdown

The question we need answered is how Diggs' drop-off affected Josh Allen's fantasy value. The answer? Not at all.

  • Weeks 1-9: QB2 with 2,423 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 233 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns
  • Weeks 10-18: QB1 with 1,883 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 9 interceptions, 291 rushing yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns

Allen remained atop the fantasy standings (in fact, he went from QB2 to QB1), although how he got there changed. His passing effectiveness fell off considerably, but his rushing touchdowns spiked enough to keep him atop the rankings. 

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a 100% FREE Insider account.

By signing up and providing us with your email address, you're agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive emails from Tennessee.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

Featured Articles

 

Quarterback Rankings and Tiers: One Staffer's Opinion

Dave Kluge

Quarterback rankings provided by Dave Kluge, with explanations on where and why he strays from consensus opinions.

07/15/25 Read More
 
 
 
 
The Myth of Geno Smith
Jason Wood
07/14/25 Read More

More by Jason Wood

 

Justin Fields: Overvaluing Rushing Upside

Jason Wood

Jason Wood deep dives on what Justin Fields rushing upside doesn't justify his ADP.

07/14/25 Read More
 

The Myth of Geno Smith

Jason Wood

Jason Wood takes a look at Geno Smith and how his reputation is living off one outlier season in 2022.

07/14/25 Read More
 

What to Expect from the New Play-Callers

Jason Wood

A deep dive into the 12 new NFL play-callers

07/11/25 Read More
 

15 Make Or Break Wide Receiver Situations in 2025

Jason Wood

These receiver situations will define whether you dominate your draft.

06/05/25 Read More
 

11 Running Back Situations You Must Get Right in 2025

Jason Wood

These running back situations are the ones most likely to make or break your draft.

06/04/25 Read More
 

10 Quarterback Situations That Will Define Your Draft in 2025

Jason Wood

We look at the 10 QB situations that will most impact your fantasy success or failure

06/02/25 Read More